General

The World Trade Organization has raised its global trade growth forecast for 2023! The World Trade Organization released a report on the 5th, predicting that global trade in goods will increase by 1.7% in 2023, higher than the 1% predicted in October last year. The report states that the "key factor" in raising global trade growth expectations is China's continuous optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention measures, which helps to release consumer demand and promote international trade growth.

According to the annual "Global Trade Data and Prospects" report released by the World Trade Organization on the same day, due to negative factors such as the Ukrainian crisis, high inflation, monetary tightening policies, and financial market instability, the global trade growth rate this year will significantly slow down compared to last year and also be lower than the average level in recent years.

The report shows that due to the significant decline in global trade month on month in the fourth quarter, the growth rate of global trade volume in 2022 was lower than expected, at 2.7%.

The report states that based on market exchange rates, the global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is expected to be 2.4% in 2023. In 2024, global GDP growth is expected to rebound to 2.6%, and global trade growth will rebound to 3.2%.

Ralph Ossa, chief economist of the World Trade Organization, said that the continued impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the growing geopolitical tensions are the main factors affecting global trade and output in 2022. In addition, the continued interest rate hikes in developed economies have also exacerbated the fragility of the banking system, which, if left unchecked, may lead to broader financial instability.

World Trade Organization Director General Ivira stated that trade remains a force in enhancing global economic resilience, but in 2023, trade will face pressure from external factors. Governments should avoid fragmentation of trade and exercise restraint in introducing trade restriction policies.