General

Recently, the latest import and export data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of Vietnam showed that Vietnam's exports in April decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, to 27.5 billion US dollars; Imports decreased by 20.5% year-on-year to $26 billion.

Recently, the Vietnamese Bureau of Statistics released first-quarter data showing that the actual gross domestic product (GDP) from January to March 2023 increased by 3.32% compared to the same period last year.

The growth rate has dropped to a new low since January March 2020 (3.21%). Although personal consumption tends to recover, exports that drive the economy have decreased by more than 10% compared to the same period last year, thereby affecting GDP.

Import and export data shows that Vietnam's export volume from January to March 2023 decreased by 11.9% year-on-year. From the perspective of main categories, the largest export volume of telephones and related components decreased by 15.0% year-on-year, and the monthly export volume in March significantly decreased by 41.9% year-on-year.

The resistance faced by the Vietnamese economy in the first quarter of 2023 is largely attributed to the decline in exports caused by the international environment.

Vietnamese news agency quoted Prime Minister Pham Myung sung as saying that Vietnam is facing more difficulties than opportunities due to the impact of global economic deterioration. Public data shows that Vietnam's exports account for about 80% of the overall GDP, and once exports are unfavorable, economic growth will inevitably be affected.

42900 companies closed in Vietnam in the first quarter

According to import and export data, Vietnam's manufacturing Purchasing Managers'Index (PMI) in April 2023 only reached 46.7 points, lower than 47.7 points in March 2023.

This is the second consecutive month that Vietnam's manufacturing PMI has fallen below 50 points, reflecting a contraction in manufacturing activity. It is worth noting that the data shows a fifth decline in business conditions in the past six months, which is the largest decline since the beginning of the year.

Companies surveyed by S&P globally say it is difficult to find new orders in a situation of weak demand.

However, the S&P global report shows that corporate sentiment is optimistic and it is expected that the current weak demand situation will only be temporary, and a recovery will occur next year. Nevertheless, the optimism of enterprises is still at its lowest level since the beginning of this year.

Affected by the sluggish consumption in the European and American markets, Vietnam's imports and exports have overall declined, and some foreign factories have also experienced layoffs and shutdowns. There is indeed an optimistic sentiment in the market.

According to import and export data, there were 42900 closed enterprises nationwide in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%; About 12800 enterprises are suspended for dissolution, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; 4600 companies have completed dissolution, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%.

The economic downturn has also made the local people feel a chill. Pei Dexing, who has worked at a bank in Hanoi for nearly 8 years, told the media that in the past two months, she has not received any bonuses, and her husband's salary as a supervisor at a foreign trade company has decreased by half. "Suddenly, I feel a lot more pressure on my family life and I dare not buy more cosmetics. Pei Dexing also stated that her sister works at a Korean factory in Beining Province and is now unemployed due to the factory's shutdown last month. picture

South Korea's export volume in April decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, and the era of large-scale trade surplus with China has come to an end. The South Korean economy, which regards exports as its "business card," is also facing severe challenges.

On May 1st, data released by the South Korean Ministry of Industry, Commerce, and Resources showed that South Korea's export volume in April decreased by 14.2% year-on-year to $49.6 billion, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline, mainly due to the continued weakness in chip demand caused by the global economic slowdown.

Due to declining demand and falling prices, South Korea's main export product, semiconductor exports, decreased by 41% year-on-year in April.

In April, South Korea's exports to China decreased by 26.5%, marking the 11th consecutive month of decline.

According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korea's Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the economy and Minister of Planning and Finance, Qiu Qinghao, met with South Korean special reporters in New York, USA on April 10th local time. He expressed that the era of large-scale trade surplus between South Korea and China has come to an end regarding the impact of economic recovery on South Korea after China enters a new stage of epidemic prevention and control.

According to the import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, South Korea's exports to Chinese Mainland (China's imports from South Korea) in the first quarter of this year were 38.2 billion US dollars, down 28.2% from the same period last year.

From the perspective of export scale to China, South Korea ranked second in terms of export scale last year, but dropped to fifth in the first quarter of this year.

China's foreign trade exports are also under pressure

Everyone has also noticed that the foreign trade of neighboring countries has recently decreased significantly, with exports from countries such as Vietnam, South Korea, Thailand, Cambodia, and Sri Lanka all showing varying degrees of decline. For our country, from October last year to February this year, foreign trade exports showed negative growth in US dollars.

On April 23rd, at the State Council Policy Regular Briefing held by the State Council Information Office, Wang Shouwen, the International Trade Negotiation Representative and Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce, stated at the meeting that in the first quarter, although China's foreign trade imports and exports achieved a 4.8% growth and achieved "stable opening". However, we must see that China's foreign trade situation is still complex and severe, facing many difficulties and challenges. picture

From the perspective of external environment, the uncertainty of external demand remains the biggest constraint. The Ministry of Commerce will closely cooperate with various regions and departments, and foreign trade enterprises will also take a series of measures to stabilize orders and expand the market.

On April 25th, the State Council issued 18 articles on stabilizing foreign trade, including strengthening trade promotion and expanding markets, stabilizing and expanding the import and export scale of key products, increasing fiscal and financial support, accelerating innovative development of foreign trade, and optimizing the environment for foreign trade development. picture

Official data shows that China's manufacturing PMI in April was 49.2, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, below the withering line of 50. Among them, the PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises was 49.3%, 49.2%, and 49.0%, respectively, entering a contraction range as a whole.

The changes in the PMI sub index of the manufacturing industry in April showed that the expansion of market demand has declined, enterprise production has stabilized and slowed down, and the operating situation has contracted. The economic recovery momentum still needs to be consolidated.

Wen Tao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, said that demand has decreased month on month, due to a relatively high base of sustained recovery in the past few months. From January to March, market demand continued to rise rapidly, overdrawing some of the market demand and pushing up the base.

Secondly, exports have tightened somewhat. Internationally, long-term high inflation, rising interest rates, and various uncertainties have increased, leading to a tightening of manufacturing exports.

In April, the International Monetary Fund lowered the global economic growth rate from 2.9% to 2.8%, believing that the slowdown in developed country economies would be very significant.

At the same time, the World Trade Organization released a report in early April predicting that global trade in goods will increase by 1.7% in 2023, higher than the 1% predicted in October last year. In short, it's enough to fight for orders with all your might, and taking the initiative is the only way to have a chance