Electrical Equipment / Components & Telecoms

The International Energy Agency predicts that after the outbreak of the Russian-Uzbekistan conflict, with the energy crisis prompting countries to transform to renewable energy, solar energy is booming, and solar power generation is expected to surpass coal-fired power generation by 2027.

The latest report of the International Energy Agency points out that by the beginning of 2025, renewable energy will become the largest power source in the world; From 2022 to 2027, as in the previous five years, the new installed capacity of renewable energy in the world will double.

It can be said that the wave of global energy transformation is ushering in the best development period for the photovoltaic industry. Today, the volume of China's photovoltaic industry has leapt to the first in the world. At the time of large-scale development, the whole industry has also waded into the "deep water zone". Expansion of production and cross-border has already become a high-frequency word, and the competition at home and abroad has become increasingly fierce.

Countries promote renewable energy

According to Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation, recently, the Director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said that countries are not only promoting the "development of new renewable energy" to achieve the goal of climate change control, but also achieving energy security and the "diversification" of renewable energy supply chain has become increasingly important. He pointed out that whether in the solar, wind, battery or electric vehicle industries, "the world's largest economy is in fierce competition to occupy a favorable position in the next era of industry," he said.

In fact, countries are scrambling to find alternatives to oil and natural gas that are no longer imported from Russia and to develop their renewable energy sectors. This upsurge has driven various industries to introduce incentives and subsidies.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted in its recently released annual report on renewable energy that from 2022 to 2027, the global installed capacity of renewable electricity will increase by 2400 gigawatts, equivalent to the current total installed capacity of China's electricity, which is 30% higher than the IEA's forecast a year ago.

The report points out that the United States and India will lead the diversification of the solar manufacturing supply chain and try to weaken China's leading position. From 2022 to 2027, the investment in solar energy in the United States and India is expected to be close to $25 billion, seven times that of the past five years.

However, according to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation, the International Energy Agency said that China would still be the "leader", and its market share was estimated to be about 75% in 2027, compared with 90% at present.

In the next two years, the development of solar energy will accelerate. Javier Bitri Solaun, head of sustainable energy business of Iverdrola Electric Power, a well-known European renewable energy company, said that the company plans to "more than double our global solar installed capacity to 10.6 gigawatts by the end of 2025".

The International Energy Agency pointed out that if European countries reduce the difficulty of new project approval, increase incentives for rooftop solar installations, and provide better conditions for renewable energy auctions, the growth rate of solar energy may be faster.

China's new PV installed capacity has reached a record high, and technological innovation is the key

"From January to October 2022, the new installed capacity of China's photovoltaic industry has exceeded that of the whole year of 2021." At the 2022 annual conference of China's photovoltaic industry, Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that the current new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic industry has reached a record high.

According to Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation, by the end of October 2022, China's installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was about 360 million kilowatts, up 29.2% year on year. In addition, the National Energy Administration also issued a notice recently, proposing that all power grid enterprises, under the premise of ensuring the security and stability of the power grid and the orderly supply of electricity, should take effective measures to ensure the timely grid connection of wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects that meet the conditions of grid connection in accordance with the principle of "merging as soon as possible and merging as soon as possible".

In the application market, from January to October 2022, the growth rate of China's new PV installed capacity reached 98.7%, and the new installed capacity jumped to 58.24GW, more than the whole year of 2021. Among them, the new installed capacity of distributed PV has risen rapidly, accounting for 67.2% of the total new installed capacity in the first three quarters.

However, under the consensus that cost reduction and efficiency increase are the first principles of the photovoltaic industry, behind the record-breaking development of scale, China's photovoltaic industry can not be separated from the drive of technological innovation.

Wang Bohua listed a new data in the report: China's photovoltaic industry "specialized and new" enterprises have increased year by year, and as of November 2022, 87 enterprises have won the title. Among them, only in 2022, 44 photovoltaic enterprises were selected for the evaluation of "specialized, special and new". These enterprises cover almost the entire photovoltaic manufacturing end, including laser cutting, string welding machine, junction box, inverter, battery detection, silicon wafer sorting, etc.

