General

According to customs data, the total value of China's imports and exports in May was $501.191 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. The total export value was 283.499 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%; The total import value was 217.692 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%; The trade surplus was 65.807 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%.

Since October last year, China's import and export value, export value, and import value, which are denominated in US dollars, have experienced year-on-year declines for several consecutive months. The strong year-on-year growth of 14.8% and 8.5% in total export value for two consecutive months in March and April this year is widely regarded by the outside world as a signal that China's foreign trade is back on track.

With the recovery of trade in these two months, China's total import and export value in US dollars from January to May this year slightly decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, while the total export and import value increased by 0.3% and decreased by 6.7% year-on-year, respectively.

Compared to the year-on-year increase of 2.1% in the total import and export value between China and ASEAN, the largest trading partner, from January to May, to $377.1 billion, the total import and export value between China and major developed economies has almost invariably shrunk.

Customs data shows that in the first five months of this year, China's total import and export value to its second largest trading partner, the European Union, shrank by 3.7% year-on-year to $331.7 billion, while its total import and export value to its third largest trading partner, the United States, fell by 12.3% year-on-year to $274.7 billion. Its total import and export value to Japan and South Korea also fell by 10.4% and 15.5%, respectively, to $131.26 billion and $128 billion.

There are three main reasons behind China's negative export growth rate in May:

Firstly, due to the downward trend of overseas economic growth, especially the significant decline in the growth rate of developed economies such as the United States and Europe, the overall weak external demand is currently evident, which was fully reflected in May. Secondly, after the peak of the epidemic in May last year, China's export growth base has significantly increased, which will also lower the year-on-year growth level of exports in May this year. Thirdly, the market share of China's exports in the United States has recently declined rapidly, with more imports from the United States shifting to Europe and North America. Behind this is the strong resilience of high value durable consumer goods in the US import structure, which also has a certain impact on China's overall exports.

The United States has seen a comprehensive contraction in imports to various economies

On June 7, the United States Department of Commerce released foreign trade data. After the seasonal adjustment in April, the total import value of the United States reached $260.9 billion, down 6.6% year on year; The total export value reached 163.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%.

This is the third consecutive month of year-on-year decline in US import and export data.

Meanwhile, the US trade deficit in April also rose to $97.1 billion, a new high in the past six months. Christopher Rupkey, chief economist of MUFG Bank Bank, said: "The terms of trade are deteriorating, which will reduce the real economic growth in the second quarter to nearly 1% of stagnation."

In addition to the decline in the scale of foreign trade between the United States and China, the trade volume between the United States and other major economies in the world is also shrinking.

According to customs data, the total import value of the United States to the North American Free Trade Agreement Area in April reached 72.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%; The total import value to the European Union was 46.66 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; The total import value to Asian countries as a whole was $100.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%, with only Japan experiencing a year-on-year increase of 5.7% to $12.9 billion.

In terms of exports, the slowdown in global demand, the re appreciation of the US dollar, and the decline in oil exports have all hit the rebound in the total export value of the United States.

The export value of industrial supplies and materials, mainly composed of crude oil and fuel, hit a new low in the past 16 months, which is the direct reason for the unsatisfactory US export data in April.

Structural changes in EU trade

Unlike the United States, where both export and import data declined, the European Union recovered its trade surplus after the energy crisis. However, compared to the rapidly growing export volume, the import volume of the EU market, which has fallen into recession, has further shrunk.

According to the foreign trade data of March released by the Eurostat on May 16, the total export value of goods in the euro area in that month was 269.2 billion euros, up 7.5% year on year; The total import value of goods was 243.6 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 10%; The trade surplus was 25.6 billion euros, an improvement from the trade deficit of 20 billion euros in the same period last year.

It is worth noting that compared to the United States, which has contracted its trade scale with major economies, the international trade of the European Union has undergone structural changes.

Customs data shows that in terms of imports, the EU's total import value to the United States from January to March increased by 15.1% year-on-year to 87.9 billion euros, the total import value to Japan increased by 13% year-on-year to 18.2 billion euros, and the total import value to South Korea increased by 11.9% year-on-year to 18.1 billion euros.

Among the major trading partners, only China and Russia experienced a significant decline in imports, with the EU's imports to Russia plummeting by 72.1% year-on-year to 18.1 billion euros. Russia has also transformed from the EU's third largest trading partner to the ninth largest trading partner.

The EU's imports from China also decreased by 10.6% year-on-year to 132.1 billion euros, but China remains the EU's largest importer of goods.

In terms of exports, the EU's exports to major economies showed a rapid increase from January to March, with the only exceptions being Japan and China. The total export value of the European Union to China and Japan increased slightly by 2.9% and decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, respectively.

Compared with China's stable position in the EU's Import structure, the United States has a Absolute advantage in the EU's export structure.

The structural changes in the EU's foreign trade are also clearly reflected in China's trade balance data with Germany, the largest trading partner within the EU.

According to customs data, the total import and export value of China Germany trade from January to May decreased by 6.1% year-on-year to 87.8 billion US dollars; China's total export value to Germany decreased by 8.3% year-on-year to $43.2 billion; The total import value to Germany decreased by 3.9% year-on-year to $44.6 billion.

On June 5, according to the foreign trade data of April released by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, Germany's exports in that month increased by 1.5% year-on-year to 130.4 billion euros, while its imports fell by 10.3% year-on-year to 112 billion euros. The trade surplus continued to expand.

Specifically for major economies, except for EU member states, China still ranks first with a trade volume of 21.4 billion euros, but the gap between this figure and the 21.1 billion euros trade volume between the United States and Germany is very small.

This also means that the United States may replace China as Germany's largest trading partner this year, after China had been Germany's most important trading partner for seven consecutive years.

The global economy is weak and consumption is weak, leading to a decline in exports from various countries, including South Korea, Vietnam, India, and others. According to customs data, Vietnam's imports and exports in May decreased by 18.4% year-on-year, exports in the first five months decreased by 11%, and South Korea's exports in May decreased by 15.2% year-on-year.