General

Despite the repeated COVID-19, weak global economic recovery and intensified geopolitical conflicts, the import and export trade between China and the EU still achieved a counter trend growth. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs recently, in the first 8 months, the EU was China's second largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.75 trillion yuan between China and the EU, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, accounting for 13.7% of China's total foreign trade value. According to data from the Eurostat, the trade volume between the 27 EU countries and China in the first half of the year was 413.9 billion euros, an increase of 28.3% year-on-year. Among them, EU exports to China amounted to 112.2 billion euros, a decrease of 0.4%; Imports from China amounted to 301.7 billion euros, an increase of 43.3%.

In the view of the interviewed experts, this set of data confirms the strong complementarity and potential of China Europe's economic and trade relations. No matter how the international situation changes, the economic and trade interests of both sides are still closely connected. China and Europe should enhance mutual trust and communication at all levels to further inject "stabilizers" into bilateral and even global supply chain security.

Bilateral trade is expected to maintain growth throughout the year

Since the beginning of this year, China's economic and trade cooperation with the European Union has shown strong resilience and vitality. "The EU's dependence on China's imports increased in the first half of the year." Cai Tongjuan, a researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Finance and Deputy Director of the Macro Research Department of Renmin University of China, analyzed in an interview with the International Business Daily reporter that the main reason was that the EU's manufacturing operation rate declined under the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions against Russia, and became more dependent on imports. However, China has withstood the test of the epidemic, and the domestic industrial and supply chains are relatively complete and functioning normally. In addition, the China Europe freight train has also filled the gap in sea and air transportation that is easily affected by the epidemic, ensuring uninterrupted transportation between China and Europe, and making a huge contribution to trade cooperation between China and Europe.

From a micro perspective, European companies such as BMW, Audi, and Airbus continue to expand their business in China this year. A survey on the development plans of European companies in China shows that 19% of European companies in China have expanded their existing production business scale, and 65% have maintained their production business scale. The industry believes that this reflects the firm confidence of European companies in investing in China, the resilience of China's economic development, and the strong attractiveness of the domestic market to European multinational corporations.

It is worth noting that the recent interest rate hike by the European Central Bank and the downward pressure on the euro may have multiple impacts on imports and exports between China and Europe. The impact of the depreciation of the euro on China Europe trade has already been evident in July and August, and the growth rate of China Europe trade in these two months has slowed down compared to the first half of the year. Cai Tongjuan predicts that if the euro continues to depreciate, it will make "Made in China" relatively more expensive, which will have an impact on the order volume of China's exports to the European Union in the fourth quarter; At the same time, the depreciation of the euro will make "Made in Europe" relatively cheap, which is conducive to increasing China's imports from the EU, reducing the EU's trade deficit with China, and promoting a more balanced trade between China and Europe.

Throughout the year, despite the sluggish economic growth in Europe and the impact of the depreciation of the euro, the basic demand between China and Europe remains stable. In the fourth quarter of the heating season, the EU's demand for related equipment and products from China will continue to increase, so China Europe trade will continue to grow throughout the year, "concluded Cai Tongjuan.

We should further strengthen the "double chain" cooperation

Looking forward to the future, strengthening economic and trade cooperation between China and Europe is still the trend.

In the context of economic globalization, China, as the world's largest manufacturing and exporting country, has formed a close industrial and supply chain relationship with Europe. However, the industry calls for more attention to the impact of COVID-19, geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather and other events on the supply chain of China and Europe.

At the recently held International Forum on "China's Economy and the New Future of China Europe Cooperation", attending experts emphasized that China Europe economic and trade cooperation is currently facing some challenges, but both companies are still searching for ways to cope with potential risks, and the basic framework of China Europe economic and trade cooperation remains stable. China and Europe should enhance mutual trust and communication at all levels to further inject "stabilizers" into bilateral and even global supply chain security.

Experts attending the meeting suggested that in terms of maritime transportation channels, both parties can strengthen information sharing and jointly participate in the formulation of market rules and industry norms, promote the digital capacity construction of operation systems, and strengthen the construction of port collection and distribution systems to adjust and plan maritime transportation capacity; In terms of air transportation channels, we should guide the layout of China Europe routes to align with the needs of the manufacturing industry, and jointly build a full link service capacity for air transportation channels between China and Europe; In terms of railway channels, by establishing intergovernmental cooperation mechanisms, building a green and secure information resource sharing mechanism for upstream and downstream trains, and supporting enterprises related to China Europe trains to strengthen docking, we aim to achieve deep integration between China Europe trains and industries in countries along the route, and further stabilize the international industrial chain supply chain system.

Cai Tongjuan stated that in the supply chain cooperation between China and Europe, technology trade has become the most dynamic part. In recent years, China's imports of telecommunications, computer and information services, and intellectual property rights from the European Union have grown rapidly. The potential for cooperation between China and Europe in trade is mainly concentrated in the field of service trade. The resumption and signing of the China Europe Investment Agreement should be facilitated as soon as possible, which will facilitate mutual investment between China and Europe in new energy, electric vehicles, cloud services, financial services, and healthcare, and drive further growth in bilateral trade.