Agriculture & Food

Recently, customs data showed that China's total import and export of agricultural products in 2022 reached 334.32 billion US dollars, up 9.9% year on year. According to customs data, the import of agricultural products reached 236.06 billion US dollars, up 7.4% year on year; Exports reached US $98.26 billion, up 16.5% year on year.

Experts said that with the continuous upgrading of the residents' dietary structure, the consumption of agricultural products will still increase rigidly, and it is expected that China's import and export of agricultural products will continue to maintain a stable growth in the future.

There is a foundation for continuing to maintain steady growth

"According to the customs data, China's agricultural exports will increase by 16.5% in 2022, which is the fastest growth rate in the past 10 years, far higher than the average annual growth rate of 3.5% in 2012-2021." Yang Jun, director of the Digital Economy Laboratory of the University of International Business and Economics, told the International Business News that there are both general changes and some short-term sudden changes behind the rapid growth of China's agricultural exports.

"In terms of the general change rule, the export of agricultural products with trade comparative advantages, such as aquatic products, vegetables, fruits and other products, has maintained a rapid growth. According to the customs data, it has increased by 10.5% and 20.5% respectively compared with 2021. From the perspective of changes induced by short-term factors, China's tobacco and its products, and modified animal and vegetable fats have increased rapidly, with an increase of 960.8% and 52.3% respectively, which is extremely significant for the export of China's agricultural products." Yang Jun further said.

According to customs data, in the import of agricultural products, China's grain import will decrease by 18.6% year-on-year in 2022, and the net import will decrease by 19.1%. At the same time, the import of cotton, oil, sugar, vegetables and other agricultural products has declined to varying degrees.

"The number of grain imports such as soybeans has decreased, and the degree of dependence on foreign countries has declined. On the one hand, the international grain price has increased due to extreme weather and regional conflicts, which has to some extent restrained the grain import; on the other hand, China has continued to increase its investment to support grain production. In 2022, the grain production will increase and harvest will be high, for example, the soybean production will reach a 'new level' of 20 million tons." said Wang Xuejun, professor of the School of Economics and Management of Nanjing Agricultural University.

In addition, Wang Xuejun analyzed that the trade balance of aquatic products, which has maintained the export advantage for a long time, will change from surplus to deficit, which is also a new change in 2022. According to him, aquatic products have always been China's largest export advantage agricultural products. In 2022, the import volume of aquatic products will exceed the export volume, with a trade deficit of 690 million dollars. "This is mainly due to the continuous increase of domestic aquatic products consumption and the rapid growth of imports in recent years. At the same time, the fierce competition of Southeast Asian countries has also affected the export of Chinese aquatic products."

"With the continuous development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, China's demand for high-quality agricultural products will continue to increase and promote the growth of agricultural imports." Lin Faqin, a professor of the School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, told the International Business News reporter, "At the same time, China's position in the global economy is increasingly prominent, China's agricultural modernization level is constantly improving, and the increasing demand for food safety and environment-friendly agricultural products in the international market will also promote the export of China's agricultural products. It is expected that China's agricultural products import and export will continue to maintain a stable growth trend in the next few years."

Enhance export competitiveness and promote import diversification

In order to better promote the "going out" of China's agricultural products, Lin Faqin suggested that the construction of domestic agricultural infrastructure should be strengthened, agricultural productivity and quality of agricultural products should be improved, so as to better meet the needs of domestic and foreign markets; Improve the certification and inspection standards of agricultural products to ensure the quality and safety of agricultural products; Strengthen the development of agricultural products export market, open up new agricultural products export market and improve the international competitiveness and influence of agricultural products by participating in international agricultural products exhibitions, developing foreign agricultural technology cooperation and other measures.

In Wang Xuejun's view, the export of agricultural products needs to strengthen the promotion of agricultural trade in terms of quality improvement, brand building and standardized production. "Specifically, we should speed up the construction of agricultural product export demonstration bases, and ensure the quality of exported agricultural products by means of regional and three-dimensional management; increase support for the development of advantageous agricultural products brands, encourage enterprises to participate in international certification and registration, and effectively carry out international mutual recognition cooperation; accelerate the transformation and application of domestic agricultural standards and international standards, and improve China's participation and voice in the formulation of international standards."

As for the import of agricultural products, the industry generally believes that China should further promote the optimization of the structure of imported agricultural products on the basis of ensuring the effective supply of important agricultural products, so as to better meet the demand for upgrading the quality of domestic consumption.

In addition, Wang Xuejun suggested that China should enhance the controllability of the import supply chain, improve the domestic industrial damage monitoring and warning mechanism, and prevent and resolve the volatility and uncertainty of the international agricultural product market.

Yang Jun also said that China should attach great importance to the diversification of agricultural imports. He suggested that the existing important supply channels should be guaranteed, and the guarantee and influence of the whole industrial chain in the supply of production resources, production monitoring, storage and transportation, market sales and other important supply areas should be strengthened. At the same time, expand new supply channels, actively explore and pragmatically develop the agricultural production capacity of regions with resource advantages, combine the advantages of China's agricultural production equipment and technology with the advantages of water and soil resources in these regions, steadily improve its agricultural production capacity, and gradually integrate into the supply network.

On this basis, we should increase agricultural cooperation with less developed countries and regions such as Africa and South Asia. "These regions still face relatively serious food shortages, and are the regions with the largest and fastest growth in net food imports in the world. Improving their food supply capacity has a positive role and great significance in improving the global food supply, reducing the price of agricultural products, and ensuring China's food security." Yang Jun said.