General

Recently, the United States Department of Commerce released trade data for 2022, and the US export of goods to China increased by 2.4 billion US dollars to 153.8 billion US dollars; The import volume increased by 31.8 billion US dollars to 536.8 billion US dollars. The total amount of goods trade between China and the United States is as high as 690.6 billion US dollars.

Although in the past few years, the trade relationship between China and the United States has become increasingly fragile, and the United States has launched a trade war against China, carrying out extreme economic pressure measures such as technology suppression, industry disconnection, and capital decoupling, without a bottom line damaging the cornerstone of China US relations, the bilateral trade volume between China and the United States in 2022 has reached a new historical high, surpassing the previous high of $661.522 billion in the 2018 trade war. The reason why China US trade relations have shown surprising resilience and vitality is that:

Firstly, the anti China actions of narrow minded politicians in the United States cannot shake the historical trend of economic globalization. Looking back on the past few decades, the main driving force for the development of the world economy and trade has been economic globalization. Enterprises prioritize efficiency, have a free market, and abide by rules, hoping to obtain production raw materials in the most effective way and provide goods and services to consumers. Even though American politicians continue to set obstacles for economic and trade exchanges between China and the United States, the vast majority of enterprises still adhere to the principle of "economic efficiency first". The above data fully demonstrates that US protectionism and strategic attempts are unpopular, let alone hindering the rolling historical wheels of free trade and globalization. Ed Graser, former assistant trade representative of the United States, also has to admit that "consumer and business decisions are more influential than government decisions

Secondly, the mutually beneficial economic and trade ties between China and the United States are deeply integrated. Since joining the WTO, China has gradually become an important pole in the world trade pattern. China provides high-quality and affordable goods to the United States through export trade, helping the American people reduce inflation and consumption costs. The rapid development of the Chinese economy has also provided huge market opportunities for American enterprises. John Bode, Chairman of the Corn Refining Association of the United States and member of the Farmers' Free Trade Alliance, admitted that trade between China and the United States is mutually beneficial, and that "decoupling from China would be a terrible mistake." Therefore, mutual benefit is the underlying logic of the elasticity and resilience of Sino US economic and trade relations. A temporary economic crackdown may change the short-term trade direction, but it cannot shake or affect the foundation of the mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship between the two countries.

Finally, in 2022, the Federal Reserve entered a major cycle of interest rate hikes. Tight monetary policy has suppressed inflation, but it has also led to a sustained strengthening of the US dollar. In 2022, the US' nominal trade weighted US dollar index surged from 115.08 in January to 127.65 in October, indicating a clear upward trend in the US dollar. In the short term, this has to some extent stimulated the consumption capacity of the American people and the import demand of enterprises, driving up the total bilateral trade in goods between China and the United States.

On the evening of January 18, 2023, the Chinese Consulate General in San Francisco held the 2023 New Year Reception for political and business professionals at the Consulate General's residence. Local government and business guests gathered together to welcome the Chinese Lunar New Year. The picture shows the Beijing Opera performance at the New Year reception attracting guests' attention

At the same time, we must also be aware that if the economic and trade policies of the United States to suppress China are not adjusted in a timely manner, it will permanently damage the Sino US economic and trade relations in the long run. Boston Consulting Group predicts that simply shifting production due to concerns about tense Sino US relations will reduce trade between the United States and China by $63 billion, or about 10% of bilateral trade volume, in 2031. According to a report on the website of American politicians, American companies have had to adopt a "China+1" strategy to avoid geopolitical risks. This will not only lead to a significant decrease in economic efficiency, but will also continuously erode the foundation of mutually beneficial and win-win bilateral economic and trade relations. If the world ultimately forms two parallel economic systems between China and the United States, it will seriously damage economic globalization and international economic recovery, becoming an unbearable burden for all countries.

Therefore, the US needs to adjust and change its narrow zero sum game thinking and practices in a timely manner, and return to the correct track of Sino US economic and trade cooperation.

One is to shift from strategic competition with China to practical cooperation. In the past few years, the United States has engaged in so-called "strategic competition" against China, bottomless suppression of China, and attempts to prevent China's economic development have not been realized, but have actually harmed its own economic interests. But at the same time, the Chinese economy has demonstrated full resilience and strong resilience. Further consultations and negotiations in the bilateral field to stabilize China US economic and trade relations are in the interests of both countries.

The second is to assume more global responsibilities. Against the backdrop of weak global recovery, lack of economic governance, climate crisis, and ongoing humanitarian crises, as the world's largest and second largest economies, China and the United States have a responsibility to strengthen economic and trade cooperation and provide more public goods for global economic stability. The door to China's cooperation is always open, and the United States needs to move towards China even more.

The third is to handle the Sino US economic and trade relations from a long-term perspective and historical dimension. The connotation of China US economic and trade relations is rich and complex, with both short-term interests and long-term strategic impacts. The two countries can not only engage in mutually beneficial cooperation in non competitive fields, but also engage in contact and cooperation in competitive fields. For example, in the so-called "small courtyard high wall" boundary consultation on technology, we can enhance our understanding in the field of trade and economic policy transparency and jointly find solutions to the problem. As long as China and the United States honestly and prudently consider and handle their relations from a long-term perspective, strategic height, and historical dimension, economic and trade will continue to play a role as a ballast for the relationship between the two countries.

In short, despite the ups and downs and challenges in China US relations, the breakthrough in bilateral trade in goods once again gives people confidence and hope. Taking this as an opportunity, China and the United States should work together to strengthen all-round cooperation, highlight the positive aspects of their economic and trade relations, fully utilize their common talents to contain the negative aspects, and make positive contributions to the development of healthy and stable Sino US trade relations.