General

On April 13th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The General Administration of Customs introduced the import and export situation in the first quarter and answered questions from reporters.

According to import and export data, the total import and export value of China's goods trade in the first quarter was 9.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The start was smooth and improving month by month. The performance of foreign trade imports and exports in March exceeded the consensus expectations of market institutions, and the "heat" of foreign trade is steadily increasing.

It is worth mentioning that in the first quarter, the "new three types" of electric passenger cars, lithium batteries, and solar cells had export records to more than 200 countries and regions around the world. Among them, exports to the top five markets of the European Union, the United States, ASEAN, South Korea, and the United Kingdom increased by 88.7%, 88.1%, 103.5%, 121.7%, and 118.2%, respectively, reflecting the effective improvement of China's export quality and reasonable growth in quantity, China has also made positive contributions to the global green and low-carbon transformation.

From high-frequency data, it can be seen that in April, high-frequency data on foreign trade shows a positive recovery trend in some areas of foreign trade imports and exports. However, the General Administration of Customs emphasized that achieving the goal of promoting stability and quality in foreign trade throughout the year and continuing to play the supporting role of imports and exports in the economy still requires arduous efforts.

Let's take a look at the key points of the press conference:

1. The first quarter of foreign trade import and export started steadily and improved month by month. According to customs import and export data, the total import and export value of China's goods trade in the first quarter was 9.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Among them, exports reached 5.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%.

2. From the perspective of entities, the number of foreign trade operators has steadily increased. In the first quarter, China had 457000 foreign trade enterprises with actual import and export performance, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Compared with the first quarter of last year, 25000 more enterprises carried out import and export business, and the "heat" of foreign trade steadily increased. Among them, the import and export growth rate of private enterprises with a large number and strong flexibility is higher than the overall, and the proportion of scale continues to maintain at over half.

3. According to the tracking of orders from over 3000 sample enterprises nationwide by the General Administration of Customs, the proportion of enterprises with an increase in the amount of new export orders has increased for three consecutive months month on month.

4. From a national and regional perspective, China's import and export growth to ASEAN, the largest trading partner, is 11.3 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate, accounting for 15.8% of the total import and export value. The total imports and exports to the European Union, the United States, Japan, and South Korea account for 35.6% of the total import and export value. The proportion of imports and exports to countries along the "the Belt and Road" increased by 3.5 percentage points.

5. In the first quarter, 7 of China's imports and exports to other RCEP member countries increased by over 10%, with imports and exports to Singapore, Laos, and Myanmar all growing by over 20%.

6. From the perspective of trade products, the exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products have both achieved growth, with year-on-year growth of 7.6% and 5.7%, respectively. Higher than the overall growth rate of exports include automobiles, batteries, plastic products, etc.

7. The total export growth of electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells' new three types' products in the first quarter was 66.9%, which increased the overall export growth rate by 2 percentage points, further enhancing the driving force compared to last year. The "New Three Samples" products have export records to over 200 countries and regions worldwide.

8. Import and export data shows that in the first quarter, China's total import value of goods trade increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while imports of energy products, consumer goods, and other goods increased. During the same period, China's imports of energy products from other RCEP member countries increased by 26.9%, with imports of energy products from ASEAN increasing by 45.7%. The performance of foreign trade import and export data in the first quarter exceeded expectations

The latest performance of foreign trade import and export data for the first quarter was significantly better than the consensus expectations of market institutions according to Wind statistics.

According to customs import and export data, the total import and export value of China's goods trade in the first quarter was 9.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Among them, exports reached 5.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%; Import reached 4.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. From the month of March, in US dollars, exports increased by 14.8% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 1.4% year-on-year. According to Wind statistics, the consensus expectation among market institutions is that in US dollars, in March, exports decreased by 5 percentage points year-on-year and imports decreased by 5.2 percentage points year-on-year.

Lv Daliang, spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis, described his views on the import and export of foreign trade in the first quarter as "starting steadily and improving month by month".

Analysis shows that the performance of foreign trade imports and exports in March exceeded expectations to a certain extent, which is the result of stabilizing the scale and optimizing the structure of foreign trade in the early stage, and is a reflection of the effect of "going out" to grab orders and expand the market in many places since the end of last year. A more prominent example is that Guangdong, as a major foreign trade province, first released first-quarter foreign trade import and export data, which showed that the first quarter's foreign trade import and export reached 1.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, of which exports reached 1.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, reversing the significant decline in growth rate in the first two months.

