General

On April 18th, the State Council Office held a regular press conference on the first quarter's economic data. Import and export data shows that in the first quarter, China's total import and export of goods reached 9887.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. According to import and export data, exports reached 5648.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4%. Is this strong momentum sustainable as the import and export data for the first quarter exceeded expectations?

Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, stated that China's imports and exports have maintained sustained growth since the beginning of this year. Building on last year's high base, it is very difficult to achieve such growth under the conditions of a slowdown in world economic growth and significant external uncertainty.

From the next stage, China's import and export growth still faces certain pressures, mainly manifested in the relatively weak global economic growth. According to the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund, global growth is expected to be 2.8% in 2023, a significant decrease from last year's growth rate. According to the latest forecast of the WTO, the annual trade volume growth is approximately 1.7%, which is also a decrease from last year. So, the growth of external demand is increasing the pressure on exports. Secondly, the external uncertainty is still large. Since this year, the inflation level in the United States and Europe has been relatively high, and monetary policies have been tightened continuously. Recently, the liquidity crisis of some banks in the United States and Europe has been exposed, which has exacerbated the instability of economic operation. At the same time, geopolitical risks still exist, and the rise of unilateralism protectionism has exacerbated the instability and uncertainty of global economic and trade growth.

He stated that despite facing these pressures and challenges, China's foreign trade is characterized by strong resilience and vitality. Therefore, under the influence of various policies to stabilize foreign trade, it is expected to achieve the goal of promoting stability and improving quality throughout the year. Firstly, China's industrial system is relatively complete, with strong market supply capacity and the ability to adapt to changes in external demand. Secondly, China insists on expanding its opening up to the outside world and continuously expanding the space for foreign trade. According to the import and export data, China's import and export to countries along the "the Belt and Road" increased by 16.8% in the first quarter, and to other RCEP member countries, the import and export increased by 7.3%, of which the export grew by 20.2%.

Finally, the growth of new driving forces in China's foreign trade is gradually showing its role in supporting foreign trade growth. At a recent press conference of the General Administration of Customs, it was also mentioned that import and export data showed that China's exports of lithium batteries and solar cells for electric passenger vehicles increased by 66.9% in the first quarter, and new forms of foreign trade such as cross-border e-commerce also grew relatively fast. Overall, the policy of stabilizing foreign trade in the next stage will continue to show effectiveness, which is conducive to achieving the goal of promoting stability and quality in foreign trade throughout the year