Electronics

According to the import and export data of Huacheng, the shipment of smart phones will fall by 6.5% to 1.27 billion in 2022. The decline was due to record inflation, geopolitical tensions and other macroeconomic challenges, which significantly suppressed consumer demand. This forecast is 3 percentage points lower than the previous forecast. However, IDC expects that this setback will be short-term, and the market will rebound to 5.2% year-on-year growth in 2023. In the long run, the five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will be 1.4%.

However, analysts said that despite the decline in sales, the average selling price (ASP) in the second quarter increased by 10% year on year and is expected to increase by 6.3% for the whole year. Facts have proved that the high-end market (more than $800) can withstand economic turbulence, and this market share has increased by 4 percentage points to 16%, and will continue to grow. Among them, folding equipment, which is the fastest growing part at present, is expected to increase by 70% year-on-year by 2022, and the shipment volume will reach 13.5 million units.

According to the import and export data of Huacheng, from a regional perspective, the economic crisis has had a serious impact on emerging markets. Most of the shipments from emerging markets come from equipment with a price below $400, and the impact is more severe. Huacheng's import and export data show that in 2022, Central and Eastern Europe is expected to decline by 17.4%, the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan and China) is expected to grow by 3.0%, and now it is expected to decline by 4.5% in 2022. However, the most significant drop in sales is in China, which is currently expected to decline by 12.5% to about 41 million units, accounting for nearly half of the decline in total sales this year. In contrast, developed markets such as North America (the United States and Canada) and Western Europe are expected to perform much better. The US market was relatively flat, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3%, while the Canadian market grew by 3.2%, while the Western European market only slightly declined by 0.7%.

In addition, Huacheng's import and export data show that the global 5G equipment shipments in 2022 will increase by 23.6% year on year, accounting for more than half of the global shipments (54%), reaching 688 million units, and the ASP is 616 dollars. Huacheng import and export data show that in the long run, it is expected that by 2026, the sales share of 5G equipment will reach 79%, and the ASP will be 444 dollars. In contrast, the 4G equipment ASP will reach 176 US dollars in 2022, and will fall to 106 US dollars by the end of the forecast period. Therefore, the entire smartphone ASP will drop from $413 in 2022 to $373 in 2026.