General

Despite the repeated COVID-19, weak global economic recovery and intensified geopolitical conflicts, the import and export trade between China and the EU still achieved a counter trend growth. In the first eight months of 2022, the EU was China's second largest trading partner. The total value of trade between China and the EU was 3.75 trillion yuan, up 9.5% year-on-year, accounting for 13.7% of China's total foreign trade. According to the data from Eurostat, in the first half of the year, the trade volume of the 27 EU countries with China was 413.9 billion euros, up 28.3% year on year. Among them, EU exports to China amounted to 112.2 billion euros, down 0.4%; Imports from China amounted to 301.7 billion euros, up 43.3%.

In the view of the interviewed experts, this set of data confirms that China-EU trade has a strong complementarity and potential. No matter how the international situation changes, the economic and trade interests of both sides are still closely linked. China and the EU should enhance mutual trust and communication at all levels to further inject "stabilizers" into bilateral and even global supply chain security.

Bilateral trade is expected to maintain growth throughout the year

Since this year, the economic and trade cooperation between China and the EU has shown strong resilience and vitality. "The EU's dependence on China's imports increased in the first half of the year." Cai Tongjuan, a researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Finance and Deputy Director of the Macro Research Department of Renmin University of China, analyzed in an interview with the International Business Daily reporter that the main reason was that the EU's manufacturing operation rate declined under the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions against Russia, and became more dependent on imports. China has withstood the test of the epidemic, and the domestic industrial chain supply chain is relatively complete and functioning normally. In addition, the China-EU train has also made up for the gap in shipping and air transportation that is vulnerable to the epidemic, ensured the uninterrupted transportation between China and the EU, and made a great contribution to the trade cooperation between China and the EU.

At the micro level, European enterprises such as BMW, Audi and Airbus continue to expand their business in China this year. A survey of European enterprises' development plans in China showed that 19% of European enterprises in China said they had expanded their existing production business scale, and 65% said they had maintained their production business scale. The industry believes that this reflects the firm confidence of European enterprises in China's investment, the resilience of China's economic development and the strong attraction of the domestic market for European multinationals.

It is worth noting that the recent interest rate increase process of the European Central Bank and the downward pressure of the euro may have a multifaceted impact on the import and export of China and Europe. "The impact of the devaluation of the euro on China-EU trade has been apparent in July and August, and the growth rate of China-EU trade in these two months has slowed down compared with the first half of the year." Cai Tongjuan predicted that if the euro continues to depreciate, it will make "Made in China" relatively expensive, and have an impact on the order volume of China's exports to the EU in the fourth quarter; At the same time, the devaluation of the euro will make "Made in Europe" relatively cheap, which is conducive to increasing China's imports from the EU, reducing the EU's trade deficit with China, and promoting a more balanced trade between China and the EU.

"From the perspective of the whole year, despite the sluggish economic growth in Europe and the depreciation of the euro, the basic situation of mutual demand between China and the EU is stable. In the fourth quarter of the heating season, the EU's demand for China's relevant equipment and products will also increase, so the China-EU trade will continue to grow throughout the year." Cai Tongjuan concluded.

The "double chain" cooperation should be further strengthened

Looking forward to the future, strengthening economic and trade cooperation between China and the EU is still the general trend.

Under the background of economic globalization, China, as the world's largest manufacturing country and exporter, has formed a close industrial chain supply chain relationship with Europe. However, the industry calls for more attention to the impact of COVID-19, geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather and other events on the supply chain of China and Europe.

At the recently held "China's economy and the new future of China-EU cooperation" international forum, the experts at the meeting stressed that the current China-EU economic and trade cooperation faces some challenges, but the enterprises of both sides are still looking for ways to deal with potential risks, and the basic framework of China-EU economic and trade cooperation is still stable. China and the EU should enhance mutual trust and communication at all levels to further inject "stabilizers" into bilateral and even global supply chain security.

The experts at the meeting suggested that in terms of maritime transport channels, both sides could strengthen information sharing and participate in the formulation of market rules and industry norms, promote the digital capacity building of the operation system, strengthen the construction of the port collection and distribution system, etc., in order to adjust and plan the maritime transport capacity; In terms of air passage, we should guide the layout of China-EU air routes to meet the needs of the manufacturing industry, and jointly build the full-link service capacity of the air passage between China and Europe; In terms of railway channels, we will further stabilize the international industrial chain supply chain system by establishing an intergovernmental cooperation mechanism, building a green and safe information resource sharing mechanism for the upstream and downstream of the train, and supporting the relevant enterprises of the China-EU train to strengthen the docking, so as to realize the deep integration of the China-EU train and the industries of the countries along the line.

Cai Tongjuan said that in China-EU industrial chain supply chain cooperation, technology trade has become the most dynamic part. In recent years, China's imports of telecommunications, computer and information services, and intellectual property use and other technical services from the EU have increased rapidly. The potential of China-EU economic and trade cooperation is mainly concentrated in the field of trade in services. The resumption and signing of the China-EU Investment Agreement should be facilitated as soon as possible, which will help China and the EU to mutually invest in new energy, electric vehicles, cloud services, financial services and health care, and drive the further growth of bilateral trade.