Data shows that in the first quarter, China had 457000 foreign trade enterprises with actual import and export performance, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Compared with the first quarter of last year, 25000 more enterprises carried out import and export business, and the "heat" of foreign trade steadily increased.

In the first quarter, the import and export growth rate of private enterprises with a large number and strong flexibility was higher than the overall growth rate, and the proportion of scale continued to maintain at over half. Moreover, in the first quarter, the import and export of private enterprises to countries along the "the Belt and Road" and other RCEP member countries drove China's import and export to the above countries and regions to increase by 14.9 and 9.7 percentage points. During the same period, the proportion of private enterprises in China's trade with the European Union and the United States exceeded half. In addition, the import of primary products and consumer goods by private enterprises is also expanding.

Lv Daliang stated that in the field of foreign trade, private enterprises have been the main force in China's foreign trade development for four consecutive years. Customs will provide better services for the development of foreign trade enterprises, including private enterprises.

According to import and export data, from the perspective of trade products, in the first quarter, the exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products both achieved growth, with year-on-year growth of 7.6% and 5.7%, respectively. The total export growth of electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells' new three types' products in the first quarter was 66.9%, which increased the overall export growth rate by 2 percentage points, further enhancing the driving force compared to last year. Regarding this, Lv Daliang introduced that in the first quarter, China's "new three samples" had export records to more than 200 countries and regions worldwide, with exports to the top five markets of the European Union, the United States, ASEAN, South Korea, and the United Kingdom increasing by 88.7%, 88.1%, 103.5%, 121.7%, and 118.2%, respectively, accounting for 71.6% of the total export value of the "new three samples".

Private enterprises, foreign-invested enterprises, state-owned enterprises and other business entities have achieved rapid growth in their exports. "Lv Daliang stated that as a new driving force for growth, the" new three types "products reflect the effective improvement of China's export quality and reasonable growth in quantity, and also make a positive contribution to China's global green and low-carbon transformation.

The growth rate of imports and exports to ASEAN is 11.3 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate

In the first quarter, China's imports and exports to ASEAN, the largest trading partner, amounted to 1.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, 11.3 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate, accounting for 15.8% of the total import and export value. The proportion of imports and exports to countries along the "the Belt and Road" increased by 3.5 percentage points. The total imports and exports to the European Union, the United States, Japan, and South Korea account for 35.6% of the total import and export value.

Lv Daliang stated that China's regional market has further expanded and developed, while also becoming more balanced. Since the beginning of this year, China's exports have remained stable and improving overall, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4% in the first quarter, maintaining positive growth for most of the top ten export markets. China has achieved expected results in continuously expanding its foreign trade market.

Recently, the National People's Congress proposed to find ways to stabilize exports to developed economies and guide enterprises to deeply explore developing country markets and regional markets such as ASEAN. The customs, in conjunction with their responsibilities, actively research and optimize policy measures such as assisting enterprises in relieving difficulties and promoting stable growth of foreign trade, "said Lv Daliang.

Bai Ming, a member of the Academic Degrees Committee of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters from securities firms in China that currently, the demand in developed economies is decreasing, coupled with trade protection and intensified trade friction, making it very difficult to stabilize exports to developed economies. The most important thing to stabilize this part of exports is to stabilize trade channels, stabilize customer trust and identification. We also need to make efforts in product research and development, provide better products, go out with new products, and communicate face-to-face with customers to reduce uncertainty in the trade process.

The weakening of external demand remains the most prominent difficulty in stabilizing the scale of foreign trade at present. In the latest issue of World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund lowered the forecast value of global economic growth by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8%. The report also points out that this year's economic slowdown is mainly concentrated in developed economies, especially the eurozone and the UK. These are all important export markets in China.

For the in-depth exploration of developing country markets and regional markets such as ASEAN, Bai Ming believes that it is necessary to not only tap into the demand potential of relevant markets, but also provide products that meet consumer demand, guide demand by supply, and tap into consumer demand potential.

According to reports, in the first quarter, China's export of intermediate products to ASEAN reached 531.08 billion yuan, an increase of 17.9%, accounting for 1.7 percentage points more than the same period last year.

