General

On April 14th, multiple foreign media reported that China's import and export data for March showed an "unexpected improvement". According to a report on the website of the Wall Street Journal on April 13th, China's General Administration of Customs released import and export data on Thursday. In US dollars, exports unexpectedly increased by 14.8% in March this year, ending four consecutive declines. The year-on-year decline in imports narrowed significantly to 1.4%, achieving a trade surplus of 88.19 billion US dollars, significantly better than market expectations.

At this point, China's continuous negative growth in exports since October last year has finally turned positive and achieved double-digit high growth in one fell swoop.

Import and export data shows that from January to February this year, China's exports decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, imports decreased by 10.2%, and a trade surplus of 116.88 billion US dollars.

In October last year, China's exports unexpectedly decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while imports also decreased by 0.7%. Afterwards, the decline further expanded in November and December.

The Wall Street Journal's previous survey of economists showed that China's exports are expected to decline by 7% year-on-year in March, imports by 5%, and a trade surplus of 41 billion US dollars.

The General Administration of Customs of China has also simultaneously released data priced in RMB. In RMB terms, China's exports increased by 23.4% year-on-year in March, while imports increased by 6.1%, achieving a trade surplus of 601.1 billion RMB.

According to Reuters on April 13th, China's exports unexpectedly increased significantly in March, driven by strong shipments of solar products, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries.

At the same time, the decline in imports was also better than expected. Economists point out that the accelerated growth in imports of agricultural products, especially soybeans, provides some support for improving import data.

These import and export data have breathed a sigh of relief to investors worried about China's economic situation, but analysts point out that as demand from other major economies declines, the sustainability of this trend is still uncertain.

Zhang Zhiwei, Chief Economist of Baoyin Asset Management Co., Ltd., said, "China's export growth rate surged in March. This is unexpected in the market

Lu Daliang, a spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs of China, attributed this growth to strong demand for electric passenger cars, lithium batteries, and solar cells.

The spokesperson told the media at a press conference on Thursday that the current weakening of external demand caused by high global inflation and weak growth in major economies has had a direct impact on China's foreign trade. At the same time, risks such as protectionism and geopolitics have further increased the instability, uncertainty, and unpredictability of the global economy, and the development of foreign trade will face greater difficulties and challenges.

Last week's executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that efforts should be made to stabilize exports to developed economies and guide enterprises to deeply explore developing country markets and regional markets such as ASEAN.

On April 13th, Bloomberg News reported on its website that the unexpected growth in China's exports is a sign of economic recovery.

The report suggests that with the improvement of demand in most Asian countries and Europe, as well as the resumption of production in Chinese factories, China's exports unexpectedly increased in March, boosting the economic outlook and indicating that global growth may be better than expected.

According to import and export data, in March, China's exports in US dollars grew 14.8% year on year, partly because of the increase in shipments to Southeast Asian countries and the rebound in demand from South Korea and Europe. Economists had previously predicted a decrease of over 7%, an unexpectedly strong result that was the biggest deviation from expectations since at least 2018.

Economists say that unexpectedly optimistic data indicates that the current situation of external demand is better than expected.

Michel Ram, an economist at Societe Generale in France, said: "This is indeed very surprising. Today's data seems to indicate that the slowdown in external demand is not as worrying as previously thought

Ding Shuang, chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank in Greater China and North Asia, said: "The export data reflects a quite good stage in the business cycle."

According to the statistics, the automobile export volume in the first quarter grew fastest, with a year-on-year surge of 82% in US dollars. This is partly due to the authorities' vigorous development of electric vehicles in recent years.