General

Since the beginning of this year, Suzhou, the largest city in Jiangsu's economy, has experienced weak imports and exports. According to import and export data released by the Suzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics, from January to April, the total import and export value of Suzhou's foreign trade was RMB 729.571 billion, a decrease of 9.8%. Import and export data shows that exports decreased by 2.4% and imports decreased by 19.9%. Compared to the first quarter, although the decline in Suzhou's foreign trade in the first four months has significantly narrowed, the downward trend has not yet been fully reversed.

For the export-oriented economy city of Suzhou, this difficult situation can be said to be rare for many years. The decline in foreign trade has undoubtedly affected the overall economic recovery of Suzhou. According to import and export data released by the Provincial Bureau of Statistics, although Suzhou's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter still ranked first in the province, its growth rate was only 1.9%, ranking last among the 13 districts and cities in the province. For a long time, Suzhou has been the economic leader of our province, and its recovery speed has a significant impact and significance on the economic recovery of the province.

Why has Suzhou's import and export declined this year, as its foreign trade volume has been growing rapidly for many years above its high level? What are the trends of "up" while the numbers are "down"? What structural changes exist behind it?

Behind the 'descent'

Jiang Zhaoyi, Vice President of Jiangsu Financial Research Institute and Associate Researcher of Jiangsu Academy of Social Sciences, believes that based on the analysis of Suzhou's foreign trade data, on the one hand, Suzhou's foreign trade is concentrated in traditional export destinations such as the United States, the European Union, Japan, and ASEAN. Currently, global inflation is high, and traditional export countries and regions have weakened foreign demand, which is the main reason for the decline of Suzhou's foreign trade. The leading export industry in Suzhou is the electronic information industry, which is the first industry in Suzhou to exceed one trillion yuan in scale. Last year, the output value reached 1.28 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the city's industrial output value. Import and export data show that since this year, sales of consumer electronics in the global market have declined, which has greatly affected manufacturing enterprises. The new energy industry is the industry with a significant increase in export growth this year, but this is not Suzhou's strong point. It can be predicted that the decline in sales of consumer electronics will continue. For Suzhou, an important export city of electronic products, the contraction of exports in this field will still have a greater negative impact on its economic growth.

There are also new positive trends in the midst of difficulties. According to data from the Suzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics, from January to April this year, the output value of Suzhou's electronic information industry increased by 5.1% year-on-year, contributing 38.1% to the growth of industries above designated size; The added value of industries above designated size in the city increased by 6.1% year-on-year, an increase of 8.8 percentage points compared to the previous three months, and the growth rate has significantly rebounded. This latest figure indirectly indicates that the industrial economic chassis of Suzhou, led by the electronic information industry, has gradually stabilized, and export orders are accelerating their recovery.

Jiang Zhaoyi analyzed that from the national and provincial import and export situation, it can be found that import and export data shows that the industries that supported China's import and export in the first quarter were mainly electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells. The total export growth of the three major industries was 66.9%, with a year-on-year increase of over 100 billion yuan, becoming the main force driving up the total import and export volume. From the situation in our province, in the first quarter, the province exported key new energy products such as solar cells, lithium-ion batteries, and electric passenger cars, totaling 26.09 billion yuan, 23.64 billion yuan, and 1.53 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 2.4%, 64.9%, and 324.7%, respectively. Although Suzhou's new energy related industries have a certain foundation, their comprehensive strength is not yet strong, making it difficult to share the huge dividends brought by the "wind".

Hou Xiangpeng, a researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Jiangsu Academy of Social Sciences, believes that when observing the performance of Suzhou's foreign trade, it is necessary to fully consider that Suzhou, as the "strongest prefecture level city" in the country, is undergoing profound structural adjustment. If international market fluctuations are external and explicit factors that affect Suzhou's foreign trade performance, changes in industrial and trade structures are internal and deep-seated factors that affect Suzhou's foreign trade. It is against this backdrop that Suzhou has started to increase its emphasis on new energy vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles, aiming to achieve a trillion level scale.

The Change of 'Ascension'

Jiang Zhaoyi's analysis pointed out that while seeing a "decline" in Suzhou's foreign trade, we also need to see a "rise" in Suzhou's foreign trade.

The increasing output of advanced manufacturing industry is contributing and will continue to contribute to a new round of recovery in Suzhou's foreign trade exports. From January to April, the output of high-tech products such as photovoltaic cells, smart phones, elevators and optical instrument in Suzhou maintained a rapid growth, with year-on-year growth of 62.1%, 77.1%, 32.8% and 32.2% respectively.

Taking Zhangjiagang City under Suzhou as an example, its total foreign trade volume in the first quarter has increased from the scale of 68.89 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year, making it the second highest value in history during the same period. Especially in March, Zhangjiagang's exports have taken the lead in turning positive year-on-year, increasing by 3%, mainly relying on Zhangjiagang's "new momentum". The export of solar cells in the city has grown by over 200% for four consecutive months, with a cumulative increase of 3.7 times in the first quarter. It is worth mentioning that the export of new energy vehicles in Zhangjiagang has increased by 9.5 times year-on-year, and is expected to become a new growth pole for future exports.

On the other hand, Suzhou's investment in emerging industries is facing challenges and the pace of industrial structure transformation is accelerating. According to data released by the Suzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the investment growth rate of major projects completed in the city was strong in the first quarter. Among major provincial industrial projects, the investment completion rates for strategic emerging industries and modern service industries are 29.8% and 43.9%, respectively; Among the key municipal industrial projects, the investment completion rates for new materials, electronic information, new energy vehicles, and intelligent vehicles are 38.1%, 30.4%, and 28.3%, respectively. The new infrastructure sector, mainly focused on the new generation of information infrastructure, saw a doubling of the city's investment completion in the first quarter compared to the same period last year. The continuous increase in investment intensity during the downturn will undoubtedly create stronger innovation momentum, laying a solid foundation for Suzhou's future foreign trade recovery and rapid industrial economic growth, and further enhancing the economic resilience of the "strongest prefecture level city".

Hou Xiangpeng's view is that Suzhou has never lacked the courage and determination to actively adjust its industrial structure. In recent years, the city has been continuously "self surpassing", and the intelligent upgrading of the export leading industry, electronic information industry, has accelerated. The "No.1 industry" of biopharmaceuticals that has been fully developed has achieved its initial fruits - breakthroughs have been made in Xinda Bio's innovative drugs. At the same time, the strong magnetic field effect of foreign investment in Suzhou remains strong, and Kunshan City achieved a year-on-year increase of 170.1% in actual use of foreign investment in the first quarter. Among them, the actual use of foreign investment in high-tech industries has increased by as much as 315% year-on-year, which cannot be described as excessive. Overall, the strong manufacturing strength, strong attraction to domestic and foreign capital and innovation factors, and the strategic determination of Suzhou's innovation transformation make us have no reason to lack confidence in Suzhou. After the baptism of structural adjustment, it is believed that Suzhou's foreign trade competitiveness will further enhance.

Jiang Zhaoyi's view on the future rebound trend of Suzhou's foreign trade is that its export leading industry - the electronic information industry itself has certain cyclical fluctuations, and it is necessary to maintain composure and see the new opportunities that will come after the fluctuations. At the same time, Suzhou should accelerate the improvement of the intelligence level of traditional advantageous industries, strengthen emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, strive to create more new export growth points, and explore new markets.