General

Import and export data show that China's foreign trade is still under pressure. In the first two months, China's total import and export value was lower than that of the same period last year, and its trade volume with several major trading partners also declined. Analysts here believe that China is expected to take a series of measures to crack the pressure of foreign trade in the future.

Import and export data showed that China's total import and export value in the first two months was 6.18 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.8% year on year, and a significant gap with the year-on-year growth rate of 13.3% in the same period last year. Import and export data showed that exports increased by 0.9% year-on-year and imports decreased by 2.9%. In US dollars, China's total import and export value fell by 8.3% year-on-year in the first two months.

Among the major trading partners, the import and export volume between China and the EU, the United States, Japan and other major trading partners has declined, in addition to the continued growth of trade with ASEAN. Import and export data show that Sino-US trade volume decreased by 10.6% year-on-year.

The contraction of import and export volume in the first two months is due to the high base in the same period last year, but it also reflects that China's foreign trade is facing a lot of challenges.

Influenced by the continuous fermentation of the Ukrainian crisis, the rise of unilateralism and protectionism and other factors, this year's world economic and trade prospects are gloomy and the risk of recession is rising. According to the forecast of the World Trade Organization, the volume of global trade in goods is expected to increase by only 1% in 2023, about 2.5 percentage points slower than that in 2022.

Trade largely depends on the temperature of the international market, and the weakening of foreign demand will inevitably impact China's foreign trade. As Wang Wentao, Minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said, the pressure on foreign trade this year is "significantly increased". Many enterprises report that the orders on hand are decreasing, the orders are delayed, the large orders become smaller, and the long orders become shorter.

The work report of the Chinese government in 2023 has made it clear that import and export should continue to play a supportive role in the economy. Analysts believe that according to the recent official information, China's foreign trade stability is expected to develop from three aspects in the future.

First, cultivate new "competitive products". The epidemic prevention materials and "housing economy" related products that supported China's export surge during the epidemic period have gradually returned to the normal export performance, and China needs to find new trade growth points.

According to the official data, the highlight of China's recent exports lies in the "new three types" of automobiles, lithium batteries and photovoltaic products. In the first two months, China's automobile exports grew by 78.9% year-on-year. It is expected that in the future, China will take more practical and effective measures to optimize the product structure and cultivate new growth points of trade.

Second, we should deepen our efforts in emerging markets. At a time of rising global economic and trade uncertainty, the trade volume between China and ASEAN has maintained a high growth rate of nearly 10% in the first two months, which is quite rare among China's major trading partners. It shows the strong complementarity and great potential of the two sides' trade.

With the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) for more ASEAN countries, the negotiation of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Version 3.0 has accelerated, and the trade volume between China and ASEAN has reached a new high.

Countries along the "the Belt and Road" will also become the focus of China's market expansion. Chen Chunjiang, assistant minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said recently that while continuing to expand the trade scale of countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road", he will optimize the trade structure, expand the import of high-quality goods, and accelerate the construction of a free trade zone network covering the "the Belt and Road".

Li Zhan, chief economist of China Merchants Fund Research Department, said that ASEAN countries and countries along the "the Belt and Road" have great market potential, and deep cultivation of these markets will help stabilize China's basic foreign trade market.

Third, accelerate the development of new trade formats and new models. During the epidemic, cross-border e-commerce and digital trade played a significant role in China's foreign trade "breakthrough" and will continue to play an important role in the future.

Wang Wentao said that in the future, it will coordinate and promote the rapid and healthy development of cross-border e-commerce, overseas warehouse, bonded maintenance and other new business forms and models. In addition, it will also comply with the trend of industry transfer to the central and western regions and the northeast regions, improve the quality of trade in the eastern region, and increase the proportion of trade in the central and western regions and the northeast regions.

Li Zhan said that in view of the favorable conditions such as the continued efforts of the official foreign trade stabilization and the optimistic attitude of the market towards China's economic prospects this year, China's foreign trade is expected to show a "low before high" development trend this year. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.