General

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on the 7th, China's total import and export value in May was 3.45 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a significant decrease in growth rate from April's 8.9%. Customs data shows that exports decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.3% year-on-year. In US dollars, China's total import and export value decreased by 6.2% year-on-year in May.

The total trade value between China and Europe increased by 3.6% year-on-year in the first five months

According to customs data, from January to May this year, ASEAN continued to be China's largest trading partner, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% in the total trade value between China and ASEAN, with China's exports to ASEAN increasing by 16.4%.

The European Union is China's second largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.28 trillion yuan between China and Europe, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year, accounting for 13.6% of China's total foreign trade value. Among them, exports to the European Union reached 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.4%; Imports from the European Union reached 80.04 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8%; The trade surplus with the European Union reached 679.09 billion yuan, narrowing by 1.3%.

The United States is China's third largest trading partner, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% in the total trade value between China and the United States, with China's exports to the United States decreasing by 8.5%. Japan is China's fourth largest trading partner, and the total trade value between China and Japan has decreased by 3.5%.

The "New Three Kinds" are becoming an important support for China's exports

Customs data shows that in May, the year-on-year growth rate of 0.5% of China's total import and export value significantly decreased from 8.9% in April, and exports even decreased by 0.8% compared to the same period last year. However, analysts believe that a sharp drop in data does not necessarily mean that China's foreign trade competitiveness has weakened.

The sharp decline in foreign trade growth rate is related to the high base in the same period last year. Last May, China's import and export growth rate reached 9.6%.

The international market is also one of the reasons for the "sudden warmth returning to cold". Although the World Trade Organization recently released the "Barometer of Goods Trade" report, which raised the global goods trade prosperity index, believing that the global goods trade situation may improve in the second quarter, based on data from South Korea, which is known as the "canary" of the global economy, it is difficult to be optimistic about global trade at the moment.

Customs data shows that South Korean exports decreased by 15.2% year-on-year in May, while imports decreased by 14%. This reflects that under the influence of factors such as high inflation levels and the prolonged escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, the global economic recovery is still faltering, and trade growth is also hindered as a result.

Analysts believe that considering the global economic and trade situation, China's current foreign trade performance is already stable.

From the perspective of import and export, on the one hand, the export of key markets and advantageous products remains resilient. In the first five months, China's exports to ASEAN, the largest trading partner, increased by 16.4% year-on-year, while exports to the EU, the second largest trading partner, increased by 2.4% year-on-year, both significantly higher than the overall level of China's exports during the same period.

According to official data, China's automobile exports in the first five months were 266.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.1%; The export of labor-intensive products reached 1.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The "new three types" of electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells are becoming important support for China's exports.

On the other hand, imports have steadily increased. Customs data shows that in the first five months, China's imports increased by 0.5% year-on-year, and in May, imports increased by 2.3% year-on-year. This indicates that with the accelerated recovery of the domestic economy, imports are also steadily expanding.

Private enterprises account for 52.8% of China's total foreign trade value

From the perspective of market entities, the import and export of Chinese private enterprises reached 8.86 trillion yuan in the first five months, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, accounting for 52.8% of China's total foreign trade value. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of private enterprise exports reached 16.2%.

Private enterprises have always been known for their keen market sense and flexible response. The sustained growth of imports and exports by private enterprises reflects the further strengthening of China's foreign trade resilience.

Some analysts also pointed out that the high growth of China's foreign trade in April was not the norm, and measuring the performance of May's foreign trade based on April data would be biased. Against the backdrop of overall global trade downturn, we should have reasonable expectations for the future trend of China's foreign trade.

Citigroup's Chief Economist for Greater China, Yu Xiangrong, stated that there were many one-time factors behind China's import and export growth rate of 8.9% in April. For example, under the impact of the epidemic in the second half of last year, some orders were not delivered, and there was a "rush" effect after the Spring Festival this year.

Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicts that considering the gradual release of official policies to stabilize foreign trade, China's foreign trade is expected to achieve a growth rate of 2% in US dollars this year, which is already a good achievement.