General

China-EU trade is stable and far away! According to the preliminary data released by the European Union on February 10, the export of euro zone countries to countries outside the region will reach 2877.8 billion euros in 2022, up 18.0% year on year; Imports from countries outside the region amounted to 3192.5 billion euros, up 37.5% year on year. Affected by this, the euro zone has a record deficit of 314.7 billion euros in 2022. The transition from a surplus of 116.4 billion euros in 2021 to a huge deficit will have a considerable impact on the European economy and society, including global factors such as the COVID-19 and the Ukrainian crisis. Compared with the estimated trade data released by the United States, U.S. exports increased by 18.4% and imports increased by 14.9% in 2022. According to the exchange rate of about 1.05 between the euro and the United States dollar in December 2022, the export and import volume of the euro area in that year reached 144.9% and 102.3% of that of the United States, respectively. It is worth noting that EU trade also includes trade between the euro area and non-euro area members, as well as between euro area members. In 2022, the trade volume among the members of the euro area was 2726.4 billion euros, up 24.4% year on year, reaching 44.9% of its foreign trade volume. It can be seen that the euro area is still an important participant in the global trading system. Whether it is the supply of goods for export or the demand for imports, whether it is the total volume or the structure of goods, it is worth the attention of Chinese enterprises.

As a region with a higher degree of integration within the EU, the trade competitiveness of the euro area is relatively stronger. In 2022, the Ukrainian crisis and the subsequent implementation of trade sanctions and other measures fundamentally changed the foreign trade pattern of European countries. On the one hand, European countries are trying to find new suppliers of fossil energy to promote the continuous rise of global oil and natural gas prices; On the other hand, countries are accelerating the transition to new energy. The export and import of the European Union in 2022 increased by 17.9% and 41.3% year on year, respectively, and the gap between the two is larger than that of the euro area. In terms of commodity categories, the volume of primary products imported by the EU from countries outside the region in 2022 increased by 80.3% year-on-year, with a deficit of 647.1 billion euros. Among the primary products, the food and beverage, raw materials and energy imported by the EU increased by 26.9%, 17.1% and 113.6% respectively over the previous year. However, the EU also exported 180.1 billion euros of energy to countries outside the region in 2022, an increase of 72.3% year on year, indicating that EU countries did not intervene too much in the flow of energy trade in the face of energy challenges, and EU enterprises still seize the opportunity of rising international energy prices to gain benefits from exports. Compared with primary products, the import and export growth rate of EU industrial manufactured goods is slightly slower. In 2022, the EU exported 2063 billion euros of industrial manufactured goods, up 15.7% year on year. Among them, machinery and means of transport were the most exported, with exports of 945 billion euros, up 13.7% year on year; The export of chemicals reached 455.7 billion euros, up 20.5% year on year. In comparison, the above two categories of goods imported by the EU are slightly smaller, but the growth rate is faster, reflecting the EU's important position in the global industrial supply chain and its contribution to the global value chain cooperation in relevant fields.

The country distribution of foreign trade reflects the resource endowment, industrial stage and market supply and demand relationship of relevant countries, and also requires a stable foundation of mutual trust. With the change of the trade environment, the trade balance between the EU and its major trading partners is also continuously adjusted. In general, the import and export between the EU and its main trading partners increased in 2022, and even the import from Russia increased by 24.3% year on year. In 2022, among the EU's major trading partners, the United States (509.3 billion euros), China (230.3 billion euros), the United Kingdom (328.6 billion euros) and Switzerland (188 billion euros) will export more than 100 billion euros, of which the growth rate of exports to China is the lowest, only 3.0%. The EU's exports to Russia fell by 38.1% year-on-year. In 2022, there will be more countries with EU imports of more than 100 billion euros, which are China (626 billion euros), the United States (358.4 billion euros), the United Kingdom (218.6 billion euros), Russia (203.4 billion euros), Norway (160.7 billion euros) and Switzerland (145.2 billion euros). Among them, EU imports from China increased by 32.1% year on year, but imports from Norway, the United States, the United Kingdom and India increased even more, reaching 115.7%, 53.5%, 48.2% and 45.9% respectively.

The foreign trade of 27 EU countries in 2022 has increased over the previous year. Among them, Germany, with the largest foreign trade volume, is 1573.7 billion euros, accounting for 23.2% of the EU total. The Netherlands, Italy, Belgium and France ranked second to fifth, accounting for 13.5%, 9.2%, 8.9% and 8.6% of the EU's foreign trade volume of the year. The top five EU members accounted for more than 60% (63.4%) of the total EU foreign trade in 2022. From the perspective of trade balance, the EU country with the largest deficit in 2022 is still France, and the deficit of 190.7 billion euros in that year increased by 80.4 billion euros over the previous year. France's trade deficit reached 32.5% of its total foreign trade. Italy experienced a change from a surplus of 40.3 billion euros in 2021 to a deficit of 31 billion euros in 2022. Slovakia and Sweden also changed from a surplus to a deficit, while Slovenia changed from a deficit of 200 million euros last year to a trade balance. The trade balance of other EU countries has not changed in the direction between surplus and deficit. It is worth noting that in 2022, although Germany's foreign trade is still in surplus, it has decreased significantly, from 181.2 billion euros last year to 79.1 billion euros, a decrease of 56.3%. In the case of a general decline in the trade surplus or an increase in the deficit, the Netherlands and Ireland performed more prominently. The trade surplus of the Netherlands dropped from 69.6 billion euros in 2021 to 63.9 billion euros in 2022, a decrease of 8.2%. During the same period, Ireland's trade surplus increased from 59.3 billion euros to 64.4 billion euros. The relatively unique and advantageous industrial structure of the two countries and their low dependence on the external market supply of primary products such as energy have become the important basis and guarantee for their foreign trade performance.

As an important trading partner, Chinese enterprises and EU partners have extensive complementary interests and long-term mutual relations. After three years of epidemic and various risk shocks, China-EU trade is expected to strengthen again in 2023. However, the economic and trade cooperation relationship cannot simply rely on the demand of door-to-door, nor can it be limited to the traditional trade mode. The restructuring of the global industrial chain and supply chain, as well as the development and upgrading of technology, provide a new environment and possibility for China-EU trade to explore rule-based economic and trade cooperation. Although Europe may still face the dual pressures of economic slowdown and inflation this year, and may also be impacted by the outflow of enterprises due to the adjustment of American industrial policies, the EU, as the largest and most important regional integration organization in the world, still has an important attraction that cannot be ignored. Relying on communication to reduce misunderstandings, avoid miscalculations, and form a stable cooperative relationship is conducive to the acceleration of post-epidemic recovery between China and the EU, while stable China-EU trade will also provide important support for the economic development of other major regions.