General

The General Administration of Customs recently released the import and export data of China's foreign trade in the first two months of this year. The slowdown of China's export growth has become the focus of attention. In this regard, some experts said recently that weak external demand, high base and disturbance of Spring Festival factors were the main reasons for the decline of exports in the first two months of this year.

According to the observation of Huacheng's import and export data, China's total import and export value in the first two months of this year was 6.18 trillion yuan, down 0.8% year on year (the same below). Among them, exports reached 3.5 trillion yuan, up 0.9%; Import was 2.68 trillion yuan, down 2.9%; The trade surplus was 810.32 billion yuan, an increase of 16.2%. According to import and export data, China's total import and export value in the first two months of this year was 895.72 billion US dollars, down 8.3%. Among them, exports reached 506.3 billion US dollars, down 6.8%; Imports were US $389.42 billion, down 10.2%; The trade surplus was US $116.88 billion, an increase of 6.8%.

Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, believes that global trade is interconnected, and China's export growth rate in the first two months fell by 6.8% in dollar terms, basically in line with expectations. The Reuters Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) for the first two months was 11.9% and 2.64% year on year, far lower than the same period in 2022. Although the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) have rebounded recently, they are both below the boom and bust line for four consecutive months, indicating that the US macroeconomic demand is weak. During the same period, the export value of South Korea was - 16.6% and - 7.50% year on year, which was at the historical low range. From the perspective of historical trend, China's export growth is highly correlated with South Korea's export growth.

Wang Jing, the research institute of the Bank of China, said that although there were signs of recovery in international demand in the first two months, it was still not stable. In February, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.9%, which was slightly higher than that in December 2022, but still in the contraction range. Although the consumer confidence index of the United States, the European Union and Japan has improved on a month-on-month basis, it is still at a historical low level. In February, South Korean exports fell by 7.5% year-on-year, which also confirmed that international demand was still weak. In addition, the higher base in the same period of the previous year and the greater seasonal impact of the Spring Festival holiday are also important reasons for the decline of China's exports in the first two months. According to the observation of Huacheng's import and export data, from January to February 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of China's exports was 15% in dollar terms. This year, China's COVID-19 infection prevention and control policies were changed, the related epidemic situation was stable, and the employees of enterprises had a strong desire to return home for the Spring Festival. This also makes many domestic foreign trade enterprises, especially labor-intensive enterprises, have a long period of resuming work and production after the holiday, which has a certain impact on the export supply of products.

Looking forward to the future, Zheng Houcheng believes that in the context of the continued high interest rate in the United States and even the continued interest rate increase by the European Central Bank of the United States, the JPMorgan Chase Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is difficult to rise significantly in March, while in the context of the negative range of the international oil price for two consecutive months on a year-on-year basis, it is expected that the CRB index will continue to decline and enter the negative range. This means that China's export growth is still under pressure from both volume and price, and the rate will probably continue to decline from the previous two months.

In Wang Jing's view, China's export growth may continue to be under pressure in the short term and is expected to improve gradually in the second half of the year. She said that although the inflation level of developed economies in Europe and the United States has declined, it is still in a high range. In the first half of 2023, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will probably raise interest rates in a "small step". This has a restraining effect on international demand, putting pressure on China's export growth. However, it should also be noted that the pace of interest rate increase in European and American economies tends to slow down, and the market generally expects that its interest rate increase cycle will end in the second half of the year, and its destocking cycle will gradually come to an end, consumer confidence will gradually improve, and international demand is expected to recover in the second half of the year.

"In addition, the ASEAN economy needs to continue to strengthen, and cooperation between China and ASEAN countries is still greater than competition in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, which supports the export of China's end consumer goods and intermediate goods. According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report, the index of new export orders in February hit a new high in nearly 10 years, rising sharply from 46.1% in January to 52.4%, which is the first time that the index has returned to the expansion range since April 2021. The index of new export orders and export amount There is a time difference of 3 to 6 months between the growth rates, indicating that exports may be expected to improve gradually in the future. " Wang Jing said.