Electrical Equipment / Components & Telecoms

"At present, my country's photovoltaic enterprises have a very strong willingness to expand production capacity. Almost every week, the industry releases information on production expansion, covering major upstream and downstream industries such as industrial silicon, silicon materials, silicon rods, silicon wafers, cells, and modules. Among them, there are 68 photovoltaic expansion projects in Jiangsu, 36 in Anhui, and 49 in Inner Mongolia.” Recently, Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said when talking about the future development of my country’s photovoltaic industry.

Statistics recently released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association show that from the beginning of 2021 to June this year, there have been more than 300 photovoltaic capacity expansion projects in my country. In the view of industry insiders, under the carbon neutrality goal, the overseas demand for photovoltaic power generation is soaring, resulting in sharp price fluctuations in the entire supply chain. In addition, the development of emerging photovoltaic technologies has triggered the demand for capacity substitution. Multiple factors have pushed my country's photovoltaic industry into a new round of production expansion. cycle. However, there is still great uncertainty as to whether the project can be successfully implemented in the end.

The international trade market demand is soaring, and domestic manufacturers take advantage of the momentum to expand production

Lu Chuan, chairman of Chint New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., pointed out that in the first half of this year, the installed capacity of the international trade photovoltaic market has grown significantly. Under the combined effect of the tense international geopolitical pattern and the global consensus on carbon neutrality goals, the global renewable energy transformation It will be further accelerated, and the demand for installed photovoltaic power generation capacity will expand rapidly. In this context, leading photovoltaic companies have increased their production capacity to stabilize their status as market players and continuously improve their competitiveness in the international trade market.

As an important supplier of global photovoltaic products, facing the fiery international trade market, my country's photovoltaic product manufacturers hope to meet the needs of the international market by expanding production. Taking the silicon material segment as an example, in 2021, among the top 10 polysilicon companies in the world, Chinese companies will occupy 7 seats. "In recent years, under the guidance and drive of low-carbon policies of various countries in the world, my country's photovoltaic industry has achieved rapid development and has become a veritable global photovoltaic core industry cluster. Last year, China's photovoltaic industry total exports reached 28.4 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 44%. The export volume of silicon wafers, cells and modules was 22.6 million kilowatts, 10.3 million kilowatts and 98.5 million kilowatts respectively, all hitting record highs," said Cao Renxian, chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association.

In the first half of this year, my country's photovoltaic products still maintained a good operating rate, achieving both volume and price increases.

"In the first six months, the total export volume of silicon wafers, cells and modules reached 25.9 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 113%, breaking the record again. Among them, the export volume of modules reached 78.6 million kilowatts, an increase of 74.3% year-on-year." Wang Bohua said, It is expected that the newly installed capacity of global photovoltaic power generation will exceed 205 million kilowatts this year. "If it is optimistic, it is expected to reach 250 million kilowatts."

Lu Chuan believes that due to the doubled growth in European demand for photovoltaics and inflation, the price of raw materials in the photovoltaic industry has risen, and the 15-year long-term power purchase agreement price of European photovoltaic power generation projects has also doubled. "Driven by the market, the domestic photovoltaic industry has begun a new round of capacity expansion."

The product enters the iterative cycle, and the N-type technical advantages appear

Lu Chuan said that at this stage, some external factors have greatly increased the demand for production capacity of photovoltaic products. In addition to the rising demand in the international trade market, technological iteration has also become an important factor in promoting capacity expansion. "At present, photovoltaic cell technology is showing a trend of changing from P-type to N-type, and photovoltaic companies have begun to put new production capacity. If a relatively stable technical direction is formed, it will bring another round of expansion caused by cell technological transformation. ."

Liu Yong, chairman of Yidao New Energy Technology (Quzhou) Co., Ltd., pointed out that improving the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic products is the main goal of technological innovation. For every 1% increase in product conversion efficiency, the cost will be reduced by 6%-7%. "At present, N-type technology is in the stage of rapid development, and the conversion efficiency of products is higher than that of P-type. The advantages have begun to emerge and are gradually accepted by the market."

According to Wang Bohua, the improvement of the conversion efficiency of the N-type battery technology laboratory has released a market-oriented signal. Since 2019, the frequency of record-breaking laboratory efficiency of N-type and P-type products is basically the same. Since then, N-type technology has developed rapidly, and the number of record-breaking laboratory conversion efficiency of N-type products has far exceeded that of P-type products. "Currently, the P-type PERC laboratory has the highest conversion efficiency of 24.5%, while the N-type TOPCcon single crystal and heterojunction cell laboratories have the highest conversion efficiencies of 25.7% and 26.5%, respectively."

"The advancement of N-type products has accelerated, and many central enterprises such as China General Nuclear Power New Energy, Huadian Group, China Nuclear Power, State Power Investment Corporation and other central enterprises have launched N-type component bidding. It has increased by 4 times. Photovoltaic companies have also released N-type products one after another, and the N-type cell expansion project accounts for 1/3 of the total cell expansion capacity.” Wang Bohua said.

Southwest Securities predicts that the technical transformation of most 166-size production lines will be completed in the third quarter of this year. It is expected that the supply of mainstream large-size cells will be improved starting in the fourth quarter. In addition, the planned mass production of N-type by professional cell manufacturers is also about to start. It is expected that by the end of this year, the overall production capacity of TOPCcon is expected to exceed 60 million kilowatts, and the overall production capacity of heterojunctions is expected to reach 14 million kilowatts.

Vertically integrated layout ensures supply chain security

Wang Bohua added that the strong willingness of photovoltaic enterprises to expand production capacity is also affected by the development trend of vertical integration of the industry. "Under the integration strategy, photovoltaic companies will consider which link they have insufficient production capacity or the upstream and downstream links are not supporting, and then expand production for a certain link and gradually improve the industrial chain."

It is understood that the vertical integration of the photovoltaic industry has distinct characteristics. Previously, most of the industry was a professional photovoltaic manufacturing enterprise focusing on a certain link of production. In recent years, the number of photovoltaic companies deploying the entire industry chain has been increasing.

Lu Chuan pointed out that the current photovoltaic supply chain price fluctuates wildly. "When a certain link in the current supply chain is particularly tense, vertical integration can ensure the supply of raw materials and products, with obvious advantages. However, in the face of industry technology and market changes, the vertical integration strategy is in capital recovery, technology iteration, production. Disadvantages such as efficiency and synergy will also appear. Each enterprise has different positioning and development goals in the next few years, and should rationally view the development direction of vertical integration according to its own situation, and make more cyclical arrangements.”

Wang Bohua also reminded that there is currently a problem of capacity mismatch in some links in the photovoltaic industry. The currently announced expansion projects are corporate planning projects, and there is still great uncertainty as to whether they can be implemented in the end. qualitative competition.

Zhong Baoshen, chairman of LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said that the problems of strong market demand and incompatibility among various links in the industrial chain are common in fast-growing industries. "If the industry develops slowly, the competition situation of the industry and the scale of the industry chain can be expected. The photovoltaic industry is in a state of vigorous development, and the market is more unpredictable. In this case, companies can analyze the 3-year to The demand and supply of the market within 5 years, according to industry trends and their own development trends to make reasonable plans."