Electronics

Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported that in the latest report of the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS), the expected growth rate of chip sales this year was lowered to 13.9% from 16.3% previously, and it is expected that chip sales in 2023 will only grow by 4.6%, the lowest growth rate since 2019. As a comparison, the global semiconductor chip sales will grow by 26.2% in 2021.

WSTS predicts that the scale of chip market this year will be 633 billion US dollars, and the demand for most types of chips is still expected to show a relatively high year-on-year growth. Huacheng's import and export data observation reports that the growth rate of logic chips is expected to be the strongest, 24.1%, analog chips 21.9% and sensors 16.6% year on year. Optoelectronic chips are expected to remain the category with the slowest growth rate, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 0.2%.

In fact, the growth of global chip sales has slowed down for six consecutive months, which is another sign of recession after the global economy has been under the pressure of rising interest rates and increasing geopolitical risks.

Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported that not long ago, according to the statistics of the American Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the global semiconductor chip sales in June increased by 13.3% year on year, lower than 18% in May, which has slowed down for the sixth consecutive month. This is also the longest sustained slowdown since 2018.

It is worth noting that in recent decades, the three-month moving average of chip sales has become increasingly relevant to global economic performance. In addition, Samsung and other large semiconductor chip manufacturers are also considering reducing their investment plans as the market's concern about the economic recession has intensified recently.

Therefore, as households and enterprises increasingly rely on digital equipment and online services, chip sales data has become an important indicator to measure global economic activities.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast last month and said that the global economic growth rate in 2023 may be lower than this year. Bloomberg's economic model predicts that the probability of economic recession in the United States in the next 24 months is 100%.

Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation reported that WSTS expects that the growth rate of the global semiconductor market is expected to drop to 4.6% in 2023, and the market size will reach 662 billion dollars when the risk of economic recession continues to intensify. Among them, the market size of logic chip products is expected to reach US $200 billion in 2023, accounting for about 30% of the total market.

From the regional perspective, Japan's chip sales growth rate in 2023 may be the strongest, at 5%; The second is America, 4.8%; The growth rate of chip sales in the Asia Pacific region (excluding Japan) is expected to be 4.7%. However, the growth rate of chip sales in Europe is expected to be relatively low, at 3.2%, which is mainly due to the Russian Ukrainian war and related sanctions that have dragged down the economic growth of the European continent.

It is worth mentioning that WSTS, headquartered in California, USA, is a non-profit organization that tracks the global chip shipments. Its members include Texas Instruments, Samsung Electronics, Sony Semiconductor Solutions and many other semiconductor industry giants.

In general, the slowdown in the growth of major economies in the world, or even a technical recession, is an important reason for the sharp decline in demand for semiconductor chips. Earlier, the International Monetary Fund still believed that the global economy would show positive growth this year. Slowing chip sales did not mean an imminent economic recession.

Huacheng's import and export data observation reports that this important change is enough to make the market realize that the growth rate of chip sales has slowed down from the shortage of chips not long ago to today, which means that the prospects of products from cars to smartphones and computers are worrying.