With the increase of R&D investment in China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry, technological innovation, mainly represented by crystalline silicon cells, has ushered in a boom period. From January to November 2022, the domestic crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell laboratory has set a total of 11 efficiency records, of which 8 are N-type battery technology.

Recently, according to the latest certification report of the Hamelin Solar Energy Research Institute (ISFH) in Germany, the conversion efficiency of the silicon heterojunction cell independently developed by Lunji Green Energy reached 26.81%, which has become the highest efficiency record of the silicon solar cell in the world. This is the latest world record since the Japanese company set a record of 26.7% of the efficiency of monocrystalline silicon cells in 2017. It is also the first time in the history of PV that a Chinese solar energy technology enterprise set a world record of the efficiency of silicon cells. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

Hidden uncertainty

Since 2022, domestic PV circuit cross-border players have emerged and launched a new round of layout in all links of the industrial chain. Wang Bohua said: "Enterprises from all walks of life have entered the manufacturing industry, including central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, and the competition is further intensified."

With the active investment promotion policies of local governments across the country, photovoltaic enterprises have successively expanded their production and layout in the northwest, southwest and southeast Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions. Qian Jing, vice president of Jingke Energy, said: "In the past, the manufacturing industry was concentrated in the southeast coastal areas with intensive talents and sufficient funds. In the future, it may move to the west. Most of the production bases will be in the northwest and southwest regions, which will cause a earth-shaking change to the unbalanced situation of China's economic development."

Wang Bohua said that the development of new energy manufacturing in foreign countries has risen to the government level, and there are goals, measures and steps. "Foreign countries not only support the manufacturing of domestic and local enterprises, but also try to restrain the development of China's industry, especially the United States, the European Union and India. This should cause close attention of our photovoltaic industry, and we should make more efforts in technological innovation," he said.

Wang Bohua also said: "Due to the unshakable advantages of Chinese enterprises in the mainstream track, foreign enterprises are trying to 'overtake' through new technologies. For example, the United States Department of Energy has established the 'Cadmium Telluride Development Alliance', the 'Solar PV Innovation Platform' has been restarted in Europe, and Japanese and Russian enterprises are accelerating the development of perovskite technology. These are some signs."

Wang Xin, Deputy Director of the Trade Relief and Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that "looking forward to the future, the situation in Ukraine has profoundly reshaped the global energy pattern. Under the dual consideration of ensuring the safety of the industrial chain and achieving the goal of carbon neutrality, the determination of the United States, the European Union, India, Türkiye, Australia and other major photovoltaic overseas markets to localize new energy manufacturing has become increasingly firm."

"In the past 10 years, through the joint efforts of the whole industry chain, China's photovoltaic industry has achieved leapfrog development, the industrial scale continues to expand, the technology continues to be updated iteratively, the cost of power generation has dropped by more than 90%, distributed and centralized, market and policy dual-wheel drive, completed the historical mission of de-subsidization to affordable access to the Internet, and is currently striding towards the leapfrog development from supplementary energy to alternative energy." Cao Renxian, chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, pointed out at the meeting.

Gao Jifan, the chairman of Trina Solar, also said that enterprises that have really been in the photovoltaic industry for 10 or 20 years value the future development of the industry. Because the entire photovoltaic industry has its own development expectations and laws, and there is an iteration on the product in three to five years, it should not be too radical, and the expansion plan should be rhythmic.

Qian Jing believes that there is no innovation in an industry when supply exceeds demand, because the market will absorb whatever the enterprise produces. Only when supply exceeds demand can enterprises be encouraged to innovate continuously.

Wang Xin, deputy director of the Trade Remedy Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce, suggested that we should adhere to the innovation-driven approach and improve our core competitiveness. "Low-price competition is no doubt a poison to quench thirst, and overseas factory construction can only solve the urgency of one place at a time. I hope that photovoltaic enterprises will continue to carry forward the fine tradition of technological innovation, actively open up new fields and new tracks, and constantly create new momentum and new advantages." He said that the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.