General

On April 13th, customs data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that the total import and export value of China's goods trade in the first quarter was 9.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. According to customs data, exports reached 5.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year; Import reached 4.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%.

As of March, China's total import and export value reached 3.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%. According to customs data, exports reached 2.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%; The import reached 1.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%.

This achievement far exceeds market expectations. Lu Daliang, spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis, stated that in January this year, imports and exports decreased by 7% due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday; February quickly transitioned from negative to positive, with an increase of 8% that month; The year-on-year growth rate in March increased to 15.5%, showing a positive trend month by month. Overall, China's foreign trade showed strong resilience in the first quarter, with a stable and positive start, laying the foundation for achieving stability and quality improvement in foreign trade throughout the year

Continuously cultivating and strengthening new advantages and new driving forces

In March, the export growth rate exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5% in export containers and a 20.3% increase in import freight volume, fully demonstrating the resilience of China's foreign trade. "Liu Dian, a specially invited associate researcher at the China Research Institute of Fudan University, said in an interview with reporters.

Under multiple pressures, why has China's export growth rebounded against the trend? Looking at the first quarter's foreign trade data, the answer is clear at a glance——

Faced with the current challenge of weakened foreign demand, China's foreign trade has risen to challenges, and new advantages and growth drivers in foreign trade competition have been continuously cultivated and strengthened, playing a more positive role in the overall stability and improvement of foreign trade. Lv Daliang introduced that in the first quarter, ASEAN continued to be China's largest trading partner, with China's imports and exports to ASEAN reaching 1.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%; Import and export to emerging markets such as Latin America and Africa increased by 11.7% and 14.1%, respectively. The total proportion of scale increased by 2.4 percentage points to 28.4%. Over the same period, the import and export of China and the countries along the "the Belt and Road" totaled 3.43 trillion yuan, up 16.8% year on year; The total import and export volume with the other 14 member countries of RCEP reached 3.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%.

According to customs data, from the perspective of export structure, the performance of new advantageous products is impressive. In the first quarter, the total exports of electric passenger vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells were 264.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.9%, driving an overall export growth of 2 percentage points in the first quarter, and further enhancing the driving force compared to last year. Among them, the export of electric passenger vehicles reached 64.75 billion yuan, an increase of 122.3%, with the fastest growth rate among the "new three types".

Liu Dian believes that the main reasons for the monthly improvement in foreign trade in the first quarter can be analyzed from both domestic and international perspectives. On the one hand, the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies have led to a gradual recovery of the domestic economy, driving export growth. At the same time, China's foreign trade structure has continued to optimize, promoting high-quality development of foreign trade, and further expanding the foreign trade market. On the other hand, thanks to the deepening and implementation of the joint construction of the "the Belt and Road" and the effective implementation of RCEP, China's exports with ASEAN and countries along the "the Belt and Road" continued to maintain a high boom, which promoted the growth of overall foreign trade.

Achieving a good start in foreign trade will have an important promoting effect on stabilizing the scale and structure of foreign trade in the later stage, as well as global trade. Liu Dian said, firstly, it has promoted the optimization of the export commodity structure, which will continuously enhance China's international competitiveness in foreign trade; The second is to enhance the confidence and motivation of foreign trade enterprises, which will continue to stimulate their innovative vitality; Thirdly, it provides a stable growth point for global trade and will promote the recovery of global trade.

Customs data also confirms this: in the first quarter, various foreign trade entities engaged in import and export competition and steadily developed. Among them, the import and export growth rate of private enterprises is higher than the overall, and they continue to play the role of the main force in foreign trade. There were 457000 foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%; The import and export of private enterprises reached 5.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, accounting for 52.4% of the total foreign trade value.

The positive trend of foreign trade is expected to continue further

Is the good trend of foreign trade opening expected to continue in the second quarter?

Lv Daliang stated that currently, the weakening of external demand caused by high global inflation and weak growth in major economies has had a direct impact on China's foreign trade. At the same time, risks such as protectionism and geopolitics have further increased the instability, uncertainty, and unpredictability of the global economy, and China's foreign trade development will face greater difficulties and challenges.

But it is also important to note that China's economy has strong resilience, great potential, and abundant vitality, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement remain unchanged. We believe that with the continuous overall improvement of China's economic operation, the momentum of positive foreign trade is expected to continue further, "said Lv Daliang.

In April, China's foreign trade welcomed two major benefits in a row: the third China International Consumer Goods Expo is being held in full swing; The 133rd Canton Fair, which will be held offline and fully restored, will soon open on April 15th, injecting a continuous stream of new momentum into the development of foreign trade.

Liu Dian also expressed optimism about the continuation of a positive trend in foreign trade. However, he believes that close attention still needs to be paid to changes and challenges in the domestic and international environment.

"Against the backdrop of uncertainty in the external environment and greater downward pressure on the international economy, China should continue to focus on expanding diversified trade markets, continue to expand import and export trade, and strengthen trade cooperation with countries along the the Belt and Road and developing countries." Liu Dian said, at the same time, it should accelerate the transformation and upgrading of digital, intelligent, green and other directions, and improve the added value and international competitiveness of China's foreign trade. In addition, we need to promote the deep integration, transformation and upgrading of the upstream and downstream of the foreign trade industry chain, and promote the high-quality development of China's foreign trade.