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High frequency data shows that since July, China's international trade has continued to recover. Experts believe that the "strong" data proves that China's exports are "hard". China's export industry chain has a wide coverage and strong resilience, which can meet the differentiated needs of different economies. It is expected that the export will still maintain a high profile in the second half of the year.

Foreign trade has remained stable since July

Following the double-digit year-on-year growth of China's exports in the first half of the year, from the high-frequency data, the foreign trade situation has been relatively stable since July, and the port throughput has recovered steadily.

In the middle of July, the cargo throughput of key coastal hub ports monitored by the China Ports Association increased by 4.3% year on year, accelerating the growth compared with the previous period. Among them, the cargo throughput of foreign trade increased by 5.9% year on year, 4.8 percentage points faster than the previous period. In the same period, the container throughput of the eight coastal hub ports increased by 6.1% year on year, of which the foreign trade business performed strongly, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%. In addition, the monitoring data of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange showed that as of July 22, the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) had recently reported 3230 points, continuing the steady recovery momentum since the middle of May.

In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade overcame various adverse factors and showed strong development resilience. According to Lu Zhengwei, the chief economist of Industrial Bank, this resilience is rooted in the comparative advantage of China's industrial chain, which also reflects the enhanced ability of China's foreign trade to withstand various risks and challenges under the new situation of industrial upgrading and high-quality development. "Based on the production advantages of the whole industrial chain, China's exports can meet the diversified needs of different economies in different periods of time." He said.

"In terms of products, at the beginning of the outbreak of the epidemic, epidemic prevention necessities and housing economy necessities related to the epidemic were the main sources of driving China's export growth; with the gradual repair of manufacturing in other global economic systems, the demand for intermediate goods and capital goods continued to grow, becoming the main force driving China's export growth." Political Commissar Lu said that, taking the data of June as an example, electromechanical products were the main driving force for China's export growth.

The export of consumer goods is expected to become a new highlight

In view of such factors as relatively stable external demand, emerging effects of stabilizing foreign trade policies, and advantages of supply chain, insiders believe that China's foreign trade stability and quality improvement still face many favorable conditions in the next stage, and the export of consumer goods related to social travel may become a new highlight.

With regard to the future development of international trade, Li Kuiwen, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis, said recently that the fundamentals of China's strong economic resilience, sufficient potential and long-term improvement have not changed. With the implementation of a package of national policies and measures to stabilize the economy and the orderly progress of resuming production, international trade is expected to maintain stable growth.

According to Shu Jueting, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, in the second half of the year, the Ministry of Commerce, together with local and relevant departments, will focus on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, stabilizing the main body of the foreign trade market, strengthening protection and stabilizing the production and circulation of foreign trade, seizing orders, helping enterprises to open up markets, promoting innovation, cultivating new growth points of foreign trade, and promoting foreign trade to achieve the goal of "maintaining stability and improving quality".

Looking into the future, Chen Zhiyi believes that the social and travel needs brought about by the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control in Europe and the United States will continue to be released. At present, the production of ASEAN countries continues to repair, and the PMI of Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and other manufacturing industries is above the boom and bust line, which is conducive to the export of relevant upstream products of China. In terms of commodities, the electromechanical intermediate goods and capital goods complementary to ASEAN, as well as social and travel related consumer goods exported to the United States, are expected to become the highlights of China's exports in the second half of the year.

The export of consumer goods in June, including shoes, bags, toys, cars and clothing, was good. "At present, the domestic consumption demand in the United States is good. From the perspective of the inventory sales ratio of the subdivided industries of American wholesalers, the inventory sales ratio of automobiles and auto parts and clothing is relatively low. Looking back, it is expected that exports in these areas will still be better than those in other industries." Cheng Qiang said.