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High-frequency data shows that since July, my country's international trade has continued to show a recovery trend. Experts believe that the "strong" data proves that my country's exports are "hard". my country's export industry chain has a wide coverage and strong resilience, and can meet the differentiated needs of different economies. It is expected that exports will maintain a high degree of prosperity in the second half of the year.

Foreign trade has remained stable since July

Following the double-digit year-on-year growth of my country's exports in the first half of the year, from the perspective of high-frequency data, the foreign trade situation has been relatively stable since July, and the port throughput has stabilized and rebounded.

In mid-July, the cargo throughput of key coastal hub ports monitored by the China Ports Association increased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was faster than the previous period. Among them, the foreign trade cargo throughput increased by 5.9% year-on-year, 4.8 percentage points faster than the previous period. During the same period, the container throughput of the eight major coastal hub ports increased by 6.1% year-on-year, of which the foreign trade business performed strongly with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. In addition, monitoring data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange showed that as of July 22, the China Export Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) last reported 3,230 points, continuing the momentum of stabilization and recovery since mid-May.

In the first half of the year, my country's foreign trade overcame the influence of various unfavorable factors and showed strong development resilience. Political Commissar Lu, Chief Economist of Industrial Bank, analyzed that this resilience is rooted in the comparative advantages of my country's industrial chain, and it also reflects that my country's foreign trade has strengthened its ability to resist various risks and challenges under the new situation of industrial upgrading and high-quality development. "Based on the production advantages of the whole industry chain, my country's exports can meet the diversified needs of different economies in different time periods," he said.

"In terms of products, in the early stage of the outbreak, epidemic prevention necessities and home economic necessities related to the epidemic were the main sources of my country's export growth; with the gradual recovery of the manufacturing industries in other economies around the world, the demand for intermediate goods and capital goods continued to grow, becoming the main source of growth in China's exports. The main force driving my country's export growth." Political commissar Lu said, taking the June data as an example, the main driving force for my country's export growth is mechanical and electrical products.

Consumer goods exports are expected to become a new bright spot

In view of factors such as relatively stable external demand, the effect of stabilizing foreign trade policies, and the advantages of the supply chain, industry insiders believe that in the next stage, my country's foreign trade will still face many favorable conditions to stabilize and improve the quality, and the export of social travel-related consumer goods may become a new bright spot.

Regarding the future development of international trade, Li Kuiwen, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, said recently that my country's economy has strong resilience, sufficient potential, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed. With the implementation of the country's package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, and the orderly progress of resumption of work and production, international trade is still expected to maintain steady growth.

Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Shu Jueting introduced that in the second half of the year, the Ministry of Commerce will work with all localities and relevant departments to focus on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, stabilizing foreign trade market players, strengthening guarantees, stabilizing foreign trade production and circulation, grabbing orders, and helping Enterprises are developing markets, promoting innovation, and cultivating new growth points of foreign trade, so as to promote foreign trade to achieve the goal of "maintaining stability and improving quality".

Looking forward to the future, Chen Zhiyi believes that the social and travel needs brought about by the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control in Europe and the United States will continue to be released. At present, the production of ASEAN countries continues to recover, and the manufacturing PMIs of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand are all above the line of prosperity and decline, which is conducive to the export of relevant upstream products in my country. In terms of commodities, the electromechanical intermediate products and capital products that complement ASEAN, as well as social and travel-related consumer goods exported to the United States are expected to become the highlights of my country's exports in the second half of the year.

In June, consumer goods, including shoes, bags, toys, cars and clothing, were relatively well exported. "At present, the domestic consumer demand in the United States is relatively good. Judging from the inventory-to-sales ratio of the sub-sectors of US wholesalers, the inventory-to-sales ratio of automobiles, auto parts and clothing is relatively low. Looking ahead, it is expected that exports in these areas will still be It will be better than other industries." Cheng Qiang said.