General

The latest import and export data, January and February trade data interpretation:

According to the import and export data, the total import and export volume in US dollars was 895.72 billion US dollars, down 8.3%, of which the export volume was 506.3 billion US dollars, down 6.8%; Imports were US $389.42 billion, down 10.2%; The trade surplus was US $116.88 billion, an increase of 6.8%.

This is basically in line with expectations. Since the fourth quarter of last year, exports have started to rise and decline. The reason is very simple. The United States and the West have been raising interest rates. Raising interest rates means reducing liquidity, less natural money, less trade, and lower demand. There is an analysis of what I wrote a year ago. Although the surplus has expanded, it is because of the normal surplus at the beginning of last year, but in fact, it is the same as in the second quarter of last year, In the third quarter, compared with the third quarter, the year-on-year decline was gradual. According to the import and export data, the highest monthly surplus in 2022 occurred from May to October, among which

May surplus of US $78.8 billion

June surplus of US $98 billion

July surplus of US $102.1 billion

August surplus of 79.4 billion US dollars

September surplus of US $84.7 billion

October surplus of US $85.1 billion

The reason is also very simple. Last year, Russia and Ukraine started war+Western inflation+China's industrial upgrading. Japan, South Korea and Europe, these traditional manufacturing powers, have a deficit. Naturally, there is a surplus. It is our surplus. Import and export data show that China's surplus last year was nearly 880 billion dollars, while in 2021 it was only 670 billion dollars. That is, as I said, China and the United States did harvest last year. China is the industrial giant hammer to harvest Japan, South Korea and Europe, The United States is reaping Japan, South Korea and Europe with the financial sickle. This year, the situation in January and February remains the same, because Japan, South Korea and Europe are still in recession, especially Japan and South Korea. Now the price of bulk resources has already dropped. You can't say that they have caused the deficit because of the import of resources, and not only the deficit, but also the deficit between Japan and South Korea is expanding! For almost 11 consecutive months in South Korea and nearly two consecutive years in Japan, the Russian market was ceded to China by Japan, South Korea and Europe.

So, although our surplus in the first two months narrowed on a month-on-month basis, it still expanded compared with January and February under normal international trade last year, which is very illustrative, because there was no Russian-Uzbekistan war in January and February last year. According to the import and export data, the most eye-catching export in these two months is still the automobile, which has increased by 79% year on year! It is basically certain that the export of automobiles this year will inevitably surpass that of Japan, with 3.1 million cars exported last year ranking second in the world and 3.5 million cars exported first in Japan. It should not be a problem to export more than 4 million cars this year, and not only the export of electric vehicles but also the export of gasoline vehicles. This is the result of industrial upgrading, China's auto exports will certainly squeeze the share of other major export countries.

In addition, the surplus with ASEAN has increased by 90%. This shows that although the surplus with the United States has narrowed, it still continues to export to the United States after the ASEAN floods. The United States trade war is just a fake to meet the anti-China voters of the United States. In addition, China itself is the upstream of the ASEAN manufacturing assembly countries, and a large number of heavy and chemical intermediate products, such as photovoltaic modules, textile semi-finished products, electronic components, electromechanical products Machinery and other products are exported to ASEAN in large quantities. They are simply assembled in ASEAN, and then manufactured in ASEAN and exported to the United States.

In a word, it is obvious that the advantageous industries of Japan and South Korea are being eaten up by China at an accelerated pace, and the characteristics of China's industry is to become a household. What can be rolled out in the Chinese market can not be stopped in the world, because the cost performance ratio is too high. At that time, Europe and the United States wanted to use photovoltaic wind power new energy, climate agreement carbon emissions, which stifled China's industrial upgrading and raised the threshold of our industrial upgrading, but were all killed by China, No matter how many antidumping and tariff increases you made in the West in that year, we were finally killed. The United States also had to open a green channel for PV modules to several ASEAN countries last year, but we all know that that is the green light for Chinese enterprises. The principle is very simple. If you don't use Chinese products, your power generation costs and investment costs are higher than mine. As a result, the overall cost of building a low-carbon society is much higher than mine, How do you compete with me? My own market is big. I'm afraid you will strangle my industry?