General

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs recently, China's international trade in goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, while exports increased by 8.4%, reversing the slight decline in foreign trade from January to February. Foreign trade showed accelerated growth on a monthly basis. The export growth data is more eye-catching, with exports increasing by 23.4% year-on-year and 48.4% month on month in March, significantly higher than the export levels from January to February. These data indicate that China's advantages in international trade development are evident, showing strong resilience and a stable start.

Currently, due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, tightening monetary policies in major countries, high inflation, and uncertainty in global financial markets, trade among countries around the world is showing a tightening trend, and international trade competition is becoming increasingly fierce. China's high labor productivity, continuously improving research and development level, strong industrial supporting capacity, ultra large market space, strong policy guarantees, and continuous release of institutional innovation dividends constitute a comprehensive advantage of strong foreign trade resilience and stability, reflecting strong foreign trade competitiveness. To achieve the strategy of becoming a trade powerhouse, it is necessary to take stabilizing confidence and boosting expectations as the basic foothold, promote the firm confidence of foreign trade entities to face difficulties and transform it into active and effective action consciousness, in order to better respond to various risks and challenges, and promote the leap from quantitative to qualitative changes in foreign trade.

Expectation refers to a psychological activity that forms future psychological judgments based on the understanding of the actual situation. In economics, expectations are the judgments of different entities in the economy, such as the government, enterprises, and the public, on the trend of economic development and corresponding actions taken accordingly. Generally speaking, with sufficient information, economic entities can better understand the long-term factors that affect economic development, make correct judgments, and take rational actions. However, under the condition of asymmetric information, the economic subject may only focus on the current situation, and under the influence of short-term factors, form an irrational expectation of the future, make wrong judgments and behaviors, and affect the long-term economic development. At present, China's foreign trade is showing a steady and positive trend in the complex external environment, but there are also short-term fluctuations and difficulties. If the foreign trade expectation weakens and there is an irrational expectation, it will not be conducive to the stability and long-term sustainable development of foreign trade. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on the long-term, boost good expectations for foreign trade development, guide foreign trade related entities to correctly understand the fundamental aspects of China's foreign trade development, rationally judge the comprehensive advantages and long-term foundation of foreign trade development, and adopt scientific and reasonable behavior.

To boost foreign trade expectations, we need to firmly believe. Eliminate short-term factors and negative information interference in foreign trade, emphasize long-term beliefs in foreign trade development, and make long-term plans. The focus on boosting the good expectations of foreign trade is not on the short-term performance of certain indicators, let alone simply adopting short-term single policies based on the rise and fall of certain indicators. Instead, we should focus on the long-term development of trade, continuously adjust and improve policies, strike a good combination of foreign trade policies, and propose scientific and clear path plans for the long-term problems of foreign trade. Only in this way can foreign trade entities comprehensively and rationally grasp the current situation and future of foreign trade, strengthen their beliefs, and continue to exert their efforts. The recently held executive meeting of the State Council proposed to "continuously enrich, adjust and improve relevant policies, and implement a combination of stable foreign trade policies", which brings good expectations for the development of international trade from a policy perspective.

To boost foreign trade expectations, it is necessary to effectively implement and coordinate various policies and measures. Based on the current situation of foreign trade development, in response to various deep-seated problems and constraints in foreign trade development, we should effectively implement various policies to stabilize and strengthen foreign trade, pay attention to coordinating and closely linking various policy measures, promote the balance and linkage between long-term foreign trade goals, key tasks, macro policies, and reform measures, avoid policy conflicts and overlap of executing agencies, and strengthen policy synergy, Raise good expectations for the effectiveness of implementing foreign trade policies.

To boost foreign trade expectations, it is even more necessary to strengthen publicity and communication to reduce information asymmetry. Strengthen publicity and communication with foreign trade entities through various channels, and enhance their understanding of various supportive policies and comprehensive advantages of foreign trade; Through the scientific interpretation of the strategy of trade power, we will increase the publicity of scientific plans and effective programs for foreign trade development, and enhance the rational expectations of foreign trade subjects for China's high-level opening up. Timely respond to the demands and concerns of foreign trade enterprises, strengthen information symmetry, break down information barriers, and actively guide the healthy development of psychological expectations of foreign trade entities.

Continuously deepening the reform of the foreign trade system is also necessary to boost foreign trade expectations. With the goal of building a new system of a higher level of open economy, we should continue to create a first-class foreign trade business environment. Taking the construction of free trade pilot zones and free trade ports as an opportunity, we should deepen the reform of systems and mechanisms in key areas of foreign trade, comprehensively implement reform measures, promote the liberalization and facilitation of foreign trade, effectively transform government functions, build a service-oriented government, and create an open, transparent, fair competition, open and innovative foreign trade environment. At the same time, promote the formation of a positive understanding of future development space and opportunities among international trade entities, boost development expectations, and activate the momentum of foreign trade.