General

International trade reflects the supply-demand relationship between various participating parties and is also a leading indicator of the economic development trend of various countries, and the trade changes of major global trade members are more worthy of attention. According to the latest data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US trade deficit in February increased from $68.7 billion to $70.5 billion compared to January. Both exports and imports have decreased compared to last month, but exports have declined even faster. Service trade remains an area where the United States has a comparative advantage, and its surplus has played a positive role in reducing the scale of the US trade deficit. In February, the US trade deficit in goods increased by $2.7 billion compared to the previous month, reaching $93 billion; The surplus of service trade increased by $800 million compared to last month, reaching $22.4 billion.

Compared with historical data, the size of the trade deficit in February is approximately at the level of mid-2021. Comparing the size of the US trade deficit with its internal and external environment, it can be found that domestic demand is an important factor leading to changes in its deficit. From 2014 to 2018, the monthly trade deficit of the United States remained stable in the range of $30 billion to $50 billion. With the increase in tariffs during the Trump administration, the trade deficit of the United States once increased to nearly $60 billion. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, the weakening of domestic demand once again pushed the US trade deficit to less than US $40 billion. Afterwards, domestic demand in the United States significantly recovered, purchasing power strengthened, and there was an urgent need to purchase goods from around the world. As a result, the monthly trade deficit of the United States continued to rise. At the beginning of 2022, the monthly deficit reached a high of nearly $110 billion, almost three times the level of the deficit between 2014 and 2019. Afterwards, with the resolute intervention of the Federal Reserve to suppress inflation with high interest rates, the US deficit has declined somewhat. Even so, the current level of deficit in the United States is still significantly higher than the level during the 2014-2019 period (approximately twice). From the current situation, it is unclear whether the US deficit has reached a new balance, but whether the growth of this deficit will have a significant impact on the US and global economy is worth paying attention to and considering.

The export value of goods and services from the United States in February was $251.2 billion, a decrease of $6.9 billion (2.7%) compared to the previous month. Goods exports decreased by $8.5 billion, while services exports increased by $1.7 billion. Among them, the decrease in the export of goods was mainly reflected in the following: the export of industrial raw materials decreased by 2.6 billion dollars, the export of automobiles, spare parts and engines decreased by 1.9 billion dollars, the export of consumer goods decreased by 1.4 billion dollars (the export of pharmaceutical preparations decreased by 2.3 billion dollars), and the export of capital goods decreased by 1.3 billion dollars (the export of civil aircraft decreased by 0.5 billion dollars). The capital goods here refer to goods that assist in the production of other goods or services, such as machinery and equipment used for the production of goods. It can be seen that although the export of goods from the United States decreased in February, the reasons may be different. The decrease in exports of raw materials and capital goods may be due to the increased competition for related goods in the international trade market, leading to a decrease in the competitiveness of American goods. It may also be due to the acceleration of their domestic production capacity, which may cause these producers to shift their products originally supplied to the international trade market to the domestic market. In contrast, the increase in US service exports in February mainly came from tourism services, with more tourists resuming cross-border travel activities.

The international trade imports of goods and services from the United States in February were $321.7 billion, a decrease of $5 billion (1.5%) compared to the previous month. Among them, the import of goods decreased by 5.8 billion US dollars and the import of services increased by 800 million US dollars. The decrease in goods imports is mainly due to a decrease of $3.7 billion in consumer goods and a decrease of $2.9 billion in automobiles, parts, and engines. The decrease in consumer goods imports is to some extent affected by the price drop caused by the easing of inflationary pressure. The dual decline in exports and imports of automobiles, components, and engines in the United States indicates that the contribution of the US automotive manufacturing industry to the global automotive supply chain has weakened. The import of services in the United States in February was mainly due to the growth of transportation services ($700 million), which is closely related to the export of commodities and other goods, as well as the more active flow of people.

In the context of economic globalization, countries have formed mutually beneficial cooperative relationships through industrial and supply chains. As an important global trade participant, the changes in international trade imports and exports of the United States have a significant impact on its trading partners, and the role of its imports is particularly important. The "Global Trade Outlook Report 2023" released by the WTO in early April predicted that the expected growth rate of global goods trade in 2023 would be 1.7%. Among them, the export growth rate in North America is expected to be 3.3%, while imports may experience a 0.1% decline. In 2024, the export growth rate in North America is expected to decrease to 3.1%, while imports will return to a growth rate of 1.4%. Based on this calculation, during the 6-year period from 2019 to 2024, the annual growth in imports from the United States was only 3 years, and the market created by US imports for countries around the world is not considered stable. In the face of the global economic recovery demand during the post pandemic period, it is even more necessary for the international market to form stable development expectations, establish trustworthy trade relations, and reduce the impact of drastic fluctuations caused by policy intervention.