General

With the development of economic globalization, no country can exist independently of the world, so import and export data is an indispensable part of macro analysis. The export dependence of different industries is different. Some industries and companies with a large proportion of international trade, such as medical devices, are more sensitive to import and export.

Overview of import and export data

Because macro analysis prefers high-frequency data, the data released by the customs on a monthly basis is the most concerned in the market at present. On the Wind, it can be seen that the export amount is the same as that of the current month (M0000607) and the import amount is the same as that of the current month (M0000609). Take exports for example, we often encounter this sudden increase and sudden decrease in the month. We should pay attention to the impact of the Spring Festival or other holidays: before the Spring Festival, enterprises will "scramble for exports", resulting in a sudden increase in exports, while after the holiday, the decline is naturally caused by the holiday.

Even without considering the impact of holidays, the import and export data fluctuated greatly in other months because of the impact of many complex factors such as the international environment. The red circle in the figure below is the typical "sudden increase and sudden decrease", which is obviously affected by the Spring Festival.

In addition, the exchange rate must be taken into account. Generally, it is customary to refer to the import and export data denominated in US dollars.

What is the impact on exports

The short-term impact on exports is mainly external demand. We can roughly look at the OECD comprehensive leading indicators. The reasons for the change of external demand are more complex. Different countries have different impacts. Those that are suitable for the United States are not necessarily suitable for Europe. Japan has a problem, and Australia may be in demand. Therefore, we should not only look at macro indicators, but also qualitatively and continuously track international important current events. We should also look at the economic indicators of major countries separately (equivalent to looking at all kinds of macro data before us for N times), which will inevitably increase the difficulty of analysis.

The RMB exchange rate (M0149844) will also have an impact, but the short-term correlation is not obvious. The devaluation of the RMB will make Chinese products cheaper and more competitive, but it will also raise the import cost accordingly. If enterprises need to import raw materials, etc., it may not be cost-effective; The increase in exports brings about a trade surplus, which may also cause pressure on the appreciation of the RMB. Therefore, it is inappropriate to use the exchange rate to judge the impact of short-term imports and exports, which can be used to judge the medium-term trend. In addition, the correlation between imports and exchange rates is weaker, so it is unnecessary to judge.

What is the impact on imports

The import growth rate actually reflects the strength of domestic demand, so it is basically consistent with the nominal GDP growth rate. However, the nominal GDP growth rate found on the Wind is the current quarter value, which is lower than the import growth rate data, and is not referential.

The import value index (M0044421) published by the customs represents the growth of the import amount, and this index is equal to the import quantity index (M0044185)+the import price index (M0043949), which represents the changes in volume and price respectively.

Compared with the export price index (M0043829), the import price index is more volatile because of China's dependence on bulk resource commodities, such as crude oil.

Balance of trade (net exports)

Readers who have read my previous notes should find that the market prefers to look at growth rather than absolute value. However, the trade balance is one of the few indicators that focus on the change of absolute value, such as the current month's value of trade balance (M0000610).

The key figure is the zero axis. When it is greater than zero, it is the trade surplus. It also means that the domestic expansion rate has not been able to keep up with the manufacturing capacity of products, so most of them are exported overseas. However, in February and March every year, there will often be a sharp bottom, or even a deficit, which is still affected by the Spring Festival.

We have said before that the export amount is the same as that of the current month (M0000607) and the import amount is the same as that of the current month (M0000609). The emergence of trade surplus means that the growth rate of exports is greater than that of imports, but we should also pay attention to the "recessionary surplus", that is, both are declining, but the growth rate of exports is declining slowly. From the perspective of the balance, it seems to be a trade surplus, which seems good, but it is actually caused by recession.

Structural analysis of import and export

All the above are about total volume, but it is clear that the contribution of different products to import and export is different, which requires structural analysis. The first is to analyze the import and export of different commodities. You can search the specific data of different categories in Wind.

Secondly, the structure of different countries and regions is analyzed in the same way.

Finally, look at the mode of trade. The customs has counted 19 trade modes, the most important of which are general trade and processing trade (including processing and assembling trade with supplied materials and processing trade with imported materials). The main difference is that the former is the most common trade, which is to buy raw materials themselves and export them after they are made into products, while the latter is to provide raw materials to foreign investors and export them after processing by our processing plants, which is a kind of entrustment relationship.

Analysis and summary of import and export data

Export is the focus of the analysis, and whether the export is strong depends on the external demand. It can be seen from the comprehensive leading indicators of the OECD of the world and countries. However, the international situation is complex, and the current situation and policies of each country are different, so the structural analysis of different countries is particularly important. The exchange rate only affects the medium term and is not the focus of the analysis.

Since the focus of export analysis is on external demand, the focus of import is naturally on domestic demand, that is, the growth rate of China's nominal GDP. However, this indicator is quarterly and has no reference value. You can see the import value index published by the customs, which represents the growth of import amount, and this index can be divided into import quantity index (volume) and import price index (price).

Net export is the difference between exports minus imports. The import amount and export amount should be analyzed separately on a year-on-year basis in the current month to guard against the illusion caused by "recessionary surplus".

The above is the total analysis of import and export data, and the next is the structural analysis, that is, the analysis is carried out from two levels of different commodities, different countries and regions.