General

On May 31st, the World Trade Organization released a report stating that global trade in goods remained sluggish in the first quarter of 2023, and this trend may improve in the second quarter.

The latest issue of the "Goods Trade Barometer" released by the World Trade Organization shows that the global goods trade prosperity index is 95.6, lower than the benchmark of 100, but slightly higher than the 92.2 released in March this year.

Among the various component indices, the automotive product index is 110.8, which continues to remain stable above the trend level; The export order index is 102.7, slightly higher than the trend level; The raw material index is 99.0. In addition, the container transportation index, air freight index, and electronic component index continue to perform weakly, all below trend levels. The report suggests that both positive and negative indicators are mixed, which increases the difficulty of predicting short-term trade prospects.

The report suggests that recent export orders have rebounded, leading to an increase in demand for goods in the second quarter of 2023. The World Trade Organization's previous prediction that global trade in goods will increase by 1.7% in 2023 is expected to be realized.

According to the compilation rules of the Global Goods Trade Prosperity Index, a value of 100 is its benchmark. If a certain index is 100, it means that the growth of global trade in goods is in line with medium-term trend expectations. An index greater than 100 indicates a higher than expected growth in global trade in goods during the quarter, while the opposite indicates a lower than expected growth in global trade in goods.

The World Trade Organization first released the Global Trade Prosperity Index in July 2016. By collecting trade statistics from major economies, it provides early signals on the short-term development trend of world trade and provides more timely international trade information for trade policy makers and the business community.