General

After returning from the Canton Fair, our confidence has increased compared to the beginning of the year. After receiving orders, the factory has become lively. But looking at the latest import and export data, it's actually cool? "In the past two days, foreign trade enterprises and Yongjin Jun chatted.

The "cold" of data and the "hot" of body sensation actually have a way behind them.

Why is the national data declining?

According to import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs, in May this year, in US dollars, China's imports and exports, exports, and imports all decreased year-on-year.

Import and export reached 50.119 billion US dollars, a decrease of 6.2%. According to import and export data, exports reached 283.5 billion US dollars, a decrease of 7.5%; Imports amounted to $217.69 billion, a decrease of 4.5%.

Where does the descent come from? The main reason is the change in external demand.

As we enter 2023, the global economic and trade situation has become extremely severe, and downward pressure has significantly increased. The main contradiction in China's foreign trade sector has shifted from supply chain obstruction and insufficient contractual capacity last year to the current weakening of external demand and a decrease in orders

——Li Xingqian, Director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a press conference held in February by the National Development and Reform Office.

The data from the two major economies of the European Union and the United States confirm a contraction in demand.

According to data from the United States Department of Commerce, the total import value of the US in April fell 6.6% year on year and the total export value fell 5.7% year on year. This is the third consecutive month of year-on-year decline in US import and export data.

According to Eurostat data, the total value of goods imports in the euro area in March was 243.6 billion euros, down 10% year on year.

Looking at Southeast Asia, which has always competed with China for orders, the import and export data are also not good looking.

According to the Vietnam National Bureau of Statistics, Vietnam's exports fell 5.9% year-on-year in May, the fourth consecutive month of decline;

According to data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce, India's commodity exports decreased by 12.7% year-on-year in April, the lowest point in six months;

Thailand's exports have shown a decline for 7 consecutive months; The Philippines' exports decreased by 9.1% in March.

It can be said that the cold import and export situation is not only a problem faced by China, but also a global trend.

In addition, with the resumption of work after the Spring Festival in March this year, exports experienced a peak of concentrated shipments, driving high export growth in March.

In April last year, during the peak of the epidemic, the export base was low, driving up the year-on-year growth rate of exports in April this year.

By May of this year, these two short-term factors had disappeared, and the impact of the decline in external demand on exports was fully evident.

Why is Zhejiang's data "slightly increasing"?

Despite the decline in imports and exports across the country, Zhejiang has maintained a growth trend in foreign trade.

According to import and export data, in May, Zhejiang's import and export reached 424.29 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9%, with exports reaching 307.43 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0%, and imports reaching 116.86 billion yuan, an increase of 20.7%.

Although growth has been maintained, the growth rate has significantly slowed down. Taking exports as an example, the growth rate dropped from 9.8% in January to April to 5.0%.

Why can Zhejiang maintain a weak growth trend?

Seize orders and see results. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, a large number of enterprises in Zhejiang voluntarily or with the help of the government went to sea to compete for orders, and efforts have been made to see results. "Lu Jing, director of the Department of International Economics and Trade at Zhejiang University, said that the orders signed six months ago have been shipped one after another recently, reflected in export data.

The trend of peak shipment is approaching. The peak period for Christmas supplies shipments in previous years was from June to August, but this year many suppliers have suggested that we ship them earlier. It should be because the poor logistics in the past few years have left them feeling uneasy, "a merchant told Yongjin Jun.

In addition, Zhejiang enterprises have successively placed orders at the Canton Fair.

"The textile enterprises in our province generally do well in receiving orders, and began to ship in May." Ying Xiuzhen, "a veteran foreign trader" and the general manager of China Foundation Huitong, went to the Friendship store in Guangzhou to compare the quality of clothing produced in Bangladesh, Romania and other places with that of domestic products when attending the Canton Fair.

The processing level and auxiliary materials and accessories are all better than brands from Zhejiang, so we need to have confidence in traditional advantageous enterprises, "said Ying Xiuzhen.

The export growth trend of the "new three samples" continues.

Import and export data shows that from January to May, Zhejiang's solar cell exports reached 45 billion yuan, an increase of 30.1%; Lithium battery exports reached 8.81 billion yuan, an increase of 78.3%; The export of electric passenger vehicles reached 13.83 billion yuan, an increase of 99.4%.

This indicates that Zhejiang's related industries have been able to occupy a place in the global market, possessing strong competitiveness and innovation. This is a footnote to the transformation of Zhejiang from low-end processing and manufacturing to high-end manufacturing and service industries.

According to Gao Shiwang, spokesperson for the China Chamber of Electrical and Mechanical Commerce, the high growth rate of the "new three types" exports is mainly due to three reasons: market opportunities brought about by policy environment and industrial changes, China's complete industrial chain and supply capacity, and the promoting role of relevant policies.

Since the "Thousand Regiments and Ten Thousand Enterprises Expanding the Market to Seize Orders Action" at the end of last year, Zhejiang's support policies for foreign trade enterprises have never been interrupted.

According to import and export data, at the end of May, Zhejiang Province introduced 33 special measures to expand the market, increase orders, and stabilize foreign trade. The measures are targeted at the latest foreign trade situation and provide timely rain.

For example, we will strive to maintain the growth momentum of emerging markets and expand our efforts to emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa on the basis of the released 2023 business exhibition catalog. Increase financial support for overseas international exhibitions.

For example, we will increase the support for foreign trade enterprises such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries with sufficient orders, as well as "chain owners" of the industrial chain. Support enterprises with sufficient orders to reasonably expand production capacity and better match international market demand.

Despite facing a contraction in global demand, opportunities still exist. Many experts have analyzed that May is only a temporary fluctuation, not a so-called "turning point".

Lv Daliang, Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, believes that since the beginning of this year, China's economic development has shown a rebound and positive trend, providing strong support for the stable growth of foreign trade.

Xu Yingming, director of the International Market Research Institute of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that RCEP member countries, countries along the "the Belt and Road" and ASEAN countries will become growth points of China's foreign trade development, while green trade and digital trade will become emerging areas of China's foreign trade development, which is expected to continue to grow in the future.

Yongjin Jun News+

Compared to the significant decrease in May denominated in US dollars, during the same period denominated in RMB, imports and exports increased year-on-year, while exports decreased by only 0.8%.

Why are there two pricing methods: RMB and USD?

In fact, in China, regardless of which currency the importer or exporter uses to declare the import or export of goods, the customs must convert the exchange rate one by one, calculate the amount of goods under the two pricing methods of RMB and USD, and then summarize the import and export data separately.

This is for the rigor of statistical data and also to make it more convenient to compare import and export data with other domestic economic indicators.

Why is there such a significant difference in import and export growth rates between RMB denominated and USD denominated?

Li Qilin, a member of the China Chief Economist Forum, analyzed that this is caused by the drastic fluctuations in the exchange rate. Li Qilin introduced in the "Trade Analysis Manual" that when analyzing trade data, we generally refer to dollar pricing data, because most import and export goods are still declared in dollars, and dollar pricing data is closer to the original data when goods are declared, which is relatively more objective.

Therefore, the downward trend of data denominated in US dollars deserves attention. (Translated from: Chao News)