General

According to customs data, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports in the first two months of this year was 6.18 trillion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year. As the largest country in global goods trade, China's foreign trade growth has always been a topic of high concern. The sudden negative growth at the beginning of the year naturally caused widespread concern at home and abroad. In fact, analyzing and interpreting this data from different perspectives can lead to different conclusions.

First, when analyzing the growth rate of spot foreign trade, base period factors should also be considered. At the beginning of last year, China's foreign trade grew rapidly and had a large base. According to customs data, from January to February 2022, China's total import and export of goods amounted to 6.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. If we further improve the scale and growth rate of foreign trade based on the rapid growth in the same period last year, the difficulty will naturally increase accordingly.

The second is to comprehensively consider many factors at home and abroad when analyzing the growth rate of foreign trade. Foreign trade is a barometer of international political and economic relations. Against the backdrop of major changes not seen in a century, black swan emergencies have occurred frequently, uncertainty has increased, and significant fluctuations in trade have become the new normal. In recent years, the epidemic situation has been repeated for three years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved into a protracted war, and in addition to the artificial "chain breaking and decoupling" of individual countries, the international industrial chain supply chain has suffered abnormal repression and distortion. Especially affected by factors such as the fluctuation of the epidemic situation and national epidemic prevention policies, customs data show that China's foreign trade growth rate increased from 3.4% year-on-year in 2019, 1.9% in 2020, to 21.4% in 2021, 7.7% in 2022, and to - 0.8% in the first two months of this year. From a double-digit high growth rate, to a negative number, the rapid decline in growth rate is like a roller coaster. However, in the long run, the negative growth of China's foreign trade is only a temporary accident, and the overall trend is still rising, with a fast or slow pace. Once the preconditions for emergencies disappear, it will return to the upward path.

Third, sharp fluctuations in commodity prices in the international market will also affect the scale and growth of trade. In recent years, the prices of primary products and bulk commodities in the international market have fluctuated frequently and violently, and they remained high last year. At the beginning of this year, there was a significant correction. The unequal volume of trade will directly drive down the growth of foreign trade. According to customs data, in 2022, the average import prices of crude oil and liquefied natural gas increased by about 50%, driving the corresponding increase in import value by about 30% to 50%, both accounting for 53% of the total regional import value during the same period. During the same period, the average export price of refined oil products in Beijing increased by about 77%, driving the corresponding increase in export value by about 45%, accounting for 33% of Beijing's total export value. As a major importer of primary products and bulk commodities, the sharp decline in their prices is actually a significant benefit. Under equal import conditions, the decrease in trade volume and growth rate caused by the decline in import value precisely means the improvement of foreign trade benefits.

Fourth, to evaluate foreign trade performance, in addition to scale and growth indicators, it is also necessary to examine the market, commodity structure, and changes in quality and efficiency. In general, the more diversified and diversified the national/regional market, the greater the degree of market dispersion and uniformity, the better the stability and sustainability of trade. According to customs data, in the first two months of this year, China's exports to ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea were 570 billion yuan, 183.56 billion yuan, and 165.22 billion yuan, respectively, up 17.9%, 6.7%, and 10.2% year-on-year; The import and export to countries along the "the Belt and Road" reached 2.12 trillion yuan, up 10.1% year on year, of which the import and export to Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia increased 30.3%, 15% and 12.8% year on year respectively; The total imports and exports to other RCEP member countries amounted to 1.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Most of the above countries/regions belong to emerging markets, and their ability to counter trend growth while declining market share in traditional countries/regions is, in a sense, a success of China's market diversification strategy. The fact that the East is not bright and the West is bright indicates that China's trade stability and resilience are increasing. In terms of the structure of foreign trade commodities, in recent years, China's exports of high-tech products have grown rapidly, with a continuous increase in market share. In the first two months of this year, the total exports of three products, including electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar batteries, have increased by 60%, and the structure of foreign trade commodities is increasingly optimized.

Therefore, we need to have a clear, objective, comprehensive, and accurate understanding of the current downward trend in China's foreign trade growth. We need not only to see the challenges and difficulties faced, but also to analyze the root causes of the problem, take effective measures, address both the symptoms and root causes, and turn the crisis into an opportunity. As a researcher on China's foreign trade and trade promotion work, the author puts forward the following suggestions from the perspective of trade promotion work:

First, consolidate the industrial foundation for trade development. According to the strategic deployment of the Party Group of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, accelerate the focus of trade promotion work, gradually expand from trade and investment promotion to industrial development promotion, guide enterprises to take the path of scientific and technological innovation, increase investment in research and development, strengthen international scientific and technological cooperation, and enhance the technological content of products; Guide enterprises to take the path of standardization, branding, and internationalization, improve product quality and added value, and enhance their core competitiveness.

The second is to unswervingly implement the market diversification strategy. Adhere to the simultaneous development of domestic and international markets, and accelerate the formation of a new pattern of domestic and international dual circulation. Pay attention to telling a good Chinese story externally, clarify the misreading of me by individual foreign media, strive to resolve the misunderstanding of me by the West, establish a broad international industrial and commercial united front, and consolidate the traditional developed country market. At the same time, actively help enterprises explore emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, Central Asia, South America, Africa, and Russia, forming a new situation of balanced development between traditional and emerging markets. Domestically, actively promote the country to further optimize consumption policies, promote balanced development in the eastern, central, and western regions, and improve the consumption capacity of the central and western regions; Vigorously promote the "Three One Chess" advocated by Ren Hongbin, President of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, give full play to the power of the national trade promotion system, and promote the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade.

Third, further improve the trade promotion service system. Accelerate the global layout of the trade promotion network and effectively play the role of multilateral and bilateral business cooperation mechanisms in trade promotion work; To further improve the pertinence and effectiveness of financial services, information services, and platform services, it is necessary to give full play to the role of specialized classes serving foreign investment, provide high-quality services throughout the entire industrial chain for foreign-funded enterprises, enhance their confidence in operating in China, maintain the stability of foreign-funded enterprise trading entities, and make new contributions to stabilizing foreign investment and foreign trade.