General

Foreign trade connects domestic and international markets and resources, playing an important role in building a new development pattern. Affected by multiple factors, China's foreign trade this year will still face severe challenges with increasing uncertainty in the international situation, but the new vitality hidden in it is also constantly emerging.

Overall, China's foreign trade situation has started steadily with a positive trend. According to Chinese customs data, in terms of scale, the total import and export volume of goods in the first two months was 6176.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. Among them, exports reached 3493.6 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9%; Import reached 2683.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9%. Customs data shows that, especially in February, the total foreign trade increased by 1.3% year-on-year, while imports showed growth both year-on-year and month on month.

From the perspective of trading partners, the trade volume with traditional developed countries in Europe and America has decreased, while the trade scale with emerging and developing markets has continued to grow. In the first two months, the total import and export volume of goods trade between China and developed economies decreased by 13.1%, exports decreased by 12.4%, and imports decreased by 14.1%; The total trade volume with emerging markets and developing economies increased by 0.5%, exports increased by 1.7%, and imports decreased by 1.0%. Currently, emerging and other markets account for 55.5% of China's foreign trade export share, 11 percentage points higher than traditional markets.

Since 2019, ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner. Customs data shows that in the first two months of this year, China's total trade with ASEAN increased by 1.3%, exports increased by 9.0%, and imports decreased by 8.3%. The total trade volume between China and its second largest trading partner, the European Union, decreased by 10.0%, exports decreased by 12.2%, and imports decreased by 5.5%. China's total trade with the United States decreased by 17.4%, exports decreased by 21.8%, and imports decreased by 5.0%.

The scale of trade with countries along the "the Belt and Road" is growing, and the circle of trade friends is expanding. As of December last year, China has signed more than 200 cooperation documents with 150 countries and 32 international organizations to jointly build the "the Belt and Road". According to customs data, the trade volume with countries along the "the Belt and Road" in the first two months of this year accounted for 31% of China's total trade volume. Among them, the total trade volume between China and Afghanistan increased by 222.3%, exports increased by 231.6%, and imports increased by 101.9%; Maintain a positive growth trend in foreign trade with the five Central Asian countries; The total trade volume with Belarus increased by 60.7%, exports increased by 63.6%, and imports increased by 55.8%. The total trade volume between China and Russia increased by 25.9% in the first two months, with exports increasing by 19.8% and imports increasing by 31.3%. The recently reached comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation between China and Russia in the new era will further stimulate the trade potential of the two countries.

From the perspective of foreign trade structure, traditional manufactured goods such as clothing and toys have been affected by weak overseas demand markets, resulting in a slowdown in export growth. Customs data shows that in the first two months, the export of domestic textile raw materials and textile products decreased by 18.0%, while the export of household manufactured goods such as shoes and hats decreased by 13.5%. However, the export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 0.4%, accounting for 58.0% of the total export volume.

At the same time, new highlights and driving forces in foreign trade have further unleashed vitality. In addition to the continued acceleration of cross-border e-commerce, there are also other new changes in foreign trade. With the transformation of the global digital economy and green industrial development, the demand for related products such as solar photovoltaic panels, onshore wind and offshore renewable energy, battery and energy multimeter, heat pump and grid technology is increasing. Global new energy industries such as photovoltaic and product trade are entering a window period. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total export of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells in China increased by 60% in the first two months of this year.

In addition, international demand for raw materials such as uranium and lithium has also seen an increase. In particular, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought heavy losses to the international energy market, it has accelerated the green transformation of global energy to a certain extent. If the EU accelerates the introduction of carbon border tariffs this year, it has previously introduced the 'Key Raw Materials Act'. From the data, in January and February, China's export of mineral products increased by 56.6%, the export of inorganic chemicals, precious metals, rare earth metals, radioactive elements and their isotopes of organic and inorganic compound increased by 38.5%, the import increased by 80.5%, the export of nickel increased by 242.0%, and the import increased by 28.3%.

The slow recovery of domestic consumption will support the growth of foreign trade imports. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February reached 7706.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Among them, the national online retail sales reached 2054.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The country has continuously introduced multiple policies to stabilize growth and promote consumption, and continuously refined them to improve policy effectiveness. The most important thing is that the expectation of China's economic growth of around 5% has boosted market confidence, and the expectation of domestic employment and income growth has been strengthened, which will ensure the basic consumer base and effectively support the expansion of imports, sharing new opportunities for China's economic growth with the international community. The current international community's expectations for China's economic growth are constantly increasing, and exhibitions such as the Canton Fair, China Import and Export Fair, China Consumer Expo, and China Service Trade Fair have also become important platforms for foreign goods and services to enter the domestic market.

The current international situation is becoming increasingly uncertain, and the growth momentum of the world economy and trade is weakening. The United Nations predicts that global trade will stagnate in the first half of this year. However, in the Asian region, multiple international organizations and think tanks have raised their growth expectations for the region and China. The International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank both believe that the Asia Pacific region will become the most dynamic major region in the world, and China will become the main engine to support the economic development of the Asia Pacific region.

Reform and opening up is China's basic national policy. After the continuous preparations of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the 2022 Central Economic Work Conference, and the National Two Sessions, the stability and transparency of China's opening-up policy have been continuously improved, and the level of opening-up has been continuously improved. Local policies promoting the improvement of the business environment have also been put into effect. Internationally, China has actively responded to the consulting work of the World Bank's new version of the business environment evaluation index system and also led the negotiations on the WTO Investment Facilitation Agreement. With the high-quality promotion of the joint construction of the "the Belt and Road", China's foreign trade is expected to continue its steady and positive momentum this year.