General

The World Trade Organization released its annual "Global Trade Data and Prospects" report on April 5th, predicting that global trade in goods will increase by 1.7% in 2023, higher than the 1% forecast in October last year. WTO Director General Ivira stated that trade remains a force in enhancing global economic resilience, but in 2023, trade will face pressure from external factors.

The interviewed experts stated that looking forward to 2023, global trade is still affected by many uncertain factors, so it is even more necessary for all parties to work together to promote global trade growth.

Trade growth will significantly slow down

In October last year, the World Trade Organization released a forecast stating that the world economy was subject to multiple shocks, and it is expected that global trade will lose its growth momentum in the second half of 2022, with a significant decrease in growth rate in 2023. World Trade Organization economists have lowered their expectations for the growth rate of global trade in goods to 1% in 2023.

The report "Global Trade Data and Prospects" states that due to negative factors such as the Ukrainian crisis, high inflation, monetary tightening policies, and unstable financial markets, the global trade growth rate this year will significantly slow down compared to last year and be lower than the average level in recent years. It is expected that global trade in goods will increase by 1.7% in 2023, which is lower than the 2.7% increase in 2022 and the average level of 2.6% in the past 12 years. The report states that the main reason for the expected decrease in global trade growth in 2023 is the significant decline in global trade in the fourth quarter of 2022. Global trade increased by 4.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2022, while it decreased by 2.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

On March 1st, the World Trade Organization released a report stating that the growth momentum of global trade in goods weakened in the fourth quarter of 2022, and this trend may continue in the first quarter of 2023. The latest issue of the "Goods Trade Barometer" released by the World Trade Organization also shows that the global goods trade prosperity index is 92.2, lower than the benchmark point of 100, and slightly lower than the 96.2 released in November last year.

Zhou Mi, Deputy Director and Researcher of the Institute of America and Oceania at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, stated in an interview with reporters that although global trade development has been affected by many uncertain factors this year, he still holds a relatively optimistic attitude. Zhou Mi stated that in the current situation where countries are concerned about economic development, if countries can take positive actions, it will be beneficial for the development of international trade. At the same time, international trade is also continuously innovating, and new trade methods and product hotspots are constantly emerging in the development of international trade. The rotation of hotspots is also conducive to accelerating the recovery of global trade. In addition, although the decline in some commodity prices has affected the growth of international trade volume, the volume of goods trade will continue to grow.

Zhou Mi also said that China plays a positive and important role in the entire international trading system. Against the backdrop of sustained economic recovery in China, global trade may accelerate the formation of some new characteristics, and the supply chain will gradually recover.

The report "Global Trade Data and Prospects" mentions that the "key factor" in raising global trade growth expectations is China's continuous optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention measures, which helps to release consumer demand and promote international trade growth.

Jointly driving global trade recovery

According to reports, Ivila stated that trade remains a force in enhancing global economic resilience, but trade will face external pressure in 2023. Governments should avoid fragmentation of trade and exercise restraint in introducing trade restriction policies. WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa previously stated that cultivating deeper and more diversified international markets based on open and predictable trade rules will make global trade more resilient.

For promoting global trade growth, it is carefully recommended to first have confidence, which comes from the optimistic attitude of all parties towards future expectations. In the current situation of facing many uncertain factors, China has been actively releasing signals of expanding openness and strengthening trade relations. At the same time, other countries need to take active actions and take various measures to translate consensus into stable market expectations. Secondly, it is necessary to optimize and improve rules as much as possible and strengthen rule-based cooperation to minimize barriers and human intervention that have a direct negative impact on global trade activities. International trade also requires new rules, and how to form new rules and make them recognized by countries, enterprises, and markets, so that they can truly play their role in leading trade development, creating a relaxed environment, and encouraging innovation, is something that needs to be emphasized and promoted by all parties

In addition, Zhou Mi said that promoting global trade growth also requires attention to some new issues, such as the impact of green, low-carbon, and digital economy on international trade development. Therefore, it is necessary to explore more adaptive measures, which are crucial for promoting the recovery of global trade itself and achieving the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.