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China should regard semiconductors as the "ballast stone" in Sino US trade negotiations

2023-06-20

Shu Jueting, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said at the press conference held on June 1 that the US policies and export controls on Semiconductor industry such as the Chip and Science Law are important economic and trade concerns of China, and also key issues raised in the talks between China and the US. Both sides have had in-depth exchanges on this matter and agreed to continue discussions in the future.

Although there are many issues to be discussed between China and the United States, especially the Political status of Taiwan, which involves sovereignty, there is no room for negotiation. However, in the field of trade, the most important, urgent, and "ballast stone" issue at present is the semiconductor issue, that is, how to solve the adverse effects of the US Chip and Science Law on Chinese enterprises, economy, and high-tech after its introduction, and how to make the US abandon or reduce technology export restrictions to China to the greatest extent possible.

It is impossible for the United States to abandon its technology export restrictions on China. However, this does not mean that China can be passively beaten, passively accepted, and passively bear losses. Because between China and the United States, it is not a "active and passive relationship" where one party completely relies on the other, but a trade cooperation relationship that is interdependent and mutually supportive. The United States has its advantages, while China has China's strengths. The advantages of the United States cannot cover China's strengths, nor can China's strengths cover the advantages of the United States. If the United States wants to use its advantages to cover China's strengths, it can only suffer for itself and suffer huge losses. China, on the other hand, never intended to cover the advantages of the United States with its own strengths. Instead, it hoped that both sides could cooperate using their respective strengths and strengths to better leverage and expand their strengths, promote the development of bilateral trade in a better direction, and maximize the role of Sino US trade cooperation.

It is obvious that the US has a bit of overconfidence in its own strengths when evaluating its strengths, as overconfidence can cover China's strengths with its strengths. Therefore, regulations such as the "Chip and Science Law" have been introduced that completely deviate from the market and globalization, and are intended to suppress China, Chinese enterprises, and Chinese high-tech. Obviously, this is not allowed by the principle of market fairness, and it is also impossible and should not be achieved. Otherwise, the world cannot be fair, nor can it develop towards a healthy and orderly direction.

In recent times, the US has continuously released high-level signals of hope to visit China, including the Secretary of State, Minister of Finance, Minister of Commerce, and others, all hoping to visit China and engage in comprehensive discussions with China. During the recently held APEC Trade Ministers' Meeting, Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held talks with US Minister of Commerce Remondo and US Trade Representative Dai Qi respectively, and had a communication and discussion on issues of concern to both sides. However, it is not difficult to see that this communication and negotiation did not involve many specific issues, especially those of common concern to both parties. Instead, there was only symbolic communication and room for further communication. As foreign media have said, both sides are far from reaching the point where they can "bid for you, I bid for you". A deeper communication needs to see if the next steps between China and the United States can truly achieve ministerial level talks.

Whenever ministerial level talks between China and the United States are held, especially when US ministers visit China, one thing must be affirmed: in trade negotiations, China will definitely place semiconductors on the table of China US negotiations as a "ballast stone". Because China cannot dodge this issue, nor should it dodge it. It can even directly tell the US that if there is no room and space for negotiation on this issue, other issues will have no significance or value for negotiation. The semiconductor issue, to some extent, is also an aspect of high-tech sovereignty. The United States should not be allowed to use its own laws to prevent cooperation between Chinese and American enterprises, nor should it easily create strong pressure and resistance against Chinese high-tech enterprises.

The fact is that with the development of China US trade relations to the current level, there are no more things that can be 'reluctant', 'unable to let go', or 'unable to wipe away face'. If there is room for negotiation, proceed with it. If there is no room for negotiation, close the door to negotiation. The United States can avoid issuing a pass to China on semiconductor issues, and China can also shrink its space on issues such as the market, resource supply, and purchasing US bonds.

China has repeatedly emphasized that the door to opening up to the outside world will continue to widen. However, the United States is hindering China's opening up to the outside world. China can make some concessions on non principled and non critical issues, but cannot make any concessions on principled and critical issues. Therefore, whether China and the United States can break through the already formed ice and prevent further cooling of Sino US relations, especially Sino US trade relations, depends on whether the United States can not go too far in the semiconductor field and not want to use it to defeat China. Microsoft founder Gates has publicly stated that the US approach will only "force" China to spend time and money on manufacturing its own chips, and the US will never succeed in preventing China from having powerful chips. Buffett's former partner and Berkshire Vice Chairman Munger is very straightforward in stating that what we (the United States) should do is to establish good relations with China. We need to do a lot of free trade with China, which is our common interest. This can bring us more security and creativity. All actions that create conflicts between two countries are foolish, foolish, and foolish.

That is to say, in the American business community, there is no support for the United States to isolate, suppress, or contain China, nor do they want to restrict exports to China in areas such as high-tech. In this way, the actions of the US government cannot receive support from the business community, and China has more confidence in using semiconductors as the "ballast stone" in trade negotiations with the United States.


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