High frequency data shows that foreign trade continues to improve

The foreign trade import and export data in March exceeded expectations significantly. In April, some high-frequency foreign trade data showed a positive recovery trend in some areas of foreign trade imports and exports. The latest Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose 33.15 points to 956.93 points, or 3.59%, for two consecutive weeks of upward trend, showing signs of stabilization. The Yiwu China Small Commodity Index (referred to as the Yiwu Index) also performed well. The Yiwu Index is published on a weekly and monthly basis. The latest weekly monitoring data released on April 10th shows that the weekly price index of small and medium-sized commodities for the week from April 3rd to 9th was 101.11 points, an increase of 0.42 points compared to the previous week. The export transaction price index, floor order transaction price index, and floor direct transaction price index all rose month on month.

Analysis suggests that these data can to some extent reflect that some foreign trade demand is actively recovering. Yi Mou, Chief Macroeconomist of Huatai Securities, stated that the Yiwu data has a good lead in the changes in domestic and foreign trade volume and prices of corresponding categories. Yiwu mainly exports small consumer goods, and effectively predicted the turning point of export decline last year. In addition to high-tech products, electrical equipment, automobiles, etc., the Yiwu Index leads China's corresponding categories in terms of export growth by 1-2 months.

However, Yi Mou also emphasized that Yiwu's export commodity categories cannot cover high-tech products, electrical equipment, complete vehicles, transportation equipment, etc., which have an increasing proportion of China's exports, and the external demand of these categories is still in the process of "bottoming out".

Major foreign trade provinces continue to recruit

Stabilizing foreign trade plays an important supporting role in stabilizing growth and employment, building a new development pattern, and promoting high-quality development. In 2023, it is a consensus that policies will continue to promote the stability, scale, and structure of foreign trade.

The executive meeting of the State Council held on April 7th also pointed out that we should play a good role as the main force for stabilizing foreign trade in major foreign trade provinces, encourage various regions to introduce supporting policies tailored to local conditions, and enhance policy synergy. In the first two months of this year, the total export value of traditional foreign trade provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang decreased year-on-year. Bai Ming stated that policies should make efforts to solve the most concentrated problems, starting from market competition and industrial structure, and targeting the most important problems. At the same time, there is a need for joint collaboration at the ministerial and local levels.

The local authorities are still intensifying their actions. Since the beginning of the year, Shandong has implemented over 130 exhibition projects through provincial and municipal linkage, helping enterprises seize orders and expand the market. In early March, the "Several Measures for Promoting Stable Growth of Foreign Trade in Guangdong Province" was released, focusing on the core concerns of enterprises, especially the issue of insufficient orders, and focusing on improving public services in eight areas, creating favorable conditions for enterprises to boost confidence and expand imports and exports.

Since April, policy measures have been intensively implemented in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and other regions. Jiangsu will research and deploy the key work arrangements for promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade in the province in 2022, and discuss the "Implementation Plan for the Pilot Work of Jiangsu Province's Integration of Domestic and Foreign Trade (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)". Shanghai has formulated and formed the "Several Policy Measures for Promoting the Stable Scale and Quality of Foreign Trade in Shanghai" and "Several Measures for Shanghai to Increase the Attraction and Utilization of Foreign Investment", and introduced 41 measures to continue promoting the high-quality development of foreign trade and foreign investment. The Zhejiang Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau, in conjunction with the Provincial Department of Commerce, guided the Zhejiang Banking Association to hold the 2023 Work Conference of the Foreign Trade Finance Working Group and support the "Thousand Groups and Ten Thousand Enterprises" financial advisory service team, and released the accompanying financial advisory service plan. This weekend, the offline exhibition of the "China's First Exhibition" Canton Fair will resume its grand opening. This is a special and important resumption of offline exhibitions after the implementation of the "Class B and Class B Management" policy for epidemic prevention and control.

When discussing his views on the trend of foreign trade in the second quarter, Lv Daliang stated that the current external environment is still severe and complex, and the development of global trade will still be affected by multiple factors, with the trade prospects still under pressure; Especially, factors such as weak external demand and geopolitical factors will bring greater challenges to China's foreign trade development. To achieve the goal of promoting stability and improving quality in foreign trade throughout the year and continue to play the supporting role of imports and exports in the economy, arduous efforts still need to be made.