General

The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs recently released the mid year update report of the World Economic Situation and Outlook 2023, which raised the world economic growth forecast in 2023 to 2.3% from 1.9% predicted at the beginning of the year, and lowered the growth forecast in 2024 from 2.7% to 2.5%.

According to the Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation report, the interviewed experts stated that the current world economic recovery still faces severe challenges, with multiple challenges and crises intertwined and overlapping. All parties need to work together to address and accelerate the recovery of the world economy.

Opportunities and challenges coexist

The report believes that the world economic situation in 2023 is better than previously predicted: developed economies will grow by 1.0% in 2023, higher than the 0.4% predicted at the beginning of the year; Developing economies will grow by 4.1%, slightly higher than the 3.9% forecast at the beginning of the year; The least developed economies will grow by 4.1%, which is lower than the 4.4% predicted at the beginning of the year and far below the 7% annual growth rate required to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, as reported by Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation.

The report raised China's economic growth forecast for 2023 from 4.8% at the beginning of the year to 5.3%, and raised the economic growth expectations for the United States and the European Union from 0.4% and 0.2% to 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively. Among other major economies, Japan's economic growth forecast for 2023 is lower than the forecast at the beginning of the year; The economies of the UK and Russia will experience contraction, but the magnitude of the contraction is better than predicted at the beginning of the year; The expected economic growth of Brazil is slightly higher than the forecast at the beginning of the year.

Professor Li Chunding from the School of Economics and Management at China Agricultural University told International Business Daily that the current global economic growth situation contains risks in opportunities, and is expected to gradually emerge from inflation and downturn. The recovery and growth will accelerate in the second half of the year. In terms of opportunities, the easing of global inflation and the gradual relaxation of monetary tightening policies in developed countries have injected new impetus into the recovery of the world economy; The world economy will enter a period of accelerated recovery after the epidemic, promoting the growth of the world economy; In addition, the new technological revolution triggered by digital technology and artificial intelligence will become an important driving force for the accelerated development of the world economy. In terms of risks, inflation and monetary tightening policies lead to sluggish global demand and sluggish economic growth, while also potentially triggering financial crises in developed countries and debt risks in developing countries. In addition, the partial interruption of the global value chain and production chain caused by the epidemic has affected international division of labor and global trade and investment to a certain extent, and needs to be gradually restored. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

Researcher Zhou Mi from the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce stated in an interview with the International Business Daily that currently, the outlook for world economic growth is more optimistic than at the beginning of the year. This optimism is largely due to the increased momentum of the Chinese economy. With the recovery of China's economy, countries with closer economic and trade relations with China generally have stronger growth expectations. This not only comes from the support of China's production and supply for the economic development of these countries, but also from the strong attraction of China's huge market for their product exports.

According to Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year. In April, China's economy continued to recover and show a positive trend, with the total import and export of goods increasing by 8.9% year-on-year, and the trade structure continued to be optimized.

However, the global economic recovery still faces the real and potential threat of trade protectionism, which seriously affects the demand for international trade recovery and is not conducive to the overall recovery of the world economy, "Zhou Mi said.

Jointly driving recovery

The current world's unprecedented major changes are accelerating their evolution, and the world economy is facing both the urgent need for post pandemic recovery and the interweaving of multiple challenges and crises. The report also points out that due to factors such as the delay of the epidemic, the crisis in Ukraine, climate change, and changes in the macroeconomic situation, the world economy is likely to enter a long-term stage of low growth.

Zhou Mi stated that to address challenges and promote recovery, all parties should work together to establish mutual connections, promote rule-based economic and trade cooperation, fully unleash the momentum of economic development, and promote innovative development. So, in the face of pressure, we should not seek beggar thy neighbor or suppress each other. This year, the world economy will have further growth momentum, which is very important for all parties to unleash their own development potential and respond to environmental changes. Huacheng Import and Export Data Observation Report.

On the contrary, it may have a serious impact on the recovery of the world economy, have a significant impact on small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals, and also increase the risk of unstable economic development and regional development imbalance.

Li Chunding also stated that global economic recovery and development require joint efforts from all countries to control potential risks and enhance growth momentum. Firstly, we need to continuously promote trade and investment liberalization. At the multilateral level, we should promote WTO reform and possible trade and investment liberalization. At the regional level, we should promote the construction of high-level and high standard free trade zones, and bilateral economic and trade cooperation should also be continuously strengthened. Secondly, we need to deepen global economic governance cooperation, maintain world economic stability, and promote global trade and investment cooperation to promote common development of the global economy. Once again, encourage technological innovation and progress, share the fruits of technological progress, and cultivate new growth points for the world economy. In addition, we will collaborate to address important issues in the current world economic development, including inflation and financial risks, climate change, hunger and inequality, and promote common development of the world economy.