General

Since 2023, the epidemic situation has improved rapidly, but what is surprising is that there have been reports of a "precipitous" decline in foreign trade orders. According to foreign trade data, foreign trade orders have decreased by about 40%. At major ports such as Shanghai Port, Guangzhou Port, Ningbo Port, and Shenzhen Yantian Port, empty containers are piled up in a mountain, and traditional export manufacturing bases such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are experiencing a rapid contraction in labor demand and a decline in hourly wages, "Enterprises have gone from being difficult to recruit in previous years to being overcrowded, and some even shouted at the recruitment scene, 'Those who were 86 years ago can leave now.'".

The situation in the foreign trade industry is indeed not optimistic, but what exactly does the official real data look like? On March 7th, foreign trade data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first two months of 2023, the total import and export value of China's goods trade slightly decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, reaching 6.18 trillion yuan, of which exports increased by 0.9%, reaching 3.5 trillion yuan, and the scale reached a record high over the same period; According to foreign trade data, imports fell 2.9% to 2.68 trillion yuan, and the trade surplus expanded 16.2% to 810.32 billion yuan.

From the foreign trade data released by the General Administration of Customs, it can be seen that the overall foreign trade situation is relatively resilient, with exports achieving positive growth and a stable start overall, continuing to play a supportive role in the economy. Foreign trade data also reflect that ASEAN's import and export scale reached 951.93 billion yuan, making it China's largest trading partner, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, accounting for 15.4% of China's total foreign trade value.

The overall resilience of the foreign trade situation is strong, but what really needs attention is the transfer of some foreign enterprises' industrial chains to Southeast Asia, which is indeed a market law of economic development. After all, the labor costs of Southeast Asia and India are far lower than those of China. As the infrastructure of these countries continues to improve, it is bound to attract the transfer of labor intensive industries.

In addition, it is reported that Foxconn plans to invest $700 million to build a new factory in India. Analysts predict that Apple's iPhone assembly share in India may increase from less than 5% currently to 10-15%. The apple industry chain is crucial to the development of China's science and technology industry, and the transfer of the apple industry chain needs to be given sufficient attention.

In 2023, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to worsen, the world economy will face a greater test. As the largest source of China's trade surplus, the U.S. market is crucial to China's foreign trade industry. Every year, China's trade surplus with the United States will be as high as $300 billion to $400 billion. If the Sino US relations continue to deteriorate, the impact on China's foreign trade industry will gradually emerge, and the test of the foreign trade industry will become more and more serious. Of course, we also aim to develop the domestic demand market and expand domestic demand, but the position of the foreign trade industry cannot be replaced. Looking at the example of absolute internal circulation in North Korea, we can see the importance of the foreign trade industry