General

Foreign trade orders have declined. Is the cold winter of foreign trade really coming? Since March, the weather in this early spring has become increasingly uncomfortable, with sudden heat and cold, ups and downs, causing some concern for people looking forward to warm spring.

At this time, the foreign trade industry is quietly entering an early spring situation. It should be said that 2022 is the most prosperous and brilliant year for the foreign trade industry. Regardless of whether it is export or import, regardless of which industry or field, it is full of excitement and excitement, year-end inventory, and profits.

However, some subtle changes have also been quietly mixed in the booming situation, such as the continuous decline in prices, such as the withdrawal of some well-known foreign enterprises from China and their shift to Southeast Asia; For example, the monthly import and export scale peaked in October last year, and then fell month by month, extending to the first quarter of this year. Foreign trade orders may continue to decline.

According to the published data from January to February, the national situation is relatively stable, with imports and exports slightly decreasing and exports slightly increasing. This is also the first decline since 2021. Locally, foreign trade orders from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and other places in the eastern coastal region have shown a downward trend. In the past, these regions have been driven by strong growth in domestic and foreign trade.

There are several unfavorable factors that deserve serious attention.

First, the price of raw materials has been falling all the way. It is said that the price of raw materials is a barometer and a test stone of foreign trade. The price of bulk raw materials has been falling steadily from last year's peak period, and some prices have even dropped to around 10% - 20% of the peak period.

Second, there are more and more customers' behaviors of pressing prices. Many companies and enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta, especially small, medium-sized, and micro foreign trade companies, have reported that since the end of last year, customer price depression has become increasingly common, with a decline of 5% to 10%, and even a high of 20% to 30%. Some customers even explicitly stated that they would transfer foreign trade orders without reducing prices.

The third is the impact of the de Chinese nature of the US supply chain. Many enterprises have received the latest demands from customers, requiring them to invest and open factories in Southeast Asia and continue to cooperate in the future, otherwise it is difficult to ensure subsequent foreign trade orders.

Investment, consumption, and exports are the three carriages driving economic growth. We also look forward to the early end of the cold snap in the first quarter of this year, to overcome this difficult winter, and to welcome the arrival of spring as soon as possible.