General

According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, the data released by the financial affairs department of the Taiwan authorities recently showed that Taiwan's export volume in February was 31.05 billion US dollars, a new low in 24 months, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%.

From the perspective of major export goods, the export performance in February was generally weak. From the perspective of export regions, Taiwan's exports to the mainland (including Hong Kong), the United States, Europe, ASEAN and other major markets are declining.

The person in charge of financial affairs of the Taiwan authorities said that Taiwan's export situation was still in a "chilly spring". It was estimated that the export volume in March was between 35 billion and 36.5 billion US dollars, down 16% to 19.5% year on year. The year-on-year decline of Taiwan's exports in the first quarter is expected to be between 18% and 19.5%, according to Huacheng's import and export data observation report.

Exports account for more than 60% of Taiwan's total economy, and weak exports directly put pressure on economic growth. This "chill" has blown into the international tool machine exhibition being held in Taipei. The exhibitors generally said that the atmosphere of the exhibition venue was slightly warmer, but there was still a significant gap compared with the situation before the epidemic.

According to the data released by the Taiwan Tool Machine and Component Industry Association on the 8th, Taiwan's tool machine export in February was 168 million US dollars, down 29.2% month-on-month and 26.9% year-on-year.

It can be noted that Taiwan's export of tool machines to the mainland (including Hong Kong) increased by 22.7% month-on-month to US $47.29 million in February, and the mainland has become the largest export market of Taiwan's tool machines again. Huacheng's import and export data observation report.

Zhu Zhiyang, president of Taiwan Youjia Group, a machine tool manufacturer, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that Taiwan's economy is highly dependent on the mainland market, and the warming effect of the mainland's economic recovery on Taiwan's industry is expected to gradually become apparent in the second and third quarters of this year. Huacheng's import and export data observation report.

Jian Jinhan, a researcher at the Institute of Economics of the "Chinese Academy of Sciences" in Taiwan, believes that the recovery of the mainland economy has driven Taiwan's purchasing managers' index (PMI) back to the expansion range, and the export dividend for Taiwan is expected to gradually emerge.

In addition to weak exports, the continued high inflation has also become a major hidden danger for Taiwan's economy this year. Analysts in the island worry that "high prices and low growth" may become a long-term phenomenon. If the inflation momentum in the field of people's livelihood continues, it will lead to a chain effect, reduce people's consumption momentum, and affect economic growth. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

Since this year, the major think tanks in the island have generally tended to be conservative in their views on Taiwan's economic prosperity this year, and most think it will be a year of "cold outside and cold inside" and "sensible inflation".