General

According to statistics, about 400 enterprises in the United States will withdraw their capital from the Chinese market in 2022, which has caused the concern of many enterprises and staff of foreign-funded enterprises. They are afraid of layoffs and termination of trade cooperation.

Turning to the modern economic history of China and the United States, in fact, the Sino-US trade entanglement has lasted for a long time. The trade war between China and the United States can be traced back to the 1990s of the last century, during which the United States carried out three so-called "301 operations" against China;

Then the time line came to 2009, when China's economy and manufacturing capacity developed rapidly and GDP grew rapidly in the six years after China's accession to the WTO, and the tire industry in particular moved the cake of American capitalists.

So American capitalists incited the United States Workers' Union to eat, take, card and ask for Chinese tires to enter the customs, and the maximum tariff was even more than 50% at that time;

In October 2011, the United States authorities formulated the so-called currency exchange rate monitoring program to suppress the exchange rate of China's currency; In 2012, the Obama administration signed the first law prohibiting foreign investment since 1998, which vetoed the investment in the wind power industry of China Sany Heavy Industry;

The time has come to Trump's reign in 2018. In January, the United States announced that it would increase tariffs on China's photovoltaic, washing machines and other products. In February, it would carry out anti-dumping tariff policies on China's steel parts industry (sewage). In April, it would start the elimination procedure for products on China's tariff list

Since then, some enterprises in China have been "stumbling" every month, which has seriously undermined the development of multilateral economic and trade.

In fact, after carefully reading the ups and downs of these trade wars, and then comparing with the current crisis, we can say that it is a small thing to see the big picture. We need not be overly anxious or confused. The reasons are as follows:

01 Sino-US trade volume is still on the rise

The reason for many people's panic is that they learned about the divestment of American enterprises in China and the relocation of relevant industrial chains.

However, according to the latest data of China Statistics, from November 2022 to January 2023, the overall trade volume between China and the United States is still rising. The data shows that:

The trade volume between China and the United States in November 2022 is about 71.7 billion US dollars. The Sino-US trade volume in December 2022 is about 73.2 billion US dollars. In 2023, Sino-US trade volume was about 74.1 billion US dollars, with an overall increase of about 3.5% on a month-on-month basis.

Some people doubt that some people believe that, from the current data, the impact on China's import and export trade volume is very small, but it does not rule out the situation of low and high in some industries.

02 China's status as a world factory has not been shaken in the short term

Although China is still slightly insufficient in the path of creation in China, in the world's manufacturing industry, Made in China still occupies the mainstream position in the world.

A country that becomes the factory of the world must first have a complete supply system, and the two most important points in this supply system are labor force and population, and a relatively complete industrial system.

In terms of labor force, China is currently the most populous country in the world. According to the statistics of world labor force on February 14, 2023

The top five countries in the world's total labor force are China (790 million), India (470 million), the United States (165 million), Indonesia (130 million) and Brazil (99 million). At present, China's total labor force accounts for more than 22% of the world's total labor force.

In terms of industrial system, although China is not as good as expected in the international science and technology market, it does have great tenacity in traditional heavy industries such as cement and steel.

China's industrial output ranked first in the first half of 2022, with an industrial added value of about 5.57 trillion US dollars, accounting for more than 25% of the world's total. The United States ranked second, with an industrial added value of about 3.89 trillion US dollars.

In Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries where politicians like the United States are lustful at present, on the one hand, as labor becomes more and more intensive, the cost of employment will gradually increase; Second, the industrial base of these countries is relatively weak, requiring a large amount of investment in the early stage.

In the short term, American capitalists will not make loss-making business, so Chinese enterprises and workers should not worry. Made in China is still highly recognized by American capital.

03 China's foreign trade channels are not limited to the United States

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, China has not forgotten the mission of building a community with a shared future for mankind. We are familiar with the Shanghai Economic Cooperation Organization, the the Belt and Road and other multilateral trade alliance organizations, which have gradually become systematic.

In the long run, strategies such as the the Belt and Road Initiative and Shanghai Cooperation Initiative can further reduce dependence on developed countries and activate the sound development of Chinese enterprises in transformation. In the long run, they will sharply increase the vitality of Chinese enterprises and increase employment opportunities in foreign markets.

To sum up, enterprises and individuals need not be at a loss. The Chinese economy and the Sino-US economy are both in the fast lane of rapid development. For the small actions of the United States, I believe that our Congress should take a positive approach. As enterprises, it is recommended to grasp core technology and multilateral trade channels, and exchange technology for market.

In the short term, China will also be the largest trading partner of the United States; For individuals, there is no need to be alarmist. Improving their own ability is the key to coping with various crises