Agriculture & Food

During the North Atlantic Seafood Forum (NASF), Gorjan Nikolik, Chief Seafood Analyst at Rabobank, shared global seafood import and export customs data. In 2022, China became a net importer of seafood for the first time, with Norway replacing it as the first net exporter.

Nikolik said, "In the past 20 years, China has always been a net exporter of seafood. In 2022, they joined other large economies and are no longer a net exporter. How will China's seafood import and export trade develop in the future? I think the answer is clear. China's population is gradually aging, and the Chinese market is increasingly dependent on imports

Nikolik pointed out that the significant changes in the Chinese market mean that the global seafood trade pattern has taken on a new look, and compared to the pre pandemic lineup in 2019, the list of net exporting countries in 2022 gives a very different feeling. According to customs data, Norway has been ranked second in the past decade, with a net export value of $14.5 billion last year, making it the first to jump to the top of the list. Ecuador's net exports are also growing rapidly, increasing from $2.8 billion to $9.2 billion within a decade. Norway is currently ranked first, but will Ecuador surpass Norway in the next 10 or 20 years, or before 2030? It should be noted that the growth in Ecuador's white shrimp production is an order of magnitude, and Norway's export growth can only be based on the rise in salmon prices

The Ecuadorian industry expects double digit growth in white shrimp production this year. What will happen in the future? Perhaps next year or a few years from now, we may see a new market situation, let's wait and see, "Nikolik said.

Customs data show that during the COVID-19 epidemic, the export trade of salmon and shrimp grew against the trend, and the global trade volume of both now exceeds 25 billion dollars. Customs data shows that in 2022, the trade volume of the shrimp sector increased by 6.2%, and in 2021, it increased by 19.8%. According to customs data, the trade volume of salmon increased by 11.5% in 2022 and 21.3% in 2021.

Nikolik explained that the growth in shrimp trade was driven by Ecuador's production, and behind the growth in salmon trade was the sharp rise in prices over the past two years. According to calculations by Rabobank, if the growth rate of shrimp and salmon is maintained, the trade volume between the two will exceed that of poultry and pork by 2030, but it is still far from reaching the market size of beef ($55 billion).