General

In 2022, China's imports of crude oil, natural gas, coal, and lignite energy products decreased year-on-year. Industry insiders predict that in 2023, the decline in China's crude oil imports is expected to decrease, natural gas imports are expected to show a growth trend, while coal and lignite are unlikely to show a significant upward trend.

According to customs data, in 2022, China's crude oil imports reached 508.276 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. Xi Jiarui, an analyst at Jinlian Innovation, said, "In 2022, under the influence of geopolitical factors, international oil prices rose abnormally and the cost of crude oil imports was too high, which was the main reason for the year-on-year decrease in China's crude oil imports in 2022

Currently, Saudi Arabia is China's largest source of crude oil imports, with Russia ranking second and Iraq third. According to customs data, from January to November 2022, China imported 80.384 million tons of Saudi crude oil, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%; Imported 79791000 tons of Russian crude oil, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year; The import of Iraqi crude oil reached 50.427 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%.

When it comes to the trend of China's crude oil imports in 2023, Xi Jiarui stated that with the recovery of market demand, the decline in China's crude oil imports will be reduced, with an expected year-on-year decrease of around 0.6%.

According to customs data, in 2022, China's natural gas imports reached 109.248 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%. Jin Lianchuang Natural Gas Analyst Lv Na said, "In 2022, due to geopolitical influence, global energy prices skyrocketed, and international natural gas prices repeatedly hit historical highs. The sustained high gas prices have dampened the enthusiasm of domestic importers to purchase LNG spot, and the frequent opening of Asia Europe arbitrage windows has led to some long-term cooperation resources being resold to Europe, which is the main reason for the year-on-year decline in China's natural gas imports in 2022

In 2022, China's natural gas import source countries have shown a diversified characteristic. From January to November 2022, China imported LNG resources from 22 countries. Among them, Australia played an important role in the source countries of imported LNG, but the proportion of imports decreased significantly. This is mainly due to high spot costs, a decrease in domestic spot purchases from Australia, and a large number of new LNG long-term agreements implemented in 2022, but without Australian resources, resulting in a significant decline in Australia's share. Thanks to CNOOC and Sinopec The newly signed LNG long-term agreement with Qatar began to be implemented in early 2022, and Qatar ranks second among the countries of origin for imported LNG Lvna stated that Russia has risen from 6th place in the same period in 2021 to 4th place in 2022 in the source countries of imported LNG. In November 2022, China imported 852000 tons of LNG from Russia, setting the highest monthly record since China imported LNG from Russia. In terms of pipeline gas, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Myanmar will become the main suppliers of pipeline gas to China in 2022.

Looking ahead to 2023, Zhai Cuiping, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, believes that China's natural gas imports are expected to show a growth trend in 2023. Although there are still uncertainties in the international environment and the epidemic, with the continuous optimization of China's epidemic prevention policies, domestic natural gas demand is expected to experience a recovery growth in 2023, and natural gas imports will also increase. At the same time, the source countries of China's natural gas imports may also further increase

According to customs data, in 2022, China imported 293.204 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%. Zhao Jing, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, said that, There are two reasons that led to a year-on-year decrease in China's coal imports in 2022: firstly, in early 2022, Indonesia issued a ban on coal exports, further exacerbating the shortage of coal resources in the international market. Secondly, the crisis in Ukraine has caused international coal resources to be tight, leading to a global coal grabbing frenzy and sustained high coal prices. The phenomenon of inversion in domestic imports of medium to high calorie coal has greatly suppressed China's coal imports

According to customs data, in 2022, Indonesia, Russia, and Mongolia became the main sources of coal imports for China. Data shows that from January to November 2022, China imported 153.1195 million tons of Indonesian coal, accounting for 58.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6 percentage points; Imported 61.171 million tons of Russian coal, accounting for 23.3%, an increase of 5.2 percentage points year-on-year; Imported 26.1616 million tons of coal from Mongolia, accounting for 10.0%, an increase of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year.

Zhao Jing believes that in 2023, it will be difficult for China's coal and lignite imports to show a significant upward trend.