General

On May 9th, the General Administration of Customs released statistical data on China's foreign trade imports and exports for the first four months of this year. According to customs data, in the first four months of this year, China's total import and export value was 13.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. Among them, exports reached 7.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6%; Import reached 5.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.02%; The trade surplus reached 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 56.7%. In April, China's imports and exports reached 3.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.9%. Among them, exports reached 2.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.8%; Import reached 1.41 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.8%; The trade surplus was 618.44 billion yuan, an increase of 96.5%.

Specifically, the proportion of general trade imports and exports in China has increased. According to customs data, in the first four months, China's general trade import and export reached 8.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5%, accounting for 65.4% of China's total foreign trade value, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year. During the same period, the import and export of processing trade reached 2.38 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.8%, accounting for 17.9%. In addition, China's import and export through bonded logistics amounted to 1.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.4%.

In the first four months, China's imports and exports to ASEAN and the European Union increased, while exports to the United States, Japan, and other countries decreased. According to customs data, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner in the first four months. The total trade value between China and ASEAN is 2.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.9%, accounting for 15.7% of China's total foreign trade value. The European Union is China's second largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 1.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.2%, accounting for 13.5%. The United States is China's third largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 1.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.2%, accounting for 11.2%. Japan is China's fourth largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 731.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6%, accounting for 5.5%. Over the same period, China's imports and exports to countries along the "the Belt and Road" totaled 4.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 16%.

At the same time, the proportion of imports and exports of private enterprises exceeds 50%. Customs data shows that in the first four months, private enterprises imported and exported 7.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.8%, accounting for 52.9% of China's total foreign trade value, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The import and export of state-owned enterprises reached 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.7%, accounting for 16.4% of China's total foreign trade value. During the same period, the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises reached 4.06 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.2%, accounting for 30.5% of China's total foreign trade value.

The exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor secret products have both increased. In the first four months, China's export of mechanical and electrical products reached 4.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.5%, accounting for 57.9% of the total export value. During the same period, the export of labor-intensive products reached 1.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8%, accounting for 17.1%. In addition, the import volume of iron ore, crude oil, and coal increased and decreased in the first four months, the import volume of natural gas decreased and increased, and the import volume and price of soybeans increased simultaneously.

Wang Jing, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that under a low base, China's exports achieved positive growth in April, but the growth rate of most product exports fell, and the significant decrease in export growth rate to ASEAN dragged down the overall growth rate of China's exports. From the perspective of product structure, the high prosperity of automobile exports has driven up the growth rate of mechanical and electrical product exports, while the growth rate of labor-intensive product exports has slowed down. In April, China's automobile exports increased both in quantity and price, with export amounts (denominated in US dollars, the same below) increasing by 195.7% year-on-year and export quantities increasing by 150% year-on-year. The high prosperity of automobile exports has led to a positive growth of 10.4% in the export of mechanical and electrical products, but the export of mobile phones and integrated circuits decreased by 12.8% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively, driving down the growth rate of mechanical and electrical exports by 0.85 and 0.56 percentage points. The export of labor-intensive products increased by 24.7% year-on-year, with bags, shoes and boots, and clothing increasing by 36.8%, 13.3%, and 14%, respectively, a decrease of 53.3, 19, and 17.9 percentage points compared to March. From the perspective of major trading partners, China's export growth rate to Europe, the United States, and Japan has improved, while its export growth rate to ASEAN has significantly declined. In April, the year-on-year growth rates of China's exports to the European Union, the United States, and Japan were 3.9%, -6.5%, and 11.5%, respectively, which increased by 0.5, 1.2, and 16.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Exports to ASEAN maintained positive growth, but the growth rate significantly decreased from 35.4% in March to 4.5%.

Wang Jing stated that unlike export-oriented economies such as South Korea and ASEAN countries, where exports continue to weaken, China's exports have achieved counter trend growth against the backdrop of weak external demand. The transformation and upgrading of export structure is the main supporting factor, and high-tech, high value-added, and green transformation led products represented by electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells have gradually become new driving forces for China's export growth. However, due to multiple factors, China's export growth rate will still be under pressure in the future. Firstly, international geopolitical conflicts continue, monetary policies in the US and European economies continue to tighten due to high inflation levels, increasing liquidity risks in the banking industry, and weak growth in major global economies, leading to continued weakness in international demand. Secondly, the backlog of export orders in the early stages is about to be released, gradually weakening the support for export growth. The new export order index rose in February and fell back, reaching 47.6% in April, falling into a contraction range. Future export orders will not be released The negative impact of foot may manifest. Thirdly, the high base in the next three months will put pressure on export readings Wang Jing said.

In addition, the weakening of import growth rate confirms that domestic demand is still insufficient. In Wang Jing's view, crude oil, steel, and mechanical and electrical equipment are the main drag on the weakening of imports. According to customs data, China's crude oil imports decreased by 28.5% year-on-year in April, an increase of 29.2 percentage points compared to March; Steel imports decreased by 31.2% year-on-year, an increase of 4.7 percentage points compared to March; The import of mechanical and electrical products decreased by 16.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to March. At present, China's economy and society have fully returned to normal operation, but the improvement in economic performance is mainly restorative, and it still takes time for the confidence of market entities to be restored. In the future, with the continued efforts of stable growth policies to improve efficiency, residents and enterprises' expectations will continue to improve, domestic demand will steadily rebound, and import growth rate is expected to improve.

Xu Hongcai, Deputy Director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association, believes that in the first four months of this year, China's foreign trade surplus has further expanded, exceeding many people's expectations. This indicates that the policies and measures introduced by relevant departments in China to promote stable scale and optimized structure of foreign trade have achieved good results, demonstrating the enormous resilience of China's industrial chain and the international competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry. The growth of general trade and the decrease in processing trade also reflect the accelerated transformation of China's foreign trade development mode, and the obvious optimization of its foreign trade structure. At present, China's imports and exports to ASEAN and countries related to the "the Belt and Road" are growing rapidly, its foreign trade surplus continues to increase, and its exports to the United States have declined. This' one increase and one decrease 'is also a manifestation of structural optimization. Private enterprises have always maintained their position as the largest operating entity, and new formats and models such as cross-border e-commerce and bonded overseas warehouses are also developing rapidly. These all indicate that my foreign trade has withstood severe tests and demonstrated great resilience.

Regarding the potential challenges facing the current foreign trade industry, Xu Hongcai stated that the decrease in import orders from developed economies has put some pressure on some foreign trade enterprises in China. In the future, China will continue to face challenges from external environmental changes. We need to turn pressure into driving force, promote the transformation of the development mode of foreign trade structure, increase technological content, further optimize the business environment, attract more market entities, unleash their potential, and enhance China's foreign trade competitiveness, "Xu Hongcai said.