General

According to foreign media reports, import and export data shows that Japan's imports increased by 7.3% year-on-year in March, with an expected 11.6%, compared to the previous value of 8.3%. Import and export data shows that Japan's exports increased by 4.3% year-on-year in March, with an expected 2.4%, compared to the previous 6.5%.

Against the backdrop of the current Sino US conflict and the deviation of the old European position, the economic data of Japan's imports and exports, which are deeply integrated into the world economic system, can relatively reflect the situation of the global economy. From the data, the global economy is not as bad as people predict and imagine.

Import and export data shows that in March, Japan's actual import growth was 4.3 percentage points lower than expected, a decrease of one percentage point compared to February. We know that the bulk of Japan's imports are energy, while global petrochemical energy has significantly declined in the past two months, especially in March. It can be believed that the development of global new energy and the reduction of China's dependence on oil and natural gas have reduced the adverse impact of the relative shortage of petrochemical energy on the global economy.

Import and export data shows that Japan's export growth in March was 1.9 percentage points higher than expected, indicating that the global economic recession is not as severe as expected. However, compared to February's export growth, it is still slowing down, indicating that the global economic recession is still ongoing and there is no sign of stopping!

At the recent Spring Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist of the IMF, said: "Downward risks have become increasingly prominent, largely due to the banking system turmoil of the past month and a half." "Although the situation seems to be under control, we are concerned that if the financial situation deteriorates further, it may lead to a more severe and severe recession." The IMF also mentioned a possible pessimistic outlook that the banking crisis will continue to spread, This has led to significant cuts in loans in the United States and other developed economies, a significant reduction in household spending, and investment funds seeking to shift to safe haven assets denominated in US dollars. Import and export data shows that emerging market economies will be heavily hit by declining exports, currency depreciation, and intensified inflation. This situation may slow down the economic growth rate to 1.0% in 2023.

However, the reality now is that the global economy's performance in March was not as unfortunate. And as the Chinese economy accelerates its recovery in the coming time, the global economy will further improve.

From this perspective, the high-quality development of the Chinese economy has the potential to lead the world to another relatively stable state of development. Let time prove this!