Electronics

On August 24, in the latest report of the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS), the growth rate of chip sales this year was lowered to 13.9% from the previous 16.3%, and chip sales are expected to increase by only 4.6% in 2023. The slowest growth rate since 2019. In contrast, the global semiconductor chip sales growth rate in 2021 will be as high as 26.2%.

WSTS estimates that the size of the chip market this year is US$633 billion, and most categories of chip demand are still expected to show a high year-on-year growth rate. Among them, logic chips are expected to have the strongest growth rate at 24.1%, analog chips are up 21.9% year-on-year, and sensors are up 16.6% year-on-year. Optoelectronic chips are expected to remain the slowest growing category, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 0.2%.

Indeed, global chip sales growth has slowed for six straight months, another sign of recession after the global economy was under pressure from rising interest rates and heightened geopolitical risks.

Not long ago, according to the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global semiconductor chip sales rose 13.3% year-on-year in June, down from 18% in May, marking the sixth consecutive month of slowdown. It was also the longest slowdown in growth since 2018.

Notably, the three-month moving average of chip sales has become increasingly correlated with global economic performance in recent decades. In addition, semiconductor chip makers such as Samsung are also considering scaling back their investment plans as concerns about a recession have intensified recently.

So, as households and businesses increasingly rely on digital devices and online services, chip sales data has become an important indicator of global economic activity.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already cut its global growth forecast last month, and said the global economic growth in 2023 may be lower than this year. Bloomberg's economic model projects a 100% chance of a recession in the U.S. within the next 24 months.

Therefore, as the risk of economic recession continues to intensify, WSTS expects that the growth rate of the global semiconductor market is expected to drop to 4.6% in 2023, and the market size will reach 662 billion US dollars. Among them, the market size of logic chip products is expected to reach US$200 billion in 2023, accounting for about 30% of the total market.

From a regional perspective, Japan's chip sales growth rate in 2023 may be the strongest, at 5%; followed by the Americas, at 4.8%; the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) chip sales growth rate is expected to be 4.7%. The expected growth rate of chip sales in Europe is relatively low at 3.2%, mainly because the Russian-Ukrainian war and related sanctions have dragged down the economic growth of the European continent.

It is worth mentioning that WSTS, headquartered in California, USA, is a non-profit organization that tracks global chip shipments. Its members include Texas Instruments, Samsung Electronics, Sony Semiconductor Solutions, and many other semiconductor industry giants.

In general, the slowdown in the growth rate of the world's major economies, or even a technical recession, is an important reason for the sharp decline in the demand for semiconductor chips. Earlier, the International Monetary Fund still believed that the global economy would show positive growth this year, and the slowdown in chip sales did not mean that a recession was imminent.

But this important change is enough to make the market realize that from the recent chip shortage to the current slowdown in chip sales growth, it means that the prospects for products ranging from automobiles to smartphones and computers are bleak.