Electronics

According to the import and export data, the shipment of smartphones will decline by 6.5% to 1.27 billion units in 2022. The decline was due to record inflation, geopolitical tensions and other macroeconomic challenges, which significantly inhibited consumer demand. This forecast is 3 percentage points lower than the previous forecast. However, IDC expects that this setback will be short-term, and the market will rebound to 5.2% year-on-year growth in 2023. In the long run, the five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will be 1.4%.

However, analysts said that despite the decline in sales, the average selling price (ASP) in the second quarter increased by 10% year on year and is expected to grow by 6.3% for the whole year. Facts have proved that the high-end market (more than 800 dollars) can withstand economic turbulence. The market share has increased by 4 percentage points to 16%, and will continue to grow. It includes folding equipment, which is the fastest growing part at present. It is estimated that by 2022, it will increase by 70% year on year, and the shipment will reach 13.5 million units.

According to import and export data, from a regional perspective, the economic crisis has had a serious impact on emerging markets. Most of the shipments in emerging markets come from equipment with prices below $400, and the impact is more serious. Import and export data show that in 2022, Central and Eastern Europe is expected to decline by 17.4%, the Asia Pacific region (excluding Japan and China) is expected to grow by 3.0%, and now it is expected to decline by 4.5% in 2022. However, the most significant drop in sales is in China, which is currently expected to decline by 12.5% to about 41 million units, accounting for nearly half of this year's total sales decline. In contrast, developed markets such as North America (the United States and Canada) and Western Europe are expected to perform much better. The US market was relatively flat, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, while the Canadian market grew by 3.2%, while the Western European market only slightly declined by 0.7%.

In addition, according to the import and export data, the global 5G equipment shipment in 2022 will grow by 23.6% year on year, accounting for more than half (54%) of the global shipment, reaching 688 million units and ASP $616. According to the import and export data, in the long run, it is expected that by 2026, the sales share of 5G equipment will reach 79% and ASP will be $444. In contrast, ASP for 4G equipment will reach US $176 in 2022, and will drop to US $106 by the end of the forecast period. As a result, the entire smartphone ASP will drop from $413 in 2022 to $373 in 2026.