General

Currently, the world economy is facing a recession, trade protectionism is rising, and the negative impact of the epidemic on trade will continue. The pressure on the development of international trade is increasing. Despite the numerous challenges faced, many experts are still optimistic about the advantages and resilience of China's foreign trade development.

Li Zhan, Chief Economist of China Merchants Fund Research Department, analyzed the important growth points of China's foreign trade in the future from both regional and product perspectives.

From a regional perspective, Europe and the United States have a limited increase in international trade imports from China, but the stock is still high. The market of countries along the "the Belt and Road" and RCEP member countries has great trade potential, which will continue to help stabilize China's international trade base. Among them, China has close trade relations with ASEAN, and China's industrial chain is at the upstream of some ASEAN industries. ASEAN's export growth will also drive China's export growth to a certain extent.

From a product perspective, China's production advantages in the fields of chemical engineering and automotive components will be continuously released. The industrial chain of China's chemical industry is well equipped to achieve full coverage from the lowest end of urea and methanol to the highest end of new energy and new materials. Driven by sustainable development, green chemical products will usher in a broader development space. At the same time, China is one of the world's largest producers of automotive components. With the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the global demand for automotive components will further increase, and the export of products related to China's new energy vehicle industry chain will maintain a high growth rate.

"High level opening-up is expected to further unleash China's trade potential." Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, believes that to expand new space for foreign trade development, it is necessary to focus on playing the role of Hong Kong as a "super contact" connecting the mainland and the international community. The trade links between the mainland and Hong Kong are close and complement each other's advantages. From the perspective of both regions, tapping the potential of the mainland's foreign trade can stimulate trade vitality through institutional reform, promote strong chain complementation, accelerate the integration of industrial chains and supply chains, further deepen the high-level opening up of finance to the outside world, and improve the quality and efficiency of financial services trade. It is necessary to fully unleash the comparative advantages of the digital economy between the two regions, accelerate the development of new forms of foreign trade, and create a cutting-edge highland for China's opening up.

Among them, Hong Kong can use the Greater Bay Area of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao as a platform for inward integration, giving full play to the advantages of industrial synergy and complementarity in the Greater Bay Area, the development advantages of technological innovation highlands, and the comparative advantages of the digital economy, and giving full play to its role as a pilot field for reform and opening up. The mainland can use Hong Kong as a bridge for further external expansion, giving full play to Hong Kong's role as a "super contact", improving the quality of China's trade development, and further releasing China's influence over surrounding regions.

The recently released special report of the China Macroeconomic Forum puts forward five suggestions on the breakthrough path of China's international trade development.

First, make full use of the RCEP policy dividend. It is recommended that the government improve RCEP trade facilitation measures, upgrade regulatory operating systems, standardize and simplify procedures, continuously optimize customs clearance processes, improve service efficiency, and serve enterprises to seize opportunities for RCEP, making full use of various policies. The second is to tap the potential of low-carbon environmental protection high-tech industries. China already has advantages in R&D and commercial applications in emerging fields such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and the digital economy. In the future, it is necessary to further tap the trade potential of these industries. Third, attach importance to the driving role of new business forms and models. Governments and enterprises should continue to use new technologies and tools to enable the development of foreign trade. It is necessary to improve the support policies for the development of cross-border e-commerce, cultivate a group of excellent overseas warehouse enterprises, optimize the policy framework for market procurement trade, and promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional foreign trade. Fourth, improve the business environment to welcome industrial transfer. We should seize the opportunity of the fifth global industrial transfer, further enhance the transparency and predictability of policies, improve the business environment, and be prepared to undertake industrial transfer, thereby promoting the release of domestic demand for intermediate goods, the upgrading of related industries, and the re matching of production capacity. Fifth, continuously improve technological strength and stabilize the value chain supply chain. We should make full use of China's super large-scale market advantage, drive product innovation through application, and create China's product standards and product system.

Yu Miaojie, president of Liaoning University, believes that more efforts should be made to promote the development of foreign trade. He suggested shifting the perspective of expanding export markets to emerging industrial countries and diversifying international trade export markets. The government can provide better policy guidance and provide more service platforms; Enterprises should make early layout and frequent research, get rid of path dependence, and achieve differentiated exports. We must resolutely expand imports, continue to reduce tariffs, eliminate non-tariff barriers, and reduce trade costs; Enterprises should seize the opportunity to import core components and high-end intermediate products from Japan and South Korea, and combine them with domestic intermediate products to form a 1+1>2 effect. We should promote the development of service trade, such as using tourism to drive export growth. We should focus on carrying out in-depth cooperation with countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" and actively promote the construction of the China Japan South Korea Free Trade Zone.