Agriculture & Food

During the North Atlantic Seafood Forum (NASF), Gorjan Nikolik, the chief seafood analyst of Rabobank, shared the global seafood import and export customs data. In 2022, China became the net importer of seafood for the first time, and the first net exporter was replaced by Norway.

Nikolik said: "In the past 20 years, China has always been a net exporter of seafood. In 2022, they joined other large economies and are no longer a net exporter. How will China's seafood import and export trade develop in the future? I think the answer is obvious. China's population is gradually aging, and the Chinese market is increasingly dependent on imports."

Nikolik pointed out that the dramatic changes in the Chinese market mean that the global seafood trade pattern has taken on a new look. Compared with the lineup before the epidemic in 2019, the list of net exporters in 2022 gives a very different feeling. According to customs data, Norway has been ranked second in the past decade. Last year, its net export volume was US $14.5 billion, ranking first for the first time. Ecuador's net exports are also growing rapidly, increasing from US $2.8 billion to US $9.2 billion in ten years. "Norway currently ranks first, but will Ecuador surpass Norway in the next 10 or 20 years, or before 2030? You know, the growth of Ecuador's white shrimp production is an order of magnitude, and the growth of Norway's export volume can only be based on the rise of salmon prices."

"The Ecuadorian industry expects that the output of white shrimp will maintain double-digit growth this year. What will happen in the future? Perhaps next year or a few years later, we may see a new market situation, let us wait and see." Nikolik said.

Customs data show that during the COVID-19 epidemic, the export trade of salmon and shrimp grew against the trend, and the global trade volume of both now exceeds 25 billion dollars. According to customs data, the trade volume of shrimp plate will increase by 6.2% in 2022 and 19.8% in 2021. According to customs data, the trade volume of salmon will increase by 11.5% in 2022 and 21.3% in 2021.

Nikolik explained that the growth of shrimp trade volume was driven by the production of Ecuador, and the sharp rise of prices in the past two years was behind the growth of salmon trade volume. According to the calculation of Rabobank, if the growth rate of shrimp and salmon is maintained, the trade volume between them will exceed that of poultry and pork by 2030, but it is far from reaching the market size of beef (US $55 billion).