Agriculture & Food

According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, Professor Rad Popovich of the Subotica School of Economics believes that from the animal husbandry report in the past 15 years, Serbia will have a shortage of milk. The shortage of milk will continue next year until the problem of cow feed is completely solved.

The Political Daily reported on October 28 that Rade Popovi of Subotica School of Economics ć） According to the professor, it can be seen from the animal husbandry report in the past 15 years that Serbia will have a shortage of milk. The shortage of milk will continue next year until the problem of cow feed is completely solved.

Popovich said that Serbia produces about 1.5 billion liters of milk every year, enough to meet the demand of the domestic market, of which 2% to 3% are also used for export. However, the number of dairy cows has been decreasing, especially in Vojvodina, where the yield has not decreased significantly because the milk yield of single dairy cow on larger farms has increased. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

In 2021, Serbia produced 1.47 billion liters of milk. However, according to the survey on agricultural production and operation units in 2018, the total number of production and operation units engaged in animal husbandry decreased by 20% compared with 2012. After that, there were two dry years. There was not enough corn in the grain or silage reserves in 2021, and the situation was even worse in 2022. People are just beginning to realize these problems, and will feel more strongly about the shortage next year. In the next feed production cycle, that is, before there is silage or alfalfa again from May, the farmers will reduce the feed feeding amount of cows, and the milk output will be reduced by 10% to 15%. In addition to the decrease in the number of cows, people's consumption is increasing. The per capita milk consumption in Serbia has increased from 195 liters to 215 liters, and the demand for various cheeses, butter and spread has also increased.

According to the observation report of Huacheng import and export data, in the long run, due to the price restrictions of traders and the state, a temporary bumper harvest cannot solve the problem, and the current milk import is not sustainable, which cannot solve the problems of the Serbian market itself. The essence of the problem is not the increase of demand, but the chain rupture from production to market. For a long time, there has been good cooperation between dairy producers and farmers in Serbia. According to Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation, since 2005, market forces have been taken over by retail chains that control milk prices and milk product types. In order to survive, dairy dealers will transfer the burden to the country and dairy farmers. The international milk price is 60 euro cents per liter, but in Serbia, the price is only 30 euro cents, although the country tries to make up for it by introducing premium. This is a long-term problem. Dairy farmers can no longer generate income and survive, especially small farms without bargaining power. At present, the production conditions of milk are deteriorating. Dairy farmers cannot cope with the low price of milk. In addition, the shortage of feed and the rise of feed price will reduce or completely stop the production of milk. In addition, market panic will also lead to a shortage of milk, enlarging the shortage from 10% to 15% to 30%. In addition, due to the restrictions on the price of dairy products, the merchants shifted dairy products to exports in pursuit of good business performance, which also caused a shortage.

In the milk supply chain, dairy farmers are the only people who do not have their own organization. Around the world, up to 90% of milk is produced through cooperatives. Farmers invest in dairy products and then push them to the trade chain, which has nothing to do with the scale of farming. As dairy products are in the hands of farmers, they have better bargaining power. However, it is up to the farmers themselves to actively protect their interests. This is a huge investment with great risks, but it is the only way to improve their situation, Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported.