General

According to customs data, China's total import and export volume will reach 42 trillion yuan in 2022, up 7.7% year on year. Customs data showed that the export volume reached 23.9 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 10% year on year. Under the impact of the epidemic spread in many places last year, it was very difficult for foreign trade exports to achieve such achievements.

However, the growth of foreign trade exports began to slow down from the second half of last year, even declined, and foreign trade orders began to decrease. According to customs data, in US dollars, China's foreign trade exports declined from October to December 2022, especially to the United States, and exports to Europe also declined.

By 2023, the situation of foreign trade exports has not improved completely. According to the data released by the Japan Maritime Center (JMC), China's export boxes to the United States fell by 25% in January this year. Is this the "transfer" of orders or the lack of money in the United States?

First of all, let's look at a group of data: not only the number of containers exported by China to the United States fell, but also the number of containers exported by more than 10 Asian economies to the United States fell by more than 20%, the number of containers exported by Japan and South Korea to the United States fell collectively, and the number of containers exported by ASEAN countries to the United States fell by 11.8%, among which the number of containers exported by Vietnam to the United States fell by 12.5%.

It can be found that the number of containers shipped to the United States by Asian production-oriented countries is falling, and China's exports are falling, and Vietnam is no exception. According to customs data, Vietnam's exports to the United States fell by 30% in the fourth quarter of 2022, exports to Europe dropped by 60%, and Vietnam's exports fell by 21% in January 2023.

Therefore, global trade began to shrink gradually from the fourth quarter of 2022. To be more precise, imports from Europe and the United States were reduced, and consumption could no longer be as rampant as in the past two years. The export orders of Asian countries were significantly reduced.

The fundamental reason is that the side effects of printing money are beginning to appear. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the United States printed money in order to stimulate economic growth in 2020, and directly issued money subsidies to residents and enterprises. With money in hand, most Americans will still spend it. The United States issued money until 2021, so the import orders of the United States soared in those two years, and the exports of Asian countries soared.

However, due to too much water, inflation in Europe and the United States has become more serious, and prices have risen rapidly. On the other hand, the government has no longer directly issued money and subsidies, so the enthusiasm of American consumption has been greatly reduced. In addition, prices have risen too fast, and consumption has been further suppressed, which has led to a substantial reduction in export orders in Asia.

According to customs data, the import volume of the United States in 2022 reached 3.96 trillion US dollars, up 16.3% year on year, but the import growth in December was only 1.3%. It is clear that US imports began to slow down in the second half of last year, and dropped to below 2% at the end of the year. The demand for imported goods declined.

Therefore, the decline in order demand from the United States is an objective fact. In addition to this factor, the "transfer" of foreign trade orders is also another major reason for the decline in China's export orders.

There are two main reasons for the "transfer" of foreign trade orders: on the one hand, the labor and land costs in Southeast Asia are lower, which is more suitable for labor-intensive industries. International industrial transfer is never based on human will. Recall that the low-end manufacturing industry in the United States is transferred to Japan, Japan is transferred to the four Asian dragons, and then transferred from the four Asian dragons to China.

At present, China's costs are rising in all aspects. The transfer of labor-intensive industries to lower-cost Southeast Asia conforms to the economic law and the trend of industrial transfer. This is the trend of the future, and no one can stop it.

On the other hand, the United States is sparing no effort to promote economic decoupling, trying to reduce its dependence on China's supply chain, and intends to establish an independent global supply chain. Therefore, the import volume of the United States from the European Union rose sharply last year. Some low-end manufactured goods are more likely to be imported from Southeast Asia, such as clothing, shoes and hats, toys, etc.

One is the objective economic scale, and the other is that the world's largest economy intends to promote the restructuring of the global industrial chain, resulting in the "transfer" of some orders for China's foreign trade exports, coupled with the sharp drop in international market demand, so the situation is not optimistic.

In the future, only by vigorously promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, impacting high-end manufacturing industry and achieving more breakthroughs in high-tech fields can this situation be changed. In addition, we should make great efforts to improve the income level of residents and drive the growth of domestic demand, which is the important driving force of economic growth.