General

According to import and export data, in US dollars, China's exports increased by 8.5% year-on-year in April and 14.8% year-on-year in March; Import and export data shows that in April, imports fell by 7.9% year-on-year, while in March, they fell by 1.4% year-on-year; The trade surplus in April was $90.21 billion, compared to $88.19 billion in March.

1. Exports: Continued positive growth year-on-year, but momentum began to weaken

(1) The global economy has not improved yet, and the downward trend of external demand may be difficult to reverse. Import and export data shows that JPMorgan Chase's global manufacturing PMI in April was 49.6%, unchanged from March, and the negative growth rate of South Korean exports has once again deepened. Against the backdrop of major central banks in Europe and America continuously raising interest rates, there may be little room for further improvement in the current global economy.

(2) Differentiate the trend of export growth in emerging markets and developed countries. From a country by country perspective, China's export growth rate to major countries/regions has differentiated in April. Marginal improvement in export growth rate for developed countries, while a slight decline in export growth rate for emerging market countries/regions. From the perspective of external demand, the manufacturing PMI of the above-mentioned countries/regions increased and decreased in April, but the manufacturing PMI of major global economic systems is mostly in the contraction range.

(3) The main export products still have a certain degree of resilience, and the number of automotive related products continues to increase. From a product perspective: The export growth rate of high-tech products, mobile phones, and other goods has increased, while the export growth rate of toys, finished oil, and other goods has decreased. Import and export data shows that overall, there is still some resilience in the categories of goods exported in April. In addition, the export of automotive related products continued to increase significantly in April, becoming a major support for exports, and it is expected to continue to maintain a high growth rate in the future.

2. Import: Expanding domestic demand or still taking time

Import and export data shows that the year-on-year decrease in imports in April continued to expand compared to March. In terms of absolute import amount, there has also been a certain degree of decline in imports compared to the previous month, indicating that it still takes time for China to expand domestic demand. In the medium to long term, the repair of imports may still take time. At the April Politburo meeting, it was pointed out that "the current improvement in China's economic performance is mainly restorative, with weak endogenous momentum and insufficient demand." Subsequent policies are expected to take advantage of the situation and promote high-quality economic development, and domestic demand may continue to recover at that time.

3. Subsequent exports may still face some pressure, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic either

The export growth in April may continue to release due to the backlog of orders, and the subsequent export growth rate may still face downward pressure. From April data, it can be seen that the release of backlog orders may still be ongoing, coupled with the base effect, which has to some extent driven positive year-on-year growth in exports. However, based on the month on month changes in the value of major export commodities, the subsequent momentum of some orders may already be insufficient. If we refer to the export performance from June to August 2022, there may be a further decline in exports in May, and the subsequent export growth rate may face downward pressure.

2. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about subsequent exports. Although China's exports are currently dragged down by the weakening momentum of economic growth in Europe and the United States, the product structure and regional distribution of China's exports have also changed to a certain extent. The contribution of new three kinds of products to China's exports is rising, and the proportion of countries along the "the Belt and Road", ASEAN and other countries in China's exports is rising, which helps to reduce the pressure of foreign demand decline caused by the economic downturn in Europe and the United States. In addition, personal income in the United States increased to a certain extent in the first quarter, and coupled with the ongoing efforts of European new energy policies, China's relevant industrial chains may still benefit. Therefore, overall, although there is significant downward pressure on China's exports, with the implementation of stable foreign trade policies and the gradual implementation of Chinese enterprises' export order grabbing, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the overall export situation for the whole year.