General

Import and export data shows that in May, China's total import and export value increased by only 0.5% year-on-year, a significant decrease from 8.9% in April, and exports decreased by 0.8% compared to the same period last year.

The sharp decline in foreign trade growth rate is related to the high base in the same period last year. Import and export data shows that in May last year, China's import and export growth rate reached 9.6%.

The international market is also one of the reasons for the "sudden warmth returning to cold". Although the World Trade Organization recently released the "Barometer of Goods Trade" report, which raised the global goods trade prosperity index, believing that the global goods trade situation may improve in the second quarter, based on data from South Korea, which is known as the "canary" of the global economy, it is difficult to be optimistic about global trade at the moment.

According to official statistics, South Korean exports decreased by 15.2% year-on-year in May, while imports decreased by 14%. This reflects that under the influence of factors such as high inflation levels and the prolonged escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, the global economic recovery is still faltering, and trade growth is also hindered as a result.

Considering the global economic and trade situation, China's foreign trade performance is currently stable.

On the one hand, the export of key markets and advantageous products remains resilient. Import and export data shows that in the first five months, China's exports to ASEAN, the largest trading partner, increased by 16.4% year-on-year, while exports to the EU, the second largest trading partner, increased by 2.4% year-on-year, both significantly higher than the overall level of China's exports during the same period.

According to official data, China's automobile exports in the first five months were 266.78 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 124.1%; The export of labor-intensive products reached 1.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The "new three types" of electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells are becoming important support for China's exports.

On the other hand, imports have steadily increased. Import and export data shows that in the first five months, China's imports increased by 0.5% year-on-year, and in May, imports increased by 2.3% year-on-year. This indicates that with the accelerated recovery of the domestic economy, imports are also steadily expanding.

Some analysts also pointed out that the high growth of China's foreign trade in April is not the norm, and measuring the performance of foreign trade in May based on April data may be biased.

Citigroup's Chief Economist for Greater China, Yu Xiangrong, stated that there were many one-time factors behind China's high import and export growth in April. For example, some orders were not delivered due to the impact of the epidemic in the second half of last year; After this year's Spring Festival, there has been a "rush to work" effect.

Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicts that considering the gradual release of official policies to stabilize foreign trade, China's foreign trade is expected to achieve a growth rate of 2% in US dollars this year, which is already a good achievement.

What is the situation with the further shrinkage of Sino US trade?

According to Chinese statistics, the total trade value between China and the United States in 2022 increased by 3.7% year-on-year. But in the first five months of this year, the total value of trade between China and the United States decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, further expanding compared to the first four months. According to import and export data, China's exports to the United States reached 1.38 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.5%; Import from the United States reached 508.29 billion yuan, an increase of 3.9%; The trade surplus with the United States reached 87.057 billion yuan, narrowing by 14.5%.

Analysts believe that despite a decrease in trade volume, the economic and trade relations between China and the United States are still closely connected.

From the recent intensive visits of executives from multiple US companies such as Musk to China, it can be seen that the theory of "decoupling" is unpopular.

In the words of Gresse, the former chief economist of the United States Trade Representative Office, although the US tariff policy on China has an impact on bilateral trade, the behavior of consumers and enterprises is more influential than political decision-making.

In fact, the healthy development of China US economic and trade relations has always been the common expectation of business professionals.

Craig Allen, president of the US-China Business Council, said recently that there is competition in the US China bilateral relations, but there are more reasons for cooperation. We should do our utmost to ensure that both countries move forward on the path of not overly focusing on competition and facing the interests of cooperation

He stated that a healthy and balanced economic and trade relationship between the United States and China is in the interests of both sides, and both companies and consumers benefit from it.

Hua Ganglin, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in the People's Republic of China, also said that the US and China have benefited a lot from their trade. The trade between the two countries is "highly integrated", and a sudden impact will have "disastrous consequences" for both the US and China and the world. (Transfer from: Guoshi Express WeChat official account)