General

According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months of 2022, China's total import and export value was 38.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% over the same period last year. Among them, exports reached 21.84 trillion yuan, up 11.9%; Import reached 16.5 trillion yuan, up 4.6%; The trade surplus was 5.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 42.8%.

What about the trend of foreign trade in 2023?

Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, said that China's export supply advantage may still emerge next year. Geopolitical conflicts are still continuing, and the game of major powers has entered the fields of energy and technology, resulting in the fragmentation of global industrial chains, increased trade barriers, and rising operating costs, which will have an impact on overseas supply capabilities. Repeated outbreaks and high inflation have exacerbated the gap between rich and poor in the United States, and a spiral upward pattern of "price wage" has basically taken shape. The combination of cost driven inflation and foreign trade recession expectations has affected the supply capacity and willingness of European companies to expand production. This year, Germany experienced its first trade deficit in nearly three decades and the US refining and chemical industry's capacity contraction is an example. Overseas supply is unstable, and China's supply chain resilience advantage will become more prominent. The domestic industrial chain has withstood the impact of the epidemic from April to May. We have accumulated some experience in promoting safe production and breaking through logistics bottlenecks. In addition to the continuous optimization of current epidemic prevention policies, the impact of epidemic factors on export supply will gradually weaken in the future.

Bai Ming, Deputy Director of the International Market Research Institute of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that against the backdrop of overall shrinking external demand, the competition for "dividing the cake" in the international market will become increasingly fierce next year. "China must seize the time and intensify efforts to stabilize its foreign trade, in order to gain an opportunity and avoid a significant decline in the growth rate of foreign trade.". Action has already begun. After major foreign trade provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong organized groups of foreign trade enterprises to "grab orders" in Europe, Japan, and other places, many local and industry associations in China have taken action to provide convenience for enterprises to participate and conduct business negotiations abroad. Some fast moving companies have already tasted the sweetness. For example, during the International Sporting Goods Exhibition in Munich, Germany, more than 50 enterprises participating in the exhibition signed orders with an amount of about 18 million euros, and the intended order amount was about 35 million euros.

Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank: After entering 2023, the epidemic prevention and control will be further optimized. The central government will focus on "promoting the overall improvement of the operation of the foreign trade economy" and "boosting market confidence". It is expected that the performance of the foreign trade economy will show a relatively significant improvement. From an external perspective, the biggest challenge facing 2023 is the slowdown in export growth. As developed economies continue to raise interest rates significantly, the global foreign trade economy is significantly cooling, and the pressure on exports will be greater than in 2022. The slowdown in export growth will drag down some manufacturing investment and increase employment pressure to some extent. Internally, China's economy is expected to rebound overall. The relaxation of epidemic prevention and control will be beneficial to economic recovery; The second is that the stock policy and the incremental policy will be superimposed; The third is the cardinal effect. In 2022, the economic growth rate was lower than expected, objectively resulting in a relatively low economic base. As long as the economy resumes normal growth, the base effect will form support for the 2023 economic data.

Zheng Houcheng, Director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, said that in 2023, the pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation was greater than the pressure of depreciation. This judgment is based on the following four points. First, from the perspective of macroeconomic fundamentals in China and the United States, in 2023, China was in the transition stage from active destocking to passive inventory replenishment, while the United States was in the active destocking stage, with China's macroeconomic fundamentals leading the United States. Secondly, from the perspective of monetary policy trends, against the backdrop of the US ISM manufacturing PMI continuing to be below the boom and bust line, and the upside down of US long and short term interest rate differentials, there is a high probability that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the 3-4 quarters of 2023, resulting in a high probability that the US US US US interest rate differentials will narrow, favoring the RMB exchange rate. Thirdly, from the perspective of the trend of the US dollar index, the US dollar index is at the top of the cycle. With the US macroeconomic pressure and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, the downward trend of the US dollar index is a high probability event. Fourth, from the perspective of the cycle of the RMB exchange rate itself, the current RMB exchange rate is at the bottom of the third cycle since the "811 exchange rate reform", and late appreciation is a high probability event.

What do you think is the trend of the foreign trade economy in 